If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.
The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.
“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”
The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.
“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)
Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.
“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)
This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.
“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)
This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.
“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”
Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.