English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Oct 24, 2013 |
English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet
With Benteke and Lukaku on the pitch, there's always a chance for goals.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
With Benteke and Lukaku on the pitch, there's always a chance for goals.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Six matches on the board Saturday as Premier League action continues. Fulham hammered four goals past Crystal Palace last time out, so perhaps the Cottagers have found some form. They'll be tested by the best defensive unit in the league, however, as they travel to St. Mary's Stadium to face Southampton.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 to see where the actions is on some of the hotter fixtures.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal (+1000, +450, -300)

Why bet Crystal Palace: If not for the horrific start by Sunderland, Palace would be dead last in the league with just three points. The Eagles have lost five-straight matches, including an embarrassing performance at home versus Fulham Monday. Nothing has gone right for Ian Holloway and his men in their return to top-flight football.

Key players out/doubtful: Patrick McCarthy, Jack Hunt, Glenn Murray, Jonathan Williams

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners will be bitter and angry at the loss to Borussia Dortmund in Champions League midweek. It was only the second time Arsenal has lost all season and a thumping of Palace at Selhurst Park will cure any residual effects from the disappointing loss.

Key players out/doubtful:
Abou Diaby, Lukas Podolski, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Palace have given up at least two goals in their last five Premier League matches.

Liverpool v West Brom (-225, +375, +700)

Why bet Liverpool: The strike partnership of Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez has been exceptional since the latter's return from suspension. Sturridge is now the leading goalscorer in the league with seven goals on the season, which is more than half of Liverpool's 13 total goals.

Key players out/doubtful: Iago Aspas, José Enrique, Sebastián Coates

Why bet West Brom:
I feel as if saying things like 'West Brom is undefeated in five straight including a victory at Man United and a draw with Arsenal' is the type of nonesense that just doesn't fly. But it's true. The Baggies sit 12th and are playing very good football at the moment. Especially on the road, where they have yet to lose with one victory and three draws.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, George Thorne, Scott Sinclair

2012-13 fixture result:
Liverpool 0, West Brom 2

Key betting note:
The Baggies have won and kept a clean sheet in the past three Premier League matches versus Liverpool.

Where the action is:
"Liverpool see the normal home fave backing at the price, but the Baggies are a popular play for those looking at value dogs this weekend. Goals wise, both Suarez and Sturridge see support at +350 and +375 respectively to score the first goal and Steven Gerrard sees support at +240 to score at anytime."

Aston Villa v Everton (+240, +240, +130)

Why bet Aston Villa:
First and foremost is Christian Benteke, who should return after coming on as a sub against Tottenham last weekend. The Villains have already beaten Arsenal and Man City and are not intimidated by any club. Midfielder Fabian Delph has really come into his own in the holding role and has adapted nicely as the bridge in a young spine along with Benteke and Austrian playmaker Andrea Weimann.

Key players out/doubtful: Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Gary Gardner

Why bet Everton: After a tough loss at Man City, the Toffees got back in the winning column with a 2-1 victory over Hull. The club hasn't missed a beat after the transfer of star player Marouane Fellaini as James McCarthy and Gareth Barry have played well in the holding-mid role. Romelu Lukaku has been as good as it gets leading the line and has four goals in four appearances.

Key players out/doubtful:
Darron Gibson, Antolin Alcaraz, Apostolos Velios

2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 1, Everton 3

Key betting note: Everton has one victory in their last 12 EPL away matches.

Manchester United v Stoke (-300, +450, +1000)

Why bet United: The Red Devils had three points cruelly snatched from their grasp by Southampton last weekend. They rebounded accordingly, however, and dispatched Real Sociedad in Champions League action midweek. Not much has gone right for the club this season, except for the revelation of Adnan Januzaj, the 18-year-old Belgian who followed up his two-goal coming out party with a full 90' performance against Southampton.

Key players out/doubtful: Darren Fletcher

Why bet Stoke: The Potters got out to an excellent start, but that has subsided as they have lost three of their last five matches. Goals have been hard to come by as the side has mustered just one goal in the last five matches and zero in the last three. On the flip side, they are stingy defenders and do a good job at keeping opponents at bay, allowing just seven goals this season.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester United 4, Stoke 2

Key betting note: Man United has won each of the last five EPL meetings with Stoke at Old Trafford.

Where the action is: "Even at +1000, Stoke see only marginal support here, and without a win at Old Trafford on their last 10 visits, the odds say it should be 11 games without a win after tomorrow."

Norwich v Cardiff (+120, +240, +260)

Why bet Norwich: Amazingly, the Canaries find themselves in the relegation zone. They've lost back-to-back games (albeit against Chelsea and Arsenal) and are desperate for points. This side is better than 18th and a home match versus a promoted club will be viewed as a must win.

Key players out/doubtful:
Elliott Bennett

Why bet Cardiff: Things aren't looking good at the Welsh club. Days after appointing a 23-year-old Kazakhstani painter as head of recruitment, Cardiff was thumped 4-1 by Chelsea for the side's second-straight loss. Owner Vincent Tan's bizarre decision has surely unsettled the club and manager Malky Mackay, who had the ousted Iain Moody in his staff since 2011.

Key players out/doubtful: Andreas Cornelius

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: Cardiff has played over the 2.5 goal total in their last three matches.

Southampton v Fulham (-167, +300, +550)

Why bet Southampton: The Saints have been a great story thus far and sit sixth in the table. They are the best side in the league defensively, having allowed just three goals in their first eight matches. There is still work to be done in the final third of the pitch, but that will come as Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana and Pablo Osvaldo become more accustomed to one another.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers put on an incredibly impressive display against Crystal Palace last time out, scoring highlight-reel goals in a 4-1 hammering of the lowly Eagles. Fulham needed to bag some goals after getting off to a dry start and that's exactly when they did. They've now won back-to-back matches and will look for their run of form to continue.

Key players out/doubtful: Matthew Briggs, Aaron Hughes

2012-13 fixture result:
Southampton 2, Fulham 2

Key betting note:
Fulham is unbeaten in its last seven matches versus Southampton in all competitions.

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