Covers Expert Sean Murphy isn’t satisfied with just betting spreads and totals. He’s opening the door to the NFL Prop Shop, giving you his best player prop picks for Week 14.
Most passing yards
Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)
The Chiefs have opened up their offense over the last couple of weeks, with Alex Smith passing for just shy of 600 yards. There's little reason to expect anything different this week, as they should come out aggressively against a down-trodden Redskins defense.
The Washington offense is broken. I don't think I'm the only one that holds that opinion. Last Sunday, we saw the 'Skins orchestrate a nice opening drive, but after scoring a touchdown early in the second quarter, they were lifeless the rest of the way. RGIII has been off his game all season, and his supporting cast hasn't been much better. With the Chiefs in line for a strong bounce-back performance defensively, look for Griffin's struggles to continue.
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
The Colts have done everything they can to prove they can be a physical, ground-oriented offensive team this season, but it's come at the expense of Andrew Luck's numbers. Luck threw for nearly 4,400 yards last season. He's reached only 2,793 passing yards this year, with his yards per pass average dropping from 7.0 to 6.7.
Cincinnati's aerial attack has been inconsistent at best this season, but with Andy Dalton coming off back-to-back poor outings, I look for a positive response against the Colts. Note that Dalton has still thrown for over 270 yards in five of his last seven games. He and A.J. Green should be in for a big day against a Colts defense that gives up 12.5 yards per pass completion.
Most rushing yards
C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills) vs. Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
C.J. Spiller returned to form last week against Atlanta, running for 149 yards on 15 carries in Toronto. With that being said, 77 of those yards came on a single rush. He also suffered an ankle injury in that contest, and while he should be good to go this Sunday, I don't expect him to have another big day on the ground.
Bucs RB Bobby Rainey has been bright spot in an otherwise dismal season, busting out with over 300 yards rushing over his last four games. The last time we saw the Bucs play here at home, they leaned heavily on Rainey, as he carried the ball 30 times for 163 yards. They should employ a similar gameplan against a Bills defense that has given up 4.9 yards per rush over their last three contests.
Most pass receptions
Nate Burleson (Detroit Lions) vs. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)
The Eagles offense has been flying high under the guidance of QB Nick Foles, and DeSean Jackson has obviously played a major role as well. With that said, I'm going to go contrarian with this play, and back Nate Burleson in his third game back from injury.
Burleson wasn't a factor in last week's win over Green Bay, but remember, just two weeks ago, he caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. The Packers keyed on him last week, but I don't expect to see him garner quite as much attention from the Eagles secondary on Sunday.
For all of the yardage, not to mention seven touchdowns, DeSean Jackson has racked up this season, he's actually been held to only 11 catches over the last three games.