Upsets continue to be the big story of the 2012 NFL season, especially after a week in which teams getting the points finished 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS.
None of those underdogs barked louder and with more blowback than the Seattle Seahawks, who stunned the Green Bay Packers 14-12 as 3-point home dogs, thanks to a questionable call from the replacement officials on the final play of the game.
According to reports out of Las Vegas and online books
, as much as $250 million may have swung on that Hail Mary play, giving NFL bettors backing the Seahawks reason to celebrate.
Seattle’s controversial win improves it to 2-1 SU and ATS heading into Week 4's road date with the St. Louis Rams. The Sports Club, a Nevada-based odds service, sent out a suggested spread of Seahawks -2.5 and early lines popping up at online books tabbed Seattle as 1.5-point road chalk for Sunday’s game in St. Louis.
“I still think (the Seahawks) are going to go through some growing pains,” Peter Korner, founder of The Sports Club, told Covers
. “They didn’t have a good second half, offensively (Monday), and basically got a gift on that last play.”
“It’s tough to take from these games, week to week, because we still don’t really know the nature of these teams – which is great for booking these games,” he says. “It’s messing with people’s minds. But we just go on setting the odds as normal.”
Korner says games like Monday’s, which have featured blunders by the replacement refs, have skewed the way bettors look at the games. The lack of consistency has been a boon to sportsbooks, who have cashed in big with underdogs going 29-18-1 ATS heading into Week 4
“As far as bookmaking goes, all this stuff is fabulous,” adds Korner.
Here are the opening lines and early moves for some of Week 4’s biggest NFL games:New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 54.5)
Who would have thought there would be only one win between these two teams when they met in Week 4? Green Bay is 1-2 SU after the controversy in Seattle Monday, but it’s still the more stable team in this matchup. The Saints are 0-3 SU and need a big win to stop them from circling the drain.
“Neither team is playing up to their standards which will help booking this a lot,” says Korner, who originally sent out Green Bay -7. “We're not sure who will attract the big cash in this one on game day but we're thinking the Packers.”
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4.5, 39.5)
The Niners make the cross-county hike to New Jersey, trying to put last weekend’s brain fart against Minnesota in the rearview. The Sports Club suggested San Francisco -3, which is where most shops opened.
However, early action has pushed this spread off the key number and as high as 49ers -4.5 as of Tuesday morning. Road chalk has gone just 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS so far this season.
“We were low to start and with the injury news of New York CB Darrelle Revis being out, the early action is strictly on the road favorites,” says Korner.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 42)
The spread for the Monday nighter opened at Dallas -3 and jumped to -4 with early money on the home side. The Cowboys improved to 2-1 SU with an ugly win over Tampa Bay and, while the defense has looked solid, the offense is struggling to move the chains. That’s reflected in the move for the total, which has dropped from as high as 45 to 42 points.
“Good game which should help divide the action,” says Korner. “Both teams will be good to root for. This is a toss-up.”Check out all of NFL Week 4’s opening lines.