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Sarah J. Phillips: Ravens-Jaguars - Anatomy of a wager

My mom doesn’t even bet, and even she probably had Baltimore (-10.5) last night.

Las Vegas oddsmakers openly told Covers.com that they were being hammered with Ravens tickets. Obviously, betting on Jacksonville (+10.5) seems ingenious now. But, as a Jaguars backer, what was I thinking, feeling, and doing last night?

Let’s jump in the time machine and find out.

8:30 p.m. ET - I’ve been staring at Jacksonville +10.5 (-108) for the majority of the day and the introduction video for Monday Night Football featuring the Baltimore Ravens defense isn’t easing any of my anxieties. Blaine Gabbert looks like a kid, and Ray Lewis looks like he eats kids for breakfast.

8:31 p.m. ET - Submit. Oh, brother.
MJD has three fumbles against the Ravens Monday night.
8:37 p.m. ET - The line has fallen to Jacksonville Jaguars +10 (-103) as kickoff nears. I knew I was influential, but I didn’t know I was as influential as Colin Cowherd.

8:40 p.m. ET -
And, we’re off! One of my friends turns to me and asks, “Why aren’t we watching the World Series?” Duh, because I don’t have action on Game 5. Go stuff your face with another hot dog and shut the hell up.

8:43 p.m. ET - Three and out, Baltimore.

8:46 p.m. ET - Three and out, Jacksonville.

8:51 p.m. ET -
Three and out, Baltimore.

8:58 p.m. ET - Three and out, Jacksonville.

8:59 p.m. ET -
FUMBLE! Baltimore’s Ray Rice puts it on the ground on Baltimore’s third possession. My heart skips a beat after almost being put to sleep with the first couple possessions. I feel like I’ve never seen Ray Rice fumble the football. ESPN confirms: Ray Rice hasn’t fumbled during his last 522 touches. I’m starting to believe that this must be my night ...

9:07 p.m. ET - ... until Maurice Jones-Drew fumbles at the goal line. I’m pretty sure I haven’t yelled the F-word that loud since BetJamaica was shut down. ESPN shows the replay, and Jones-Drew clearly fumbles. But, as is the case with all instant replays, it will take the replay assistant five minutes to confirm.

9:13 p.m. ET - Baltimore goes three and out again. I read a tweet from one of my followers, “Baltimore must be on the take!!!” This isn’t soccer, buddy.

9:24 p.m. ET - A 54-yard field goal by Jacksonville is good, 3-0 Jaguars. With a 3-point lead and adding in the original 10.5-point spread, I’m now sitting at a 13.5-point adjusted game line. Still, two touchdowns by the Ravens will burn my ticket. As you can see, I’m extremely pessimistic when I bet on crappy teams.

9:31 p.m. ET - The first quarter ends and it’s been a pretty boring game for someone without action on it. The, “Why aren’t we watching the World Series?” crowd is growing in size. When something like this happens, I hide the remote in the couch and change the subject to something girly, like the Kardashians, in order to divert the boys attention through boredom. This will usually make them forget about their request.

9:48 p.m. ET -
Michael Oher gets flagged for two holding penalties within a few plays of each other. He’s The Blindside guy, though. You can’t get mad at The Blindside guy. Well, unless you’re sitting with a Baltimore ticket.

9:56 p.m. ET - ESPN analyst Mike Tirico says, “This game has been as bad as the Dolphins-Broncos.” No Mike, this game is much worse. It doesn’t have the man, the myth, the legend: Tim Tebow.

9:57 p.m. ET - Another 54-yard field goal by Jacksonville is good, 6-0 Jaguars and now a 16.5-point adjusted game line. Baltimore needs three scores to cover and they don’t even have a first down yet.

10:04 p.m. ET - Forget Dolphins-Broncos, this game is rivaling the Browns-Seahawks debacle. The only thing keeping me glued to the TV is my Jacksonville ticket. Betting will increase your attention span tenfold during these types of games.
Drew Coleman's INT sealed the double payday for SJP.
10:22 p.m. ET -
Jones-Drew has put the ball on the ground three times so far. Luckily, he’s only lost one and the Jaguars are still up 6-0, or else I’d have broken something by now. Not really, but you know what I mean.

10:25 p.m. ET - Baltimore is a 7-point favorite for the second-half line. This screams sucker bet, in my opinion. I’m taking Jacksonville +7 for half the amount of my original bet. At this point, I feel like the Jacksonville +10.5 full-game wager is a winner. If Jacksonville wins outright, I win both bets. Let’s go for the kill.

10:26 p.m. ET - It’s halftime and lately, listening to analysts talk about Tebow has had the same effect as tryptophan on me. I’m falling asleep.

10:27 p.m. ET - Zzzzzz.

11:13 p.m. ET -
I wake up to an eruption of cheers, “Yeah!” Mike Napoli has just put the Texas Rangers up 4-2 in Game 5 of the World Series. I’m still in a daze. Where am I? Do I have this game? Do I care about the outcome?

11:13 p.m. ET -
  No, I don’t.

11:14 p.m. ET - I jump on my computer to check on the Jaguars score. However, through the reflection of my screen, I notice that a mustache was drawn on my face while I was asleep. My friends giggle like schoolgirls as they watch me discover the prank. Real mature, A-holes. Jacksonville is up 9-0, so the mustache is cool with me.

