A winning strategy: Bet NFL home underdogs?

Sep 17, 2012 |

Week 2 was either overwhelmingly frustrating or extremely joyous for bettors depending on their strategies. If you love to bet on underdogs, your bankroll probably increased substantially Sunday.

Home underdogs have been very profitable for bettors in the first two weeks of the NFL season going 8-3 (72 percent) against the spread. The Panthers, Colts and Seahawks were just a few of the home teams that rose to the occasion and defied the odds this past Sunday. Home teams are also covering the spread efficiently in the first two weeks at a 60 percent clip (18-12-1), heading into the Monday night game.

Of the 16 games on the schedule in Week 3, at least eight feature a home side opening as an underdog. Nevada-based oddsmaking service, The Sports Club, is suggesting the Colts, Chargers and Broncos could additionally open as underdogs at home this week.

Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Mike Perry told Covers the recent triumphs of home dogs won't be enough for them to alter lines.

"We won’t give that particular trend too much credit as we have enough faith that the (Week 3) opening lines are fairly solid,” Perry said. “I think it’s a matter of bettors maybe not giving home teams enough credit out of the gate to start the season. You have to keep in mind, at this point in the season, every team thinks they have a chance to make the playoffs.”

Covers also asked Perry what has had a bigger impact on the overall profits – home teams winning or dogs winning? “Usually dogs winning,” Perry replied. “This is because on a majority of games we need the underdogs to cover. That’s not the case with home teams.”

There’s no question Sunday was a good day for the books. Arizona knocked off heavily-favored New England, albeit that was a win for the road dog. Nearly 85 percent of the money wagered on the contest at Sportsbook.com was on the visiting Pats.


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