NFL Underdogs: Divisional pointspread picks

The overnight bags are packed, the car seat is set up (sort of) and my cell phone is fully charged. It’s D Day Plus 1 at the Grewal household. My wife is overdue and could go into labour any moment now.

And while Mrs. Grewal busies her self with triple checking the baby room and to-do lists, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the big show doesn’t interfere with any of the four NFL games this weekend.

I wish things ran like they did in the early ‘60s or at least the way the TV show Mad Men depicts them. The nurse told Don Draper his work was done after he dropped wife Betty off at the maternity ward and sent him off to the waiting room with the other soon-to-be dads.

Yes, I’m sure 50 years ago I could drink brandy and watch the football game while my wife was in labor and no one would judge me.

Some might call this progress but I’m not one of them.

Of course if the games this weekend are anything like the ones from the first round of the playoffs, I won’t feel too bad about missing anything.

Things were so bad even the Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers was having trouble staying awake during his team’s game against Arizona.

I’m convinced the Divisional round is going to deliver the goods. The matchups are better (despite what the pointspreads suggest) and so are the potential storylines.

Another reason I’m feeling so bitter about the wild card results: I went 1-1 with my underdog picks even though three of the four dogs covered.

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at New Orleans Saints

God bless the stat nerds over at FootballOutsiders.com. Their numbers tell me that only Philadelphia blitzed six rushers more often than the Saints – and we all know few quarterbacks have ever handled the blitz better than Kurt Warner.

If New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams sends the extra rusher, Warner will burn his stop unit worse than Jimmy Kimmel did to Jay Leno.

Don’t worry about the Cardinals’ defense. The group is better (much better) than it demonstrated against the Packers and will be anxious to prove it on Saturday.

Pick: Cards

New York Jets (+7) at San Diego Chargers

I misinterpreted last week’s Jets-Bengals line movement as public support for a New York-based team. That was sharp action and the wise guys snatched up the Jets when this line opened at +9.

Even with the line dropping to the key number (7), you’ve got to like the visiting side. Gang Green’s defense is playing better than it did during the 3-0 start and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is doing a fantastic job playing to his team’s strengths.

Speaking of Schottenheimer, don’t forget about what happened with his dad, Marty, in San Diego. Chargers GM A.J. Smith hated Marty so much he forced team president Dean Spanos to fire the coach even though the Bolts were coming off a 14-2 regular season.

Payback’s a bitch.

Pick: Jets

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Posted by PearAdice
3 years ago

RIP gaines adams...sad only 26, just terrible. I hope they don't discover it was football related, concussion or something of the sort
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Posted by PearAdice
3 years ago

Last week the underdogs were the picks, this week it is playing out a little more conventionally. Home team favorites who are well rested are coming out like gang busters and taking care of biznass. The boys/vikes game is a straight toss up, coin flip. That being said call tails and take the points. Chargers roll into Indy. They will be booking their hotel rooms in Indy by the middle of the third quarter TEASE BOYS+ 9.5/BOLTS -.5 $$$$ Feel like gambling a little more PARLAY across sports UCONNcb/BOLTS TITANIUM PIPE LOCK...chance of rain in SD? More like a guaranteed thunderstorm. Bolts will be charged up, healthiest team in the league . Chargers straight out if your book has 7.5 buy the hook make it 7, shouldn't need it, but why not. FINAL: NYJ 13 IF you are looking for a payday, don't miss this chance to $ in! SD 31
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Posted by BradsBargains
3 years ago

Going LARGE on SD - SD wins 38-14
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Posted by WoodroW23
3 years ago

lBig, What do you think about todays games? I had the same mindset as you when it came to the New Orleans game and hit it hard. How about todays, any thoughts?
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Posted by hvacdawg
3 years ago

NFL DIDN'T BRING FAVRE BACK TO LOSE. THOUGH IT WOULD BE NICE .....WITH THE LOW LINE EXPECT SOMETHING STUPID TO HAPPEN IN THE GAME LIKE A SAFETY OR MISSED EXTRA POINT. NEVER FAILS.
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Posted by DIRTYSTEVECTOWN
3 years ago

Jets keep it close early with the running game and solid defense. Field goals will not win this one, Chargers get up 10 by halftime and Sanchez has to throw on obvious throwing downs this one could get ugly. CHARGERS Defense kind of like Saints everyone love that BIG O with Rivers and he boyz and that Defense gets no mention. EVERYONE talking bout JETS defense and with good reason, but CHARGERS DDDDDDD may be tired of hearing it. SD 27 JETS 13
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Posted by Ashton_Grewal
3 years ago

Ibig, You were completely right to call me out yesterday. That game wasn't close and it wasn't going to be even if Kurt Warner didn't get hurt. Home-field was huge and the Saints were better prepared and healthy. I shouldn't have overlooked those things. I'm praying the Jets will save me today so I don't get shut out this week. doliver517 might be right though. Gang Green will have their hands full against the Chargers. Good luck today everyone!
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Posted by lbig
3 years ago

lbig here, who is waiting for my picks these days, covers might want to think about putting me on the pay roll. 8-0 in the NFL WOW!!! Top that Ladies. I want to know who wants some cash-oola. Someone ask for lbig tomorrