Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

Oct 31, 2013 |
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action
The Florida State Seminoles are 7-0 O/U this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Florida State Seminoles are 7-0 O/U this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (+8, 54.5)

Arkansas has lost five straight since starting 3-0 while yielding 52 points in each of its two latest setbacks - to No. 18 South Carolina and No. 1 Alabama - while scoring only seven against the Gamecocks and getting blanked by the Crimson Tide. Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall, who injured his shoulder in the Tigers' 45-10 victory over Florida Atlantic last week, is expected to play, according to WBRC Fox 6 Birmingham.

The Razorbacks, who are playing their fifth straight ranked opponent, have the worst offense in the SEC at 20.4 points per game and have only mustered 17 points in their last three games combined. Running back Alex Collins, the first freshman in SEC history to start his career with three 100-yard rushing games, has been held to 79 yards in four games since conference play began.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 9.5-point favorite, but the line has since dropped to 8. The total is set at 54.5.
WEATHER: Clear skies are expected with temperatures in the low-50s.

* Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
* Razorbacks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games.
* Over is 19-7 in Arkansas' last 26 November games.

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-10.5, 55.5)

Missouri still controls its fate in the SEC East, but the 10th-ranked Tigers can't afford another setback when they host upset-minded Tennessee on Saturday. The Tigers' charmed season suffered its first blemish in a 27-24 double-overtime loss to South Carolina last week. The Volunteers knocked off those same Gamecocks two weeks ago, but are coming off a 45-10 thrashing at the hands of top-ranked Alabama.

The Volunteers will hand the reins of the offense to freshman Joshua Dobbs, who will make his first start in place of Justin Worley (thumb). Dobbs was slated for a redshirt before coming off the bench against Alabama and going 5-for-12 for 75 yards. To pull off the upset, Tennessee will need a big game from running back Rajion Neal and a defense that has not fared well against strong offenses.

LINE: Missouri comes in as a 10.5-point favorite, down from an opening line of -13. The total is steady at 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

* Volunteers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 8-3 in Missouri's last 11 games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 66.5)

Oklahoma State will try to stretch its winning streak to five games against No. 15 Texas Tech when the No. 12 Cowboys travel to Lubbock for Saturday night’s Big 12 matchup. The Red Raiders are the first ranked team Oklahoma State will face this season and they entered the week tied for fifth in the nation at 537.1 total yards a game. Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, however, and is 1-7 in the month of November over the last two years.

Josh Stewart is leading the Cowboys in receptions and receiving yards for the second straight season, leaving him 16 yards short of becoming the seventh player in school history to reach 2,000 receiving yards for his career. But Stewart was limited to 20 yards or less in two of the last three games. Chelf hasn’t helped Stewart’s productivity, completing 38 percent of his passes in the seven quarters since he took over for Walsh.

LINE: Texas Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line has moved to 2.5. The total is 66.5.
WEATHER: Fans should expect clear skies and temperatures in the low-60s.

* Cowboys are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games on Fieldturf.
* Red Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with winning road records.
* Over is 6-0 in Texas Tech's last six games following an ATS loss.

Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-27, 57)

The Buffaloes are yielding a conference-worst 287.5 rushing yards per Pac-12 game after giving up an eye-popping 405 against Arizona. Colorado isn't much better against the pass, yielding 268 yards per contest with only seven sacks. The Buffaloes' two best offensive weapons were injured against Arizona as wide receiver Paul Richardson hurt his ankle while freshman running back Michael Adkins II suffered a concussion

The Bruins have struggled without running back Jordon James, who averaged 141.3 yards in three games before injuring his ankle against Utah on Oct. 3 and missed the ensuing three contests since. Sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley appeared to be a Heisman Trophy candidate before throwing two touchdowns and four interceptions in his last two games, but has an opportunity to get his confidence back against Colorado.

LINE: The line has moved slightly from UCLA -26.5 to -27. The total is set at 57.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under sunny skies.

* Buffaloes are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
* Bruins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.
* Under is 25-4 in UCLA's last 29 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-22, 61)

The Hurricanes have won nine straight — their longest streak since winning 10 in a row from Nov. 15, 2003, to Oct. 23, 2004 — yet they're three-touchdown underdogs. Miami's offense was impressive early in the season but has been inconsistent against inferior opponents the past two games. The defense has kept the Hurricanes in the past two contests and boasts 22 sacks and 12 interceptions on the season

The Seminoles have been unstoppable on offense with redshirt freshman Jameis Winston running the show, scoring touchdowns on 54.2 percent of their drives — second-best in the nation. Winston has emerged as a Heisman Trophy contender, as he ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency and has passed for 2,177 yards and 23 touchdowns.

LINE: Florida State has held steady as a 22-point favorite. The total is set at 61.
WEATHER: Skies will be clear with temperatures in the mid-60s.

* Hurricanes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
* Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
* Over is 7-0 in Florida State's last seven games.

UTEP Miners at Texas A&M Aggies (-45.5, 76)

Texas A&M would have been a heavy favorite against Texas-El Paso anyway, but now the No. 14 Aggies will be up against a second-string quarterback when they host the Miners in a nonconference game Saturday night. UTEP quarterback Jameill Showers injured his throwing shoulder in a loss to Rice last weekend and could be lost for the season.

Aggies star quarterback Manziel was limited during practice last week because of a shoulder injury but took the field Saturday against Vanderbilt and threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns in the 56-24 victory. Manziel rushed for career lows of 11 yards on four carries and may take that approach again Saturday to protect his shoulder.

LINE: The line opened with the Aggies a 45-point favorite, and has since risen to 45.5. The total is set at 76.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.

* Miners are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their previous outing.
* Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. Conference USA opponents.
* Over is 6-1 in Texas A&M's last seven home games.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs (-20.5, 73.5)

The Wolf Pack lost to rival UNLV for the first time in nine meetings last week. Cody Fajardo threw for 357 yards in the game, marking the third time in his last four outings that he's gone over 350 yards. Fajardo, whose Mountain West-record streak of 193 passes without an interception was snapped against UNLV, ranks 16th in the nation in completion percentage (67.7).

The Bulldogs blocked a field goal as regulation time expired last week and then got a 1-yard touchdown run from Marteze Waller to post a 35-28 win on the road. Fresno State has won 10 straight games at home, led by Carr, who ranks seventh in the nation in passing with 2,574 yards and is second in touchdowns with 25. The Bulldogs have won two games in overtime this season and has four wins by seven or fewer points.

LINE: The Bulldogs have been locked in as 20.5-point favorites, while the total is steady at 73.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies.

* Wolfpack are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games.
* Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an SU win.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

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