NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report

Oct 22, 2012 |
NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report
Can Andy Reid work his bye week magic with Mike Vick and the Eagles?
Can Andy Reid work his bye week magic with Mike Vick and the Eagles?
Going undefeated through the first seven weeks of the NFL schedule isn’t what it used to be.

The Atlanta Falcons, who are 6-0 SU and coming off a bye week, aren’t getting much respect from oddsmakers in Week 7. The Falcons are 1-point road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles – a 3-3 team that is coming off back-to-back losses before the bye. Some offshores opened Philadelphia as high as -2.5.

Plenty of bettors are pointing to Eagles head coach Andy Reid, who is notorious for strong showings coming off the bye week. He's 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS following a week off while Philadelphia, as a franchise, owns a 19-4 SU and a 16-7 ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“I don’t know what people like about Philly,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “I can only go by how they’re playing. And right now, they’re not playing that well.”

Korner says he was the only member of his five-person oddsmaking team that favored Atlanta on the road. He says his service only sent out Philadelphia -1 because they knew what the online books were going to post for Week 7.

“They have some serious chemistry issues,” Korner says about the Eagles. “In football, it is such a violent and emotional game, that chemistry keeps it all together.”

Philadelphia dropped to 3-3 SU (1-4-1 ATS) after a fourth-quarter collapse in a 26-23 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 6. That cost defensive coordinator Juan Castillo his job – a bullet many insiders suggest Castillo took for Reid, who has come under fire for his choice to stand by QB Michael Vick, despite Vick’s lackluster performances and turnover troubles (eight INTs, six fumbles).

“Vick doesn’t even look like he’s f-ing trying out there,” says Korner. “He seems like he’s going through the motions.”

The Falcons, on the other hand, remained perfect with a 23-20 win over the Oakland Raiders at home in Week 6. Atlanta failed to cover the 9.5-point spread and is just 1-2 ATS in its past three outings, sitting at 4-2 ATS on the year.

“What’s not to like about Atlanta?” asks Korner.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Following a Week 1 loss to the Cowboys, the Giants have slowly built momentum and enter Week 7 at 5-2 SU off a tough win over the Washington Redskins this past weekend. However, oddsmakers have tabbed Dallas as a 1-point home favorite for this NFC East grudge match.

“The Giants are a big-game team and this is a revenge situation for them,” says Korner, who was the only member of his oddsmaking team to favor New York. “I sat there for about 60 seconds in silence before I put out what I wanted. This game is basically a pick’em. At one, you’re basically picking the winner.”

Korner says both sides have a loyal following so it may be hard to anticipate the late action. That massive fan base, along with the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff will make this game the most-bet contest on the board this coming Sunday.

“All that early money is going to funnel right into this game,” says Korner. “It will be the biggest game and will be the deciding game for books. It will have more money on it than the New Orleans-Denver Sunday night game.”

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 54.5)

Both teams look like they’ve got their grooves back heading into this Sunday night showdown of elite quarterbacks.

Drew Brees and the Saints are putting the pieces back together following back-to-back wins while Peyton Manning and the Broncos had the week off after their thrilling comeback win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.

Offshore books opened Denver a near-touchdown favorite, however, The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Broncos -3.5.

Korner says there are two ways of looking at these numbers: Denver is good and has been very good at home. And, New Orleans is getting hot and is a very dangerous team.

“One more win and they’re right back to where they should be,” Korner says of the Saints. “Denver has the respect at home and offshore books have made that very clear.”

Korner believes the action is going to come in on New Orleans, with plenty of sharp money on the underdog come Sunday night.

“That’s not a bad place to be, especially for these marquee games,” he says of wise guys wagering on the dog. “This is going to be a great game to watch.”

The total for Sunday Night Football opened at 54.5 points, which is par for the course when it comes to the Saints this season. New Orleans has gone 5-1 over/under, regularly topping numbers in the 50's.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View