Inside the stats: 5-0 NCF teams beware Game 6 trend

Oct 9, 2013 |
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. 

Here are this week’s findings:

Leaking oil

When a team has been out gained in each of its three previous games it is refered to them as “leaking oil”.

Like a bad engine not hitting on all cylinders, they not only burn combustion but money as well, especially when cast in to the role of a favorite.

There have been six college football and three NFL teams that have been installed as “leaking oil” favorites this season. Collectively they are 1-8 ATS (0-6 CFB; 1-2 NFL).

Last week saw Southern Mississippi (-16) and the Miami Dolphins (-3) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.

This week’s Pennzoil plays would be against: Arkansas State, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Troy in college football, along with the Vikings in the NFL.

5-0 fat cats

It’s the time of the season in which undefeated college football teams begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game – especially those squads that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.

Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to playing on these 5-0 clubs as Game 6 is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these fat cats. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 260-112-6 SU and 161-186-5 ATS overall. Hence, the bubble bursts over 30 percent of the time in Game 6 situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note. 

Worse, if these guys find themselves either pick or favored in a conference game, they dip to 62-88-3 ATS. 

The week’s list includes the likes of Louisville on Thursday, along with Clemson, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas Tech on Saturday.

And if these same 5-0 teams won 10 or fewer regular season games last season, and are off a spread win of nine or more points in their last game, they fall to 14-34-1 ATS, including 3-16 ATS if they are home and allowed 21 or fewer points in their last game. 

As one of our all time favorite bands - the Traveling Wilburys - once said, it just might be the “End Of The Line” for the Red Raiders and the Tigers this weekend.

Double entendres

As you know, we enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning games “inside-out”.

When their opponent suffered a loss, yet won the stats, these become double-entendres - or matchups of two teams off completely opposite SU and ITS (In The Stats) results.

No less the five games dot the NFL schedule this week involving double-entendres. They include (with the game loser/stat winner listed first: Carolina-Minnesota, Houston-St. Louis, Jacksonville-Denver, Pittsburgh-N.Y. Jets and San Diego-Indianapolis.

The Chargers-Colts clash features both teams off 100-yard inside-out results.

Highs and lows

Last week, there were some really high-scoring games (99 points in Dallas, 62 points in Indianapolis, 61 points in Cleveland) and some low- scoring games (19 points in Cincinnati, 28 points in Arizona, 31 points in Green Bay).

After five weeks the oddsmakers have done a very good job balancing out their totals, with 40 Overs and 37 Unders.

The best Over situations have been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC), going 19-8 O/U on the season, including 4-1 O/U last week.

Stat of the Week

USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron was 0-23 straight up overall in games versus .500 or greater opponents as a head coach at Ole Miss.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View