Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Nov 20, 2013 |
Week 12 of the NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining slates on the schedule. It may also be one of the tough weeks for football bettors to handicap, with six games sitting with 1-point spreads.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the biggest midweek adjustments to the NFL Week 12 odds as Sunday draws closer:

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -3, Move: -4.5

Early injury news on Vikings RB Adrian Peterson had books keeping a close eye on this NFC North matchup. Even with Peterson upgraded to probable and the Packers rolling with backup QB Scott Tolzien under center, the sharp money pushed this spread past the key number and as high as Green Bay -4.5

“Bottom line, we opened this game way too short in my opinion, as both the public and sharps hammered us at the lower number of three,” Stewart tells Covers. “But since going to Packers -4.5 we've seen steady two-way action. With the news that Peterson has been upgraded to probable, we'll see some support on the Vikings at some point on this game.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions – Open: -9.5, Move -8.5

Tampa Bay is winning over bettors with back-to-back wins, including a blowout over Atlanta last weekend. That’s dropped this spread a full point as of Wednesday with both sharp and public money buying the Bucs against an inconsistent Detroit side.

“We saw more action supporting the Bucs in this game, which came as a surprise to us as for most of the season this has been a bet against team for our bettors and more times than not (the Lions have) been getting the money,” says Stewart. “So with sharp action on the dog and the public also supporting the dog, we're down to Lions -8.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number drop even further.”

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins – Open: +4.5, Move +6

This spread has moved with the early money all siding with the road favorite Monday night. According to Stewart, moves past -5 and -5.5 “couldn’t stop the bleeding” and, as of Wednesday, 85 percent of the action is on San Francisco. With the assumption that the public would continue to back the chalk for the primetime game, the books bumped the spread to Niners -6.

“We're already very exposed on this game and its only Wednesday,” he says. “Come Monday, if our liability is extreme then -6.5 isn't out of the question. I just think that's a ridiculous amount of points considering the situation for the 49ers - off two very physical games and now playing back-to-back road games and having to travel all the way back East. No question it's a tough spot for the 49ers.”

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