English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Sep 20, 2013 |
Saturday features six matches in the Barclay's Premier League including leaders Liverpool who host a spirited Southampton side with Top 10 aspirations.

We talk to Aron Black at Bet365 to find where action is on some of the hotter fixtures.

Norwich v Aston Villa (+140, +240, +220)

Why bet Norwich:
The Canaries have no real injury concerns and will look to field their strongest XI with the tricky Villains in town. Carrow Road is a tough place to play for visitors as Norwich lost just four games their last season and have one win and one draw in two home matches this season.

Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett

Why bet Aston Villa: Last season, Villa was the only side to get more points on the road than at home and left Carrow Road with a full three points.

Key players out/doubtful:
Charles N'Zogbia, Jores Okore

2012-13 fixture result:
Norwich 1, Villa 2

Key betting note: In 11 matches in all competitions versus Aston Villa, Norwich have just one victory (five draws, five losses).

Liverpool v Southampton (-167, +300, +550)

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds are on top of the table with 10 points and this fixture represents the last test without star-forward Luis Suárez as he serves the last of his 10-match ban. Striker Daniel Sturridge has picked up the goalscoring legwork and is joint-top scorer in the league with four goals.

Key players out/doubtful: Luis Suárez, Philippe Coutinho, Sebastián Coates, Aly Cissokho, Glen Johnson

Why bet Southampton: Liverpool is riddled with injury and the absence of playmaker Philippe Coutinho will be noticeable. Southampton will be waiting for the match when Rickie Lambert and Pablo Osvaldo get on the same page. If/When it does happen, it will be a formidable attacking duo.

Key players out/doubtful: Daniel Fox

2012-13 fixture result:
Liverpool 1, Southampton 0

Key betting note: Southampton has only managed four goals in its last nine league matches.

Where the action is: "The action so far loves the home team, but smart money likes the under 2.5 goals at +100. A game like this is one where a side like Southampton would take the draw from the off, and its very possible that this game is more of a war of attrition than a spectacle of good football"

Newcastle v Hull
(-125, +260, +425)

Why bet Newcastle: Manager Alan Pardew will be able to field the same starting XI that defeated Villa 2-1 last time out. Tricky winger Hatem Ben Arfa is playing arguably his best football since joining the Magpies as he has notched a pair of goals in four matches and leads all players with 13 attempts from open play.

Key players out/doubtful:
Ryan Taylor, Jonás Gutiérrez, Gabriel Obertan, Shola Ameobi

Why bet Hull:
Striker Yannick Sagbo is back after serving a 3-match ban and could replace Danny Graham in the starting XI. Hull has had a predictably slow start to the campaign on just four points, but are coming off a decent draw versus Cardiff.

Key players out/doubtful: Robert Koren

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: Hull is undefeated in its previous five matches versus the Magpies in all competitions.

West Brom v Sunderland (+105, +240, +310)

Why bet West Brom:
The Baggies sit 19th in the table, while the visitors Sunderland sit 20th. Not the most enticing matchup of the day. If anything, West Brom playing at home yields the only advantage. Sunderland has mustered a pathetic five shots on target in its two away matches this season.

Key players out/doubtful: George Thorne, Ben Foster, Zoltán Gera

Why bet Sunderland:
So perhaps the Paolo Di Canio experiment has failed? Sunderland spent money in the window (Jozy Altidore, Emanuele Giaccherini for example) but just can't seem to find a finished a product. This is a talented side on paper, but the clock must be ticking on Di Canio. This team needs a victory more than anyone.

Key players out/doubtful: Phillip Bardsley, Wes Brown

2012-13 fixture result: West Brom 2, Sunderland 1

Key betting note:
The Baggies have six wins and one draw in their last seven matches against Sunderland.

West Ham v Everton (+230, +230, +140)

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers have not scored a goal in three matches and with big Andy Carroll out for some time, goalscoring struggles could continue. Even with their scoring woes, the Hammers are 10th in the table and have allowed just one goal. Their defense can't carry them all season, however. It's time for somebody to step up and score.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Carroll, Alou Diarra, Joe Cole, Stewart Downing

Why bet Everton: It was slow out of the gates for Roberto Martinez and the Toffees, but a huge 1-0 win over Chelsea will have Everton flying high. Young attacker Ross Barkley has been excellent in his four appearances and Seamus Coleman has been a perfect fullback opposite the much-celebrated Leighton Baines.

Key players out/doubtful: Antolin Alcaraz

2012-13 fixture result: West Ham 1, Everton 2

Key betting note: West Ham has just six shots on target thus far, lowest in the league.

Chelsea v Fulham (-333, +475, +1100)

Why bet Chelsea:
World class players all over the pitch. The "Chosen One" back at Stamford Bridge to return the club to its glory days. The deep pockets of Roman Abramovich. All this and the Blues lost at home to a nifty Basel side in Champions League and an away loss to Everton in the league. Fulham is a great opponent to right the ship.

Key players out/doubtful:
Tomas Kalas

Why bet Fulham: Three of Fulham's four points have come on the road as they defeated Sunderland to start their campaign. The Cottagers should have had all three points versus West Brom, but were robbed cruelly at the death in their last match to come out with just one point. Fulham has shown little going forward as striker Dimitar Berbatov is not at his best.

Key players out/doubtful: Maarten Stekelenburg, Bryan Ruiz, Aaron Hughes

2012-13 fixture result:
Chelsea 0, Fulham 0

Key betting note:
Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has never lost a Premier League home game (48 wins, 14 draws).

Where the action is:
"Chelsea, at the price, are one of the bankers for the weekend. Money so far loves the home team, and the big price on Fulham is seeing bits and pieces as well."

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