English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Aug 22, 2013 |
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's action in the Barclay's Premier League.

We talked to Aron Black at Bet365 to get some input about the betting action for a few of Saturday's matches.

Fulham v Arsenal (+300, +250, +105)

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers got their season off to a great start by defeating Sunderland 1-0 last weekend and a win in their debut at Craven Cottage would have Fulham supporters on top of the world. Arsenal could be ripe for the picking following a disheartening 3-1 loss versus Aston Villa. If Fulham is to get a positive result from this fixture, they'll have to do it without No. 1 keeper Maarten Stekelenburg who is out with a shoulder injury. David Stockdale will replace the big Dutch keeper.

Key players out/doubtful: Maarten Stekelenburg, Kieran Richardson, Fernando Amorebieta, Alexander Kacaniklic

Why bet Arsenal: Arsenal attempted to erase the memories of its humiliating 3-1 home defeat to Villa a week ago with a great performance versus Fenerbache in Champions League Qualifying midweek. The Gunners looked much better winning comfortably by a score of 3-0. The back four will be thin with Laurent Koscielny out with suspension following his red card versus Villa.

Key players out/doubtful: Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Vermaelen, Vassiriki Abou Diaby, Mikel Arteta, Yaya Sanogo, Ryo Miyaichi, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

2012-13 fixture result: Fulham 0, Arsenal 1

Key betting note: The Cottagers closed the 2012-13 season with four straight home losses.

Where the action is:
"Given their first week performance, Arsenal was not seeing near the action we would expect on them, or what we would expect at their price as a road fav. Following the midweek performance, the punters are finding Arsenal a little more fashionable, but still not to the degree that would have been expected. Injuries still an issue, but they did get some players back for the Fenerbache match, however the quick turnaround and rather long travel may come back to haunt them on Saturday."

Everton v West Brom (-175, +320, +550)

Why bet Everton:
After a season opening 2-2 draw away to Norwich, Everton will be keen to play its first home match in front of the Goodison Park faithful. The Toffees were the third best home team in 2012-13, behind only Manchester United and Manchester City, boasting a record of 12 wins, six draws, and just one defeat. There has been a lot of transfer rumblings in the blue half of Liverpool, with United looking at a double swoop for highly rated LB Leighton Baines and MF Marouane Fellaini, but they are still Toffees, for the time being at least.

Key players out/doubtful: Antolin Alcaraz, Magaye Gueye, Sylvain Distin, Darron Gibson, Tony Hibbert

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies were unlucky to come out of the match against Southampton with zero points after a 90' penalty gave Southampton the full points in heartbreaking fashion. With striker Nicolas Anelka excused from the team for personal reasons, Matej Vydra should get the start up front.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, George Thorne, Nicolas Anelka, Steven Reid

2012-13 fixture result: Everton 2, West Brom 1

Key betting note: These two clubs have met 14 times in the Barclay's Premier League. Only one match has resulted in a draw.

Hull v Norwich (+145, +240, +210)

Why bet Hull: Hull can take a silver lining from the fact that Chelsea jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead last Sunday, but didn't concede again. It will be a tall order for Hull to survive the campaign, but a victory over Norwich would do wonders for confidence. Norwich only managed 13 points away from home in 2012-13 and were the third-worst performers on the road.

Key players out/doubtful: Stephen Quinn, Abdoulaye Faye

Why bet Norwich: The Canaries will be a bit disappointed they only mustered the one point at home against Everton in the opening match to their season. They can find solace with the fact that record signing Ricky van Wolfswinkel netted a goal in his debut and the side should be bolstered by the return of Leroy Fer and Sébastien Bassong.

Key players out/doubtful: Gary Hooper, Elliott Bennett

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: The Canaries have gone over the 2.5 goal total in seven of their previous eight matches in the Premier League.

Newcastle v West Ham (+130, +240, +240)

Why bet Newcastle:
Things really couldn't be worse for Newcastle United. They were throttled by Man City in their season opener. CB Steven Taylor will miss the game after he picked up a red card versus City. Midfielder Yohan Cabaye will likely miss out with a few clubs showing interest in the French international. A win would do wonders for gaffer Alan Padrew and the club, but at this stage, it's a tall ask for the troubled Tyneside club.

