English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Oct 18, 2013 |
After what seems like an eternity since we last saw England's top clubs on the pitch, the Premier League returns after the international break.

We talk to Aron Black at Bet365 to find where action is on some of the hotter fixtures.

Newcastle v Liverpool (+350, +290, -120)

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies stopped a two-match losing skid with a 2-1 win away to Cardiff. Believe it or not, ex-Marseille star Loïc Remy is second in the league with five goals after his brace at Cardiff.

Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor, Fabricio Coloccini

Why bet Liverpool: After a blip in their home loss to sizzling Southampton, the Reds have posted back-to-back wins and sit second in the table. It's like Luis Suárez hasn't missed a beat, as the Uruguayan has tallied three goals in two games since returning from his 10-match ban.

Key players out/doubtful: Philippe Coutinho, Sebastián Coates, Iago Aspas

2012-13 fixture result: Newcastle 0, Liverpool 6

Key betting note: Liverpool have seen more than 2.5 goals in 14 of its last 16 away games in the Premier League.

Where the action is: "The away price looks on the short side given the kickoff time after the Internationals, however the Reds see a lot of support to take the three points. Newcastle has their supporters, but the value on them may lie in backing Loic Remy to score anytime at +200. A fixture that has thrown up at least two of the most memorable Premier League matches, and as is often the case, 4-3 as a correct score sees traditional backing (Liverpool 4-3 +8000, Newcastle 4-3 +12500) Over 2.5 goals sees a fair amount of backing at -154."

Arsenal v Norwich (-333, +475, +1100)

Why bet Arsenal: Top of the table and their injury list calming down of late, the Gunners have won five and drawn one since losing their first match of the season. Theo Walcott is available once again but will probably start from the bench.

Key players out/doubtful:
Abou Diaby, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Yaya Sanogo.

Why bet Norwich:
Norwich added a lot of pieces to the side in the transfer window, but those pieces have yet to mesh. The Canaries have been wildly inconsistent to start the campaign but field a competitive side. Their goalscoring purchases - Ricky Van Wolfswinkel and Gary Hooper - are capable, but must start contributing for the side to succeed.

Key players out/doubtful:
Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett

2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 3, Norwich 1

Key betting note: Arsenal have just three clean sheets in its last 14 league games at the Emirates.

Chelsea v Cardiff (-450, +600, +1400)

Why bet Chelsea: Chelsea could be the poster child for inconsistency this season with their last six results going W, D, L, W, D, W. The Blues are third in the table and it looks like the dynamic Juan Mata could find a spot in Mourinho's starting XI. Finally.

Key players out/doubtful: Marco van Ginkel, Fernando Torres, Ashley Cole

Why bet Cardiff:
Cardiff will aim for survival in the top flight and getting any result at Stamford Bridge is a tall order for the newly-promoted club. The Bluebirds will have their hands full with Chelsea's magical creative players. They will flood the middle of the park in an effort to secure at least a draw.

Key players out/doubtful:
Andreas Cornelius

2012-13 fixture result:

Key betting note: Chelsea has scored at least two goals in the previous eight league matches at Stamford Bridge.

Everton v Hull
(-222, +350, +800)

Why bet Everton: After jumping out to a quick 1-0 at Man City in their last match, Everton tasted defeat for the first time under Roberto Martinez as City prevailed 3-1. The Toffees boast one of the best strikers in the league (by way of Chelsea) in Romelu Lukaku who has four goals thus far.

Key players out/doubtful: Antolin Alcaraz, Darron Gibson

Why bet Hull: The Tigers sit just one point back of Everton in eighth in the league table and have eight points in their last four matches. They must play tidy defense, which has eluded the club away from home. The Tigers have given up one goal at home, but conceded six in their three away matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Robert Koren, James Chester, Robbie Brady

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note:
The Toffees have been winning at the half and full time in eight of their last nine home matches in the league.