11:51 p.m. ET -
The Ravens cut the lead to 9-7 with two minutes remaining. My game wager is well in hand, but Jacksonville still needs to close out the win for my second-half bet. I normally would not be concerned, but Tebow’s comeback performance in Miami is still on my mind. Jacksonville is very similar to Miami, in the fact that they both suck.

11:58 p.m. ET - Thankfully, an interception seals the deal. 12-7 Final.

Sarah cleans up.

Vegas cleans up. 
 

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Posted by smoothd20
1 year ago

Great Article Sarah! Do you ever go to sports bars in Portland? We should throw a Covers party in Portland! What do you think?
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Posted by smoothd20
1 year ago

Great article Sarah! Do you go to sports bars in Portland? We should throw a Covers party in Portland! What do you think?
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Posted by smoothd20
1 year ago

What's up Sarah! Great Article. Do you ever go to sports bars in Portland? We should throw a Covers Party in Portland! What do you think?
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Posted by Vectorfsm
1 year ago

Well done Sarah, I blindly picked the RAVENS, just like I picked the PACKERS as well as WISCONSIN. How do you think my weekend went? Yup.
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Posted by beantownforlife
1 year ago

its known among real sports betters that you don't talk about games you won when you don't tell anyone before the game starts, now if you want to tell us a bad beat story after a game started we all like to hear those, like say you had Miami and lost to Denver, you can write about that after the game is over, this is prob all hogwash, good luck with posting winners after the games over..
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Posted by BillyO
1 year ago

check her twitter account beantown
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Posted by scratbandit
1 year ago

Good article sarah and enjoy it immensely. I am huge jags fan and even the season may be long I trully wonder what we would have done if gerrard did not need back surgery this year. I love our new defense as that is definitely a bright spot this year. Keep up the good work and fuck all the haters.
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Posted by Kushdoubt
1 year ago

Here are my Leans for this week so far.... MIN/CAR - OVER 47 (-110) NYG -9.5 (-110) NWO -12.5 (-110) BUF -5.5 (-110) DAL +3.5 (-110) SD -3.5 (-110) ttyl buuuuddddyyyy
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Posted by Kushdoubt
1 year ago

btw nice column Sarah, so happy i didnt even touch either side on this game, i had $200 on Under 38!
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Posted by Kushdoubt
1 year ago

Remember when the Jags beat the Colts?
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Posted by The_Unknown
1 year ago

@yankees1918 - Good for you brah. You got lucky with a ton of penalties in second half. Good for u that u won. My point is that it was luck not brilliant capping. But take that one and enjoy, tough guy.
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Posted by SharpCheddar
1 year ago

I found the Lions trend on Sportsdatabase. They beat the Bucs in 1996, orange and white unis! http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=season+%3E+1995+and+AF+and+team%3DLions&submit=query
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@SharpCheddar: But, if I use this statistic, I would be taking Denver. Really, Tebow?
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Posted by houseman
1 year ago

I think there was too much money on Green Bay and Baltimore.......both looked like a sure thing........
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@houseman: The Saints looked like more of a sure thing. And, well, they were.
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Posted by yankees1913
1 year ago

@The_Unknown - ROFL, I made a killing on the Jags +7 2nd half. She was not the only one. Stop being a douche.
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@yankees1913: No fighting!
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Posted by SharpCheddar
1 year ago

Lions haven't covered as a road fav since 1996. Tebow +3.5. Put that in your espn column! don't waste it here.
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@SharpCheddar: LOL! Where did you pull this from?
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Posted by YukonTrav
1 year ago

Hey Sarah, nice article. The only thing I winced at was your needing a wager in order to watch a game. True sports fans will watch regardless of gambling, no? Case in point, I never watched a rugby game before, but I stayed up late for 3 weeks watching every World Cup Rugby match on TV (it was in New Zealand). It rocked, I enjoyed it, and no wagering (let alone fully understanding the rules of the game). I dont care much for MLB (too many games in a season, seems pointless), but i watch the playoffs with or without wagering. To do otherwise is kinda sad. Just my two cents, i enjoy your articles regardless ... best of luck,
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@YukonTrav: I watch the games I wager on first, and everything else second.
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Posted by YukonTrav
1 year ago

Yes, I got that from your post. Sounds like you are more in it for the gambling fix than the actual enjoyment of sports. But hey, to each his - or her - own.
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Posted by Vividjohn
1 year ago

hello sarah. j. did you pick the jags in post? i was looking for u this past weekend and saw nothing on covers.com page. maybe on espn? if u did pick them stay brave. it paid off for you this time.
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Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

@VividJohn: I post my picks on Twitter during the weekends.
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Posted by Raisethis2
1 year ago

I actually kinda smelled a rat here on this one so I thought a 6 point teaser of Balt/Under was the way to go. As is often the case, things worked out badly. Since I was most confident in the under I'm kicking myself now however, Balt, Jax, Denver, Miami and Az have convinced me that an over play (on any of them) the balance of the year is unwarranted.
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Top Response

Posted by SarahJPhilli
1 year ago

"@wackycracker: Baltimore is strange. They look like a Super Bowl contender one week, and a .500 team the next. "