Inside the stats: AFC vs. NFC producing Over winners

Oct 16, 2013 |
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. 

Here are this week’s findings:

Leaking oil scorecard

When a team has been outgained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as “leaking oil”.

There have been 10 college football and four NFL teams that have been installed as “leaking oil” favorites this season. Collectively, they are 2-12 ATS (1-9 NCAAF/1-3 NFL).

Last week saw Connecticut (-3.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) laying points. They both lost straight up.

This week’s “leaking oil” plays would be against: Akron, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rice and Temple in college football, along with Detroit, Miami and the N.Y. Giants in the NFL.

Deep six

With the season approaching the midway point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game 6 situations.

Our database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off a loss. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.

These savvy travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in Game 6 scenarios, going 103-73-3 ATS in all games since 1980. That represents a rock-solid 60 percent winning spread mark.

This week finds Navy patrolling the waters in this “Deep Six” scenario.

Better yet, when priced as dogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 42-21-1 ATS.
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe off win who sports a .500 or greater record, as they improve to 25-8-1 ATS in these spirited battles, including 18-3-1 ATS in games in which the foe allows 14.8 or more PPG on the season.

Mr. Clean

To a football player, winning games on the playing field is practically as good as winning them on the scoreboard.

It means your team outplayed the other team, regardless of what the final score said. It’s also a strong indicator of what results we can expect in future games.

Here is a list of college football teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) in all games this season to date:

• Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, UCLA and Western Kentucky.

Here is a list of college football teams that are winless ITS (In The Stats) this season:

• Akron, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State and Temple.

In the NFL, the only perfect ITS team is Houston (surprise), while the winless ITS clubs include Miami, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

Highs and lows

The average total in the 14 NFL games last week was 45.5.  The average total points per game was 43.8.

The average game went Under by -1.7 points. Strange, considering 60 percent of the overall games went Over the total (9-6).

It was the second straight week in which there were more Overs than Unders.

The best Over situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC).  These games have gone 22-10 O/U.

This week’s potential non-conference Overs would be: Cincinnati at Detroit, San Francisco at Tennessee and Cleveland at Green Bay.

Stat of the Week

The Miami Dolphins are 3-19 ATS as home favorites in games in which they own a win percentage of .454 or higher.

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