's Super Bowl XLVII Prop Pick of the Day

Jan 22, 2013 |
The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 3.

February 2

Steve Merril - Jacoby Jones (Ravens) Receptions
Over 1.5 (-115)
Under 1.5 (-115)

Over 1.5 -115
San Francisco will emphasize their coverage on Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. The 49ers also have a very good covering linebacker in NaVorro Bowman who will be on Dennis Pitta. That leaves Jacoby Jones as the forgotten receiver. He has been targeted 10 times in Baltimore’s three playoff games - 22 times in the six games since Jim Caldwell started calling plays. Jones will be left open a lot so two easy pitch and catches by him and Flacco make this prop a winner.
Odds courtesy of

February 1

Matt Fargo - Will there be a lead change in the second half?
Yes (+170)
No (-210)

Pick: Yes (+170)
Going along with the team scoring first concept, a close game throughout means lead changes and that means in the second half as well. There were lead changes in the second half in both championship games and, while both defenses pitched a shutout in the second half, we likely will not be seeing that again here. As long as we don't get the fluke early blowout by one team, we could see multiple lead changes.
Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.

January 31

Sean Murphy - Shortest TD Scored

Under 1.5 yards (-120)
Over 1.5 yards (-110)

This is one prop where the 'over' usually draws plenty of action. The fact is one-yard touchdowns are actually quite common in the NFL. In this particular matchup, we're dealing with a pair of extremely physical and aggressive defenses, so the likelihood of a pass interference or other defensive penalty in the end zone is high. Both teams boast physical ground games more than capable of punching it in from a yard out.

Pick: under 1.5 yards (-120)

Odds courtesy of

January 30

Steve Merril - Anthony Dixon's first rushing attempt

Over 1.5 yards (-130)
Under 1.5 yards (+110)
*No attempts counts as under
Anthony Dixon is San Francisco’s specialty back. Dixon had just 12 total carries over the first three months of the season. But over the last seven games, Dixon has nine carries for 30 yards on 3.3 yards per rush. He gets the ball in short yardage situations when the 49ers go to their Jumbo package - the offensive line weighs 2,250 pounds. Dixon is impossible to stop on this play and, as long as he gets a carry, this prop will cash a ticket.
Pick: Over 1.5 yards (-130)
Odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook.

January 29

Matt Fargo - Total Rushing Yards by Bernard Pierce

Over 33.5 (-115)
Under 33.5 (-115)
Pick: Over 33.5 (-115)
Ray Rice is the lead back for the Ravens but Peirce is a quality backup that has done exceptionally well in the latter part of the season. After gaining more than 34 yards only once in his first 12 games, he has surpassed 34 yards in five of his last seven games while averaging 64.9 ypg over that stretch. His 6.0 ypc average is what is most appealing for this prop as he gets big chunks at a time.

Odds courtesy of

January 28

Sean Murphy - Longest Touchdown Scored

Over 46.5 yards (-110)

Under 46.5 yards (-129)

Over 46.5 yards (-110)

Both the Ravens and 49ers have big play potential, not only on offense, but on defense and special teams as well. I like the matchup of Baltimore's down field passing attack against an aggressive 49ers secondary in particular. Joe Flacco won't hesitate to take his shots with Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. On the other side, we've already seen Colin Kaepernick run for a 56-yard touchdown in these playoffs. Both teams feature home-run hitters out of the backfield as well, and I'm not talking about Ray Rice and Frank Gore. Don't be surprised if we see a long touchdown run from either Bernard Pierce or LaMichael James in this game.

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

January 26

Steve Merril - Total Pass Completions

Over 38.5 (-125)
Under 38.5 (-105)

Pick: Under 38.5 (-105)

Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick completed a total of 84 passes in five playoff games. For the season, Flacco (19.4) and Kaepernick (16.4) completed an average of 35.8 passes per game. Their combined pass attempts prop equals 61 which means they need to complete 64 percent of their passes for this prop to cash. With two strong secondaries, we don’t expect that to happen.

Odds courtesy of

January 25

Matt Fargo - Team to make longest field goal
Baltimore (-125)
San Francisco (-105)

Pick: Baltimore (-125)
Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. Not only does Baltimore have the better chance of making a long one, but the 49ers won't even be taking a chance on attempting anything long.
Odds courtesy of

January 24

Sean Murphy - Team that scores first wins game

Yes (-175)
No (+135)

Pick: No (+135)

Both the Ravens and 49ers are comfortable playing from behind. In fact, that's when they've played some of their best football in these playoffs. The Ravens rallied back from four deficits in Denver. They gave up the game's opening score and trailed by six points at halftime in New England. San Francisco fell behind 7-0 against Green Bay and needed to fight back from a 17-0 hole in Atlanta. No surprise if an early score serves to galvanize the opposition in New Orleans.

Odds courtesy of

January 23

Steve Merril - Highest scoring half

First half (-115)
Second half (-105)

Pick: Second half (-105)

Over the past decade, the first quarter of the Super Bowl has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring, which gives this prop value. The Ravens rank seventh with an average of 13.1 points scored in the second half while the 49ers rank fourth with an average of 14.7 points scored in the second half. In the Playoffs, Baltimore averaged 16.3 points in the second half while the 49ers averaged 17.5 in the final two quarters.

Odds courtesy of

January 22

Matt Fargo – First score of the game will be…

Touchdown (-150)
Field goal/safety (+120)

Pick: Field goal/safety (+120)

Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have seen a field goal or a safety lead off the scoring and at favorable odds here, I like that to continue. These are two strong offensive teams but the Super Bowl will tighten up even the best of them. Over these last 14 Super Bowls, there have been an average of only 5.6 ppg scored in the first quarter, so touchdowns have been rare.

Odds courtesy of

Check back tomorrow for the latest Super Bowl prop pick of the day.

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