UFC TUF 16 Finale: Roy Nelson (-210) vs. Matt Mitrione (+160)
In the five-round TUF 16 Finale main event, former Season 10 winner of The Ultimate Fighter, Roy Nelson, takes on fellow TUF alum Matt Mitrione in what should be a hard-hitting heavyweight affair.
Nelson is coming off a massive one-punch knockout win over Dave Herman at UFC 146 and was set to fight Shane Carwin until a knee injury took him out of the fight. Nelson has knockout power as well as a slick ground game, but his cardio is going to be tested by Mitirone in a five-round fight.
Mitrione took this fight on relatively short notice, but he’s a very athletic guy who always shows up in great shape, so despite the late notice and a long injury layoff himself, he should still have better cardio than Nelson.
Mitrione has bombs in his hands, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to knock out the iron-chinned Nelson. His best chance is to make it a dirty fight and try to take it into the deep waters and grind out the decision.
The fight is going to take place primarily on the feet and, in a five-round fight, I see Nelson eventually being able to catch Mitrione with one of his bomb and finishing him off with a TKO.
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