Where the action is:
"A tough away fixture for any team at Goodison Park. Everton are unbeaten at home in the calendar year, and have great home support from their crowd. Everton are well supported here to take the 3 points, as impressive as Hull's start has been, their lack of goals will cause concern for anyone wishing to back them."

Manchester United v Southampton
(-167, +320, +525)

Why bet United:
The Red Devils have not gotten off to the best of starts under David Moyes and this fixture will prove to be a tough one. A bevy of United players served for their countries this past week and fatigue could be a concern. Wayne Rooney could be hitting his stride as he's been playing well for both club and England.

Key players out/doubtful:
Darren Fletcher

Why bet Southampton:
On the contrary, the Saints have been playing incredibly strong football under their new-ish boss Mauricio Pochettino. The Saints have won three straight and confidence will be at an all-time high. Exciting LB Luke Shaw, who missed the victory over Swansea, should return to a defense that has allowed a league-low two goals in seven matches.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

2012-13 fixture result:
United 2, Southampton 1

Key betting note: United hasn't lost back-to-back home matches in the league since 2002.

Where the action is:
"Its not the best of times for Man United, and this is a fixture that could definitely pose them problems. They see a lot of support from the punters who feel the price on them is too big, and although the away side has been good so far, its hard to get too excited about 5/1 at Old Trafford."

Stoke v West Brom (+138, +220, +240)

Why bet Stoke: A tough run of games for the Potters, who have lost three straight heading into this one. On the plus side, the squad is basically healthy and Mark Hughes needs to use this fixture to return to the winning column, or else potentially place the club in the relegation zone.

Key players out/doubtful:

Why bet West Brom:
The Baggies have gone four straight without suffering defeat and even won at Old Trafford over United. Quietly, the club has put together a dangerous side going forward with Morgan Amalfitano, Stéphane Sessegnon, and Nicolas Anelka.

Key players out/doubtful:
Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, Chris Brunt, Scott Sinclair

2012-13 fixture result: Stoke 0, West Brom 0

Key betting note:
Stoke has kept West Brom off the scoreboard in six of the last eight meetings with West Brom.

Swansea v Sunderland (-167, +300, +550)

Why bet Swansea:
The Swans, a much celebrated side leading into the season, have not produced the quality of football that we've expected. There's still time, and a home fixture against the league's worst club could be just what the Welsh outfit need. New signing Wilfried Bony must start chipping in with goals as Michu can't carry the side alone.

Key players out/doubtful:
Garry Monk, Ashley Williams

Why bet Sunderland: Because they have to win at some point? The team is in absolute disarray and has one point in seven matches as they toil at the bottom of the table. It's not good. But perhaps new manager Gus Poyet can inject some life into this otherwise insipid club.

Key players out/doubtful:
Phillip Bardsley, Wes Brown

2012-13 fixture result:
Swansea 2, Sunderland 2

Key betting note:
The Swans have given up at least two goals in their last five matches in the league.

West Ham v Man City (+450, +290, -143)

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers are coming off a massive victory over Tottenham at White Hart Lane in their last game and will look to keep momentum going. City have not played well away from home yet and could be ripe for the picking at Upton Park.

Key players out/doubtful:
Andy Carroll, Alou Diarra, James Collins

Why bet City: If City wants to win the league, they need three points from away fixtures like this one. The void left by the injured Vincent Kompany is glaring, but a club with the deepest of pockets should have a contingency plan. New manager Manuel Pellegrini plays a more attacking style then has been seen at City, so perhaps that contingency plan is to score five, six or seven goals.

Key players out/doubtful:
Martín Demichelis

2012-13 fixture result:
West Ham 0, City 0

Key betting note: City has lost just one of their last 12 league matches versus City (three draws).

Where the action is:
"City have not performed as most would expect, however with the quality in depth that they have, they are always going to be supported, and this game is no different with majority of action on the Citizens to take the three points."

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