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Posted by donovan_shane 10 months ago
Posted by ConManLoose 10 months ago
The Pirates wound up being a pretty easy winner for me Thursday afternoon, but that was at home and against the Cubs. The win completed an 8-2 homestand for Pittsburgh, but now its back out on the road where they're not nearly as effective. First stop is Milwaukee where they'll find the division rival Brewers seeking revenge.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Homefield Advantage - This makes a big difference for both clubs, neither of which has been very good away from home for the past several seasons. The Pirates have started to turn things around somewhat this year, but are only 11-9 overall. Tonight's starter AJ Burnett has never been good on the road throughout his career with a 77-109 TSR (-33.9 units). Milwaukee is 93-47 at home vs. righties the last three seasons.
2. Payback - Pittsburgh took two of three from Milwaukee at PNC Park to start their homestand. But the one pitcher the Brewers beat was Burnett. Here at Miller Park, the Brewers are 16-5 vs. the Pirates the last three years, including 2-1 this season, which builds off what I was talking about above.
3. X-Factor - Marco Estrada starts tonight for Milwaukee. While he hasn't had the best season so far, he did beat Pittsburgh & Burnett on May 13th, throwing seven innings of three-hit ball. He's 4-0 in seven career starts (6-1 TSR, 0.824 WHIP) vs. the Pirates.
Selection: The play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1*).