Strategies for betting MLB team totals

Jul 4, 2013 |
Baseball is front and center in the betting world for the next couple months, so it's a good time to review MLB betting strategies.

Here are a few MLB team totals betting tips from an article recently published by Pinnacle Sports:

1) Gauging the juice

There is generally not enough action for books to deal these lines as sharp as they would a total or a runline. The key is to make sure you’re getting a good number and take solace in the fact you’re giving these lines more attention than the book is.

2) Common mistakes in calculating team totals

Myth: The two team totals should add up to the total for the game.

The article reads:

“If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, you could safely bet the game to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That’s the way runs are distributed. It’s possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it’s impossible to score less than 0.”

3) Over or Under while playing team totals?

If the two team totals add up to a half run less than the game total, it’s a good idea to bet the under as long as the combined juice is small.

The article reads:

“Squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they’d like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.”

4) Soft Lines

If a bettor wagers the mathematically incorrect side of a team total, especially if this happens twice, chances are this will move the line and cause it to present value. Sometimes, you may be lucky enough to find a line that has gone in the opposite direction of the main betting lines.

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