The Summit League has been a gold mine for betting college basketball totals. There’s no reason to think that’s going to change as we head into the final week of the regular season and the conference tournament.
Games involving teams from the Summit League have gone over the total 62.79 percent of the time, by far the highest percentage of overs or unders produced by any conference. That means not only are the teams playing at a fast pace, but the conference’s referees also are calling the games in a manner conducive to producing higher-than-expected scores.
The Metro Atlantic is on the other side of the coin but to a lesser extent. Games involving MAAC teams have stayed under the total 57.02 percent of the time, the highest percentage of unders from any conference. The league’s average pace-of-play and the way refs are officiating the game are producing lower-than-expected scores.
At this point of the season, no coach is going to drastically shift his team’s style of play. And no official will be able to significantly alter his perception of the rules or how he applies them during a game. It will be up to oddsmakers to make the appropriate adjustments, something they’ve failed to do to this point.
There’s money to be made here betting totals down the stretch. We just have to be savvy enough to pinpoint the opportunities. Regardless, you’ll likely be picking from a larger pool of winners by adding a few Summitt League overs and a few WCC unders down the stretch.
Best over/under conferencesOVERSSummit League:
Conference games are averaging 148.4 points.
It helps to have two of the highest scoring teams in the nation in Oakland (84.3) and South Dakota State (82.0). Only 11 teams in Division I average more than 80 points. Oakland is averaging 88.4 points in conference play.
Oakland and South Dakota State have combined to produce 36 overs and 12 unders.
The missing defense at Centenary has contributed as well. The Gentlemen have courteously allowed opponents to score 82.3 points in conference play.
Western Illinois is the only Summit League team to have been involved in more unders (13) than overs (5). The Leathernecks also are the worst ATS percentage team in the nation, having covered only three of 20 games.MAC:
Games involving teams from the MAC have eclipsed the total 56.8 percent (166-126). Conference games are averaging 135.04.
Buffalo, which is fourth in the nation in field-goal percentage and 15th in 3-point percentage, is the best of the bunch with a 16-6 over/under mark.Honorable Mention:
Horizon League -- 56.4 percent (144-111); Colonial League -- 54 percent (155-132).UNDERSMAAC:
The conference features two of the nation’s top 15 scoring defenses in Fairfield and St. Peter’s. The MAAC also possess four teams ranked 300 or below in scoring offense.
Conference games are averaging 134.1 points. Rider and Iona are the only two teams that produced more overs in the conference.
Games involving teams from the West Coast Conference have stayed under the total 55 percent of the time. Conference games are averaging 139.02.
Gonzaga, with the league’s top scoring defense, and San Diego, with the league’s worst offense, are both 7-17 over/unders.
Big East -- 54.8 percent (169-205); CUSA -- 53 percent 116-134.