Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Sep 11, 2013 |
NFL Week 2 odds have been up since late Sunday night, leaving plenty of time for sharp and public money to move those numbers. We talk to sportsbooks about their recent adjustments in our NFL mid-week line report:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12.5, Move: -13, Move: -11

Books kept this AFC North rivalry under two touchdowns, with the Jets winning in Week 1 and the Patriots barely getting by the Bills. Early action jumped on New England at the lower spread but as injury news crept out of Foxborough – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola – bettors began to side with New York, forcing the current spread of Pats -12. Some books are even dealing New England -11 Thursday morning.

“Obviously the Pats are a public team, but with so much bad PR during the offseason as well as a rash of injuries and a list of receivers that nobody's heard of, the Patriots are not getting the kind of public action we're used to seeing,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers.  “As more and more money is starting to show on the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 11.5 at some point today or first thing tomorrow.”

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
– Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

This spread has been chased all over the board with some books opening low and going high, and others opening high and getting bet down low. Any spots that opened the Eagles -7.5 took early money on the home side and were bet up as many as two points before buy back on the Bolts returned the line to its original post.

According to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com, the most popular bet has been Philadelphia on the moneyline. The Eagles are currently priced at -333 to win straight up in their home opener Sunday.

“Bettors are betting on the Eagles as fast as Chip Kelly’s offense moves down the field,” Candler tells Covers. “That’s all come on the money line because -7.5 doesn’t look too juicy, especially after opening up at a crazy -9.5. Michael Vick still can’t be trusted.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5, Move: -6, Move: -5

This could be the worst game on paper for the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars mustered only two points on a safety in Week 1 while the Raiders nearly knocked off the Colts, sparked by the crazy legs of QB Terrelle Pryor. Bettors have been hot and cold on Oakland as home favorite giving this many points - even if it is to Jacksonville.

“If things go as expected, Oakland won’t be giving this many points for the rest of the year at home, but as it’s Jacksonville, they have to be a fave,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “This line will probably go back towards Oakland, as there are more reasons to like them then there are the Jaguars. Early money is light on this one, but I expect us to be looking for a Jacksonville cover come Sunday.”

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some shops opened this game at Chiefs -1 after Dallas beat New York on Sunday Night Football. That’s been quickly bet up to a field goal. Bettors are impressed with new-look Kansas City, even if its Week 1 victory came courtesy of the lowly Jaguars. However, the oddmakers aren’t overly sold on K.C.

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin we do not believe in Alex Smith,” says Candler. “The Cowboys against ‘Mr Check Down’ with a 2.5-point lead at +105? No contest here.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Most books opened this game at a pick’em, putting some stock into the Cardinals and the new QB-WR combo of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, which combined for two scores in Week 1’s loss to the Rams. But this spread is swinging toward the road side, going as high as Detroit -2, and a lot of bettors are skipping the spread and taking the Lions’ moneyline odds.

“This line could go either way as we near the weekend, but should stay somewhat around a pick’em or slightly favor Detroit,” says Black. “This line has touched -2 during the last couple of days, but for the moneyline move only.”

Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Open: +2.5, Move: +6, Move: +4

After the Sunday night fiasco against the Cowboys, early public money took the 2.5-point spread all the way up as many as three and a half points before sharp New York action trimmed the line to as low as Denver -4 at some markets. The Giants, despite massive turnover troubles and zero rushing attack, still hung around to scare Dallas in Week 1.

“Even though we've seen 65 percent of the total action on the Broncos, we respect the early sharp money on the Giants and if anything, I could see us going to 5 or even 4.5. We won't be going back to-6,” says Stewart.

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