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Wiz of Odds: Why the SEC isn't as good as you think

Jay Christensen covered college football, among other sports, for the Los Angeles Times and produces the popular college football blog TheWizofOdds.com.

If you still think Richard Petty is king, have all of Lynyrd Skynyrd’s albums on vinyl and believe grits are great with any meal, I have news that might shake your world.

The Southeastern Conference is only half as good as it used to be.

That’s right, the almighty, all-powerful SEC, king of college football. The conference that has produced the winners of the last five Bowl Championship Series title games and seven of the 13 that have been played.

I realize Louisiana State and Alabama are 1-2 in the first BCS standings and the winner of the Nov. 5 game between the teams in Tuscaloosa is the de facto title game. That’s not the problem.

Take a look to the East and you’ll see where the SEC is eroding.

After Florida won the second of its two BCS titles on Jan. 8, 2008, the SEC’s East Division started its decline. Today, it is something resembling — God forgive — the Big Ten.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are a combined 23-16. Nothing special when you consider that SEC teams regularly pack their nonconference schedules with opponents from the Sun Belt, service academies and Division I-AA.

Against the spread it’s even worse. The six East members are a pedestrian 18-18-3.

Meanwhile, the SEC West — LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Mississippi — has become the tower of power in college football. 

Combined the six teams are 29-11 — 23-16 against the spread.

In the 12 games played between teams from the East and West, the West holds a 7-5 advantage. Against the spread it’s 8-4. While those numbers aren’t overpowering, there’s a good chance they will be by season’s end.

South Carolina, the defending champion of the East and team to beat again this year, booted quarterback Stephen Garcia off the team last week. Then the real crusher came Saturday when running back Marcus Lattimore was lost for the season because of a left knee injury suffered against Mississippi State.

There are only seven regular-season games left between teams from the East and West, but bettors should give serious consideration to each one. Arkansas will benefit the most because it has three games remaining against East opponents. Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Mississippi all have one.

Yes, the situation is dire for the East, just like it was last year when its six members were a combined 36-36 in the regular season. Meanwhile, the West had racked up a 53-19 record.

Then came the league’s title game, a rematch between South Carolina and Auburn. The Tigers, playing at home, won the first meeting, 35-27, and the so-called experts said it would be different this time because the Gamecocks, playing on a neutral field, knew what to expect.

The sharps loaded up on Auburn and it paid off. The Tigers crushed the Gamecocks, 56-17.

Expect a similar result when East meets West in this year’s title game. MGM Mirage oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback told Covers.com LSU and Alabama would both be a double-digit favorite against any team from the SEC East in the conference title game.

Week 7 impressions:
Following up last week’s column detailing the success of teams in the Associated Press top 10 covering the spread. The trend continued last Saturday, with elite teams going 7-1-1 (Arkansas was idle). That puts the season mark at 48-13-2, or 78.7 percent.

They might as well call off voting for coach of the year. Is there any choice other than Kansas State’s Bill Snyder? No other high-priced hotshot could come close to pulling off what Snyder has in Manhattan.

Indiana and Wisconsin ran the same number of offensive plays (65) last week in their game at Madison. Apparently, the Badgers ran theirs better.

News that Boise State and Air Force may join the Big East for football has prompted a serious question throughout the country. Namely, the Big East has football?

There are rumblings that Utah, Arizona and Colorado are all tanking games so they can take Andrew Luck with the first pick next year.

How much football did I watch last Saturday? Late in the evening, when I got up and walked to the kitchen, I saw a computer-generated first-down line near the fridge.
 
Hunch of the week: Snyder always has made it a priority to bury Kansas when he has the team to do it. This is one of those teams. Lay the points and take Kansas State.
 
You can follow The Wiz of Odds on Twitter @JayChristensen

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Posted by Pateman007
1 year ago

Well Jay if you still think the SEC is not as good as everyone thought they were then you will never be convinced. 1-2-5-9 in the polls to end the season and there is no possible way anyone could say the SEC did not dominate in the bowl season; they could be they would sound like a fool. Nothing like posting on an article that is 3 months old, pretty pathetic.
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Posted by parrish01
1 year ago

Then why does everyone want in??
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Posted by TomE
1 year ago

"There are rumblings that Utah, Arizona and Colorado are all tanking games so they can take Andrew Luck with the first pick next year." WHAT????? Trying out for a new career as a comedian? FAIL
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Posted by eyedog
1 year ago

Let me guess Jay, you are one of those guys who thinks Boise should be playing in the NC game ? How's that conference switch going for Utah ? You can count on three fingers the teams outside of the SEC that would even win nine games in that league. Maybe.
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Posted by Pateman007
1 year ago

How good do you think everyone thinks the SEC is Jay? I think they are hands down the best conference period. Bring in the top three teams from any other conference to the SEC and they will become middle of the road teams in the SEC. Not to say Wisc, Okla and Stanford could not compete in a single game with best in the SEC but the week in and week out pounding would wear those teams down much more than their current conference foes. The war of attrition is a hell of a thing. Outside of The Big XII I would bet South Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas would be in the running for the title of any major conference. Not to say the PAC 12 and Little Ten would be push overs for them but they would definitely be in the mix. On the other hand I would not give a snowballs chance in hell any of the middle of the conference teams could come in and beat LSU or Alabama and make a run at the conference championship. Not sure they would win the SEC east and make it to Atlanta for a shot at the title. The SEC may just be better than you think Jay.
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Posted by unclemoneybag
1 year ago

Which conference is better? Big 10, Penn St is the third best team in the conference. I dont think Penn State could beat kentucky. The SEC is still the deepest conference. I dont see anyone leaving the SEC to goto another conference. The paraody ceases to exist in the conference as Alabama and LSU seem to be the favorites the last three years. Bowl season will ultimately determine how much the SEC has dropped off. If the PAC 12 wins their bowl games decisively then the PAC 12 propels to the head of the class. Right now SEC is still top dog. Alabama destroying Penn St, Arkansas beating Tex AM, and LSU rolling Oregon is enough to say the SEC is still the best conference. Wis is the only team in the nation that could stand up and pound Bama or LSU.
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Posted by GetMoneyNS
1 year ago

wow MrBogey.... yes it was a joke haaaa
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Posted by MrBogey
1 year ago

There are rumblings that Utah, Arizona and Colorado are all tanking games so they can take Andrew Luck with the first pick next year. Was this a joke? I don't get the reference here?
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Posted by DavidGurney
1 year ago

The SEC will look much worse once the NFL begins to draft high school players:Not many of their players attend for the education presently.
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Top Response

Posted by Pateman007
1 year ago

"How good do you think everyone thinks the SEC is Jay? I think they are hands down the best conference period. Bring in the top three teams from any other conference to the SEC and they will become middle of the road teams in the SEC. Not to say Wisc..."