Where the action is: Public, sharps split on Bears-Packers

Nov 4, 2013 |
The NFC North’s favorite rivalry headlines the Week 10 finale Monday night. The Packers are big home favorites hosting the Bears at Lambeau Field.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming on Monday Night Football and where the odds could move come kickoff:

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Open: -11, Move: -11.5, Move: -10

With Bears QB Jay Cutler among the long list of injuries on Chicago’s roster, books opened the Packers as big as -11. They braced for early action on the favorite, that being the betting pattern for NFL primetime games, but didn’t start to see real wagering action on this divisional grudge match until Sunday.

According to Stewart, action came in on Green Bay and tacked a half-point hook on the spread which prompted wiseguys to take the underdog and force a big move to -10.5.

“It's a game where the public is backing the favorite, sharps are on the dog,” Stewart tells Covers. “So far, 65 percent of the action is on the favorite and I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to Packers -11, but we really like our position on this game. “

As for Monday’s total, the number opened as low as 49 points at some books. All the action pounded the Over, driving this total to as high as 51. Chicago has started the season 6-1 Over/Under while Green Bay is 4-3 O/U.

“Again, with this being a standalone game with one of the more prolific offenses in the NFL (Packers), we're concerned about getting too much Over money,” says Stewart. “So far 60 percent of the action is on the Over and at this point I can't see us moving this total anytime soon.”

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View