Key players out/doubtful: Jonás Gutiérrez, Loïc Remy, Massadio Haidara, Ryan Taylor, Steven Taylor, Yohan Cabaye

Why bet West Ham: It looks as if boss Sam Allardyce will leave the starting XI that defeated Cardiff in tact for this one. The Hammers got off to a dream start at home, defeating the newly-promoted Cardiff side 2-0 on goals from Joe Cole and Kevin Nolan. Fun stat o' the day: The Hammers were the only club to keep Newcastle off the scoreboard in both the home and away fixture in 2012-13.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Carroll, Razvan Rat, Stewart Downing

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 0, West ham 1

Key betting note:
Dating back to include the final two matches last season, Newcastle has lost three matches in a row. The Magpies have never lost four straight in the Premier League.

Where the action is: "The draw is the most popular bet so far for this fixture, with the visitors seeing some solid support at the price.
Newcastle will be without Steven Taylor, and possibly Yohan Cabaye after recent bid from Arsenal and speculation that PSG are in the frame to outbid them."

Southampton v Sunderland (-138, +280, +450)

Why bet Southampton:
The Saints have quietly put together a very competitive squad. Earlier in the week, the Saints bolstered their attack with the addition of Pablo Daniel Osvaldo from Roma. The club has already gotten three points in the bank following Ricky Lambert's late penalty against West Brom and will look to keep their winning ways in front of the home crowd at St. Mary's.

Key players out/doubtful: Nathaniel Clyne

Why bet Sunderland: Sunderland has added many pieces to the side, but they have yet to gel as was evidence in their 1-0 loss to Fulham last week. The side will look to improved performances from newcomers like Jozy Altidore and Emanuele Giaccherini, but they will need great performances from the entire XI if they want to leave St. Mary's with any points.

Key players out/doubtful: Wes Brown, Phillip Bardsley, Modibo Diakité, Lee Cattermole, Steven Fletcher

2012-13 fixture result:
Southampton 0, Sunderland 1

Key betting note: Sunderland have lost six of the previous seven Premier League away matches.

Stoke v Crystal Palace (-118, +250, +400)

Why bet Stoke: An Herculean effort from keeper Asmir Begovic wasn't enough to record any points against Liverpool in last week's fixture. Begovic tallied 10 saves, some sensational, but Stoke just couldn't find the back of the net. An issue which very well may plague the side throughout the course of the season. Again. The Potters only managed 34 goals last season. Only relegated QPR had fewer goals.

Key players out/doubtful: Brek Shea, Wilson Palacios

Why bet Crystal Palace:
Palace lost their opener 1-0 at home to Tottenham, but the newly promoted side threatened to score after manager Ian Holloway brought on attackers in the second half. One of those subs, striker Marouane Chamakh, played well enough that he may feature in the starting XI.

Key players out/doubtful: Glenn Murray, Jerome Thomas, Yannick Bolasie, Jonathan Parr

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Stoke have tallied just three goals in the previous six home matches in the Premier League.

Aston Villa v Liverpool (+300, +275, -105)

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains, already having beaten Arsenal, were in it to win midweek away to Chelsea. They squandered the lead early via an own goal, but pulled even through, who else, Christian Benteke. Chelsea took the three points, however, after Branislav Ivanovic's 72' goal. The Villains have opened the season against top-level talent, and performed well. It doesn't get any easier with Liverpool coming to Villa Park Saturday.

Key players out/doubtful: Charles N'Zogbia

Why bet Liverpool: Even without Luis Suarez (who now has five games to serve in his suspension), Liverpool looked threatening going forward in their opener versus Stoke. Star-in-the-making Philippe Coutinho was brilliant with the ball at his feet, constantly looking for the killer pass into the box. But really, the star of the show was new keeper Simon Mignolet who made one spectacular save after another en route to the clean sheet versus the Potters.

Key players out/doubtful: Sebastián Coates, Luis Suárez, Martin Skrtel

2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 1, Liverpool 2

Key betting note: Liverpool have conceded just five goals in their previous 14 Premier League matches at Villa Park.

Where the action is: "This one has the most balanced action on all outcomes. The main thing for those looking to back the Villans, is that they will be playing their 3rd game in a week come Saturday, and with such a young team, it may be some tired legs that betrays them later in this game. While Suarez still remains unavailable, its going to be tough to ensure they finish the chances being created, but Sturridge and Coutinho showed late last season that they could do the business without Suarez, and it wont be a shock if they do so again on Saturday."

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