Where the action is: Sharps on Thursday Under trend

Sep 26, 2013 |
The NFC West is in the Thursday spotlight in Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers face the St. Louis Rams, with books setting the Rams as home underdogs – a role that’s paid out at a 61.5 percent rate this season (8-5 ATS).

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on the Thursday Night Football matchup and where oddsmakers see the line closing come kickoff:

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
(+3, 42)

This line opened San Francisco -4 and early public action pounded the road side, sliding the spread to Niners -4.5 before sharp action took the discounted home team. Wiseguys money has forced this line down as low as -3 at some books, banking on a banged-up San Francisco side which is missing key players on both sides of the ball.

Since that move to the key number, action on the 49ers has been steady with 72 percent of the handle resting on San Francisco. According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, they are at 3.5 and could see the spread getting back to Niners -4 before kickoff.

“It's a case where the sharps are against the public and, while we always side with the sharp action, we have to respect the amount of money coming in on the 49ers because at this point, it's getting too lopsided on the 49ers,” Stewart tells Covers.

As for the Thursday total, the number was posted as high as 43.5 and has been bet down to as low as 41.5 with both teams struggling to score in the first three weeks of the schedule. Sharp money has been the big reason behind the move down but like in all primetime games, the betting public tends to side with the Over.

“While more money has come in on the over, we respect the sharp under bet and we also have an opinion on the total and like it under as well,” says Stewart. “These Thursday night games have been trending under since last year.”

In fact, the Thursday games went 7-11 over/under last year, including the three Thanksgiving Day games. If you take those out of the equation, that record shifts to 4-11 over/under. This season, the three Thursday Night Football games have produced a 1-2 O/U mark.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View