Capping the calendar: October's best/worst NFL bets

Oct 3, 2013 |
Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the pointspread wars.

With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the good and bad pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.

HOME TEAMS

• Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.

Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, it still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. The Chiefs will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.

AWAY TEAMS

• Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a great bet at home team for a number of years now, but actually the Falcons are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves in Arizona the last Sunday of the month.

• Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.

New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.

• Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, the Cardinals are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to San Francisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Cards.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.

Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year. 

FAVORITES

• Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for the Rams to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.

• Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed.  They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough, as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how the Bucs play in the role of favorites with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.

UNDERDOGS

• Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.

• Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, the Panthers might not have many opportunities, with trips to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities. 

• Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could be in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.

DIVISION

• Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.

The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.

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