English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Nov 9, 2013 |
A little bit more of an appetizing fixture list in the Barclay's Premier League Sunday. Newcastle heads to White Hart Lane hot after beating Chelsea 2-0 at home. But the biggest match of the weekend is Manchester United hosting Arsenal.

We talked to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's fixtures.

Tottenham v Newcastle (-175, +333, +550)

Why bet Tottenham: Spurs own one of the best defenses in the league as the side has allowed just five goals on the season. They are coming off a lifeless 0-0 draw against Everton in their last effort and will look for a full three points this weekend to keep up with other clubs at the top of the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Nacer Chadli, Danny Rose, Emmanuel Adebayor

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies bounced back from a gut-wrenching defeat in the Tyne-Wear Derby with an impressive 2-0 win over Chelsea last week. The victory vaulted them into the top 10 and it looks like they belong. Purchases they've made over the past few windows are starting to mesh well, including Yoan Gouffran, Moussa Sissoko and Mathieu Debuchy. This can be a very dangerous side.

Key players out/doubtful: Fabricio Coloccini, Massadio Haidara, Steven Taylor

2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 2, Newcastle 1

Key betting note: Nine of Tottenham's 10 matches in the League this season have resulted in a scoreline under the 2.5 goal total.

Where the action is: "Bulk of the action in the FT market is on Spurs, but the Magpies do have some supporters willing to back them. This is a game that Spurs really should win to keep pace with the other Top 4 contenders, and given their fierce rivals have a tough match against Man United, it’s a good opportunity to possibly get one over on the Arsenal."

Sunderland v Manchester City (+800, +400, -250)

Why bet Sunderland: A victory over hated-rival Newcastle was supposed to turn the Black Cats season around. That didn't happen as the club lost 1-0 to Hull City last weekend. The team has played much better under new manager Gus Poyet and if not for Carlos Cuéllar's own goal early on against Hull, could have seen a much more positive result.

Key players out/doubtful: Andrea Dossena, Lee Cattermole

Why bet Manchester City:
The Citizens put up a touchdown in a 7-0 thrashing of a poor Norwich side last weekend. The team has shown incredible highs and some mind-boggling lows in the early part of season. Still, when healthy, City features one of the most dangerous XI's in the league and a repeat of what they did to the Canaries is certainly in the realm of possibility.

Key players out/doubtful: Vincent Kompany, Stevan Jovetic, David Silva

2012-13 fixture result: Sunderland 1, Manchester City 0

Key betting note: The Black Cats have beaten City in three straight league games by a score of 1-0 at the Stadium of Light.

Manchester United v Arsenal (+130, +250, +230)

Why bet Manchester United: United has picked up the pieces from a very un-United start to the season and has won three of four with a draw mixed in. The Red Devils are currently eighth in the table and will look to climb higher with a victory over the Gunners. A 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad in Champions League midweek isn't the best result, but it does bode well for a defense that has finally kept an opponent off the scoresheet - something they have only done twice domestically.

Key players out/doubtful:
Rafael, Darren Fletcher, Jonny Evans

Why bet Arsenal: This truly is a magical season for the North London club and harkens back to the Invincilbes side of 2003-04. They are top of the table and are coming off an impressive 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund in Champions League. MF Aaron Ramsey has been a revelation this season with six goals and four assists in the league.

Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester United 2, Arsenal 1

Key betting note: United has six wins, two draws and one loss in its last nine matches versus Arsenal.

Where the action is: "Man United stirker Wayne Rooney has done his best to stoke the flames for this fixture by wondering whether Arsenal can hack the long season for a title tilt, and saying that we should ‘ ..wait to see where they are in March…’ as if the fixture needed anymore stoking. Action on the FT result is pretty split, but for a +230 dog, Arsenal see a fair amount of action, and rightfully so, they are possibly underpriced and I wouldn’t be surprised if the price on them shortens. Rooney is +650 to Score First and +200 Anytime, and for Arsenal, high scoring midfielder Aaron Ramsey, who has been in great form all season is +1000 First and +300 Anytime."

Swansea v Stoke (+100, +240, +333)

Why bet Swansea: The Swans were on the wrong end of a 1-0 scoreline in the Premier League's first ever Welsh Derby last week. The club has been the poster child for inconsistency this season but they will have get back into the winning column without star-playmaker Michu who is out with an injury.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Pablo Hernández, Michel Vorm

Why bet Stoke: On the plus side, the Potters got a point from a matchup with a tough Southampton side last week and will head to Wales fairly confident. On the other hand, their season has been incredibly underwhelming and it took a goal from their keeper to draw with the Saints last week. They all count though and the Potters need goals from anybody on the pitch.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Wilkinson

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 3, Stoke 1

Key betting note:
The Potters have lost 10 of their previous 14 matches away from home.

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