Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 13.
Most passing yards
Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
Mike Glennon has quietly improved since taking over the Bucs starting quarterback job earlier this season, and he's seen his passing yardage increase in each of the last three games. While he faces a stiff challenge in the form of an elite Panthers defense, he also catches Carolina in a clear letdown spot off a big Monday night home win over the Patriots and a huge come-from-behind victory in Miami last Sunday.
The Panthers offense remains conservative in nature, as evidenced by the fact that Cam Newton has thrown for 209 yards or less in three straight games. While the Bucs may be a bottom-tier squad at 3-8 on the season, their pass defense has not been weak by any means, allowing only 6.6 yards per pass play, with that number dropping to 5.8 over their last three games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tennessee Titans) vs. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
Andrew Luck won the passing yardage battle in the first matchup between these two teams this season, and I expect him to deliver a repeat performance here.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has actually performed well since replacing an injured Jake Locker three weeks ago, throwing for 262, 222 and 320 yards. However, the Colts know what to expect having just seen him run the Titans offense two weeks ago, and I expect them to do a much better job against him after he completed nearly 79 percent of his passes in that contest.
Luck is coming off a bad game in Arizona. Those have been few and far between. Prior to that ugly game, Luck had thrown for over 200 yards in seven straight contests. He bounces back in this spot.
Most rushing yards
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs. Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland Browns)
I'm not going to overthink this one. Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off his best performance of the season, running for 84 yards on only 14 carries last week. He's scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, and I'm confident we'll see the Jags lean heavily on their star running back against an opportunistic Browns defense on Sunday.
Chris Ogbonnaya is the Browns starting running back, essentially by default. With that being said, he's carried the ball only 12 times over the last two games. He's run for a nice average, but I don't see him getting enough touches to outrun Jones-Drew on Sunday. The Jags defense has actually been tough on opposing runners lately, giving up just 2.4 yards per rush over their last three games.
Most pass receptions
Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) vs. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)
Since hauling in eight catches back in Week 8 against the Giants, DeSean Jackson has made only 13 catches combined in his last three games. However, he's still a big part of the Eagles offense, and I'm expecting him to have a big day against a Cardinals defense that might be a little high on its horse after four consecutive wins.
Larry Fitzgerald will obviously see blanket coverage from the Eagles defense on Sunday. While he continues to get plenty of pass targets, the fact is, he's topped out at six catches in 10 games since bringing in eight catches back in the opening week of the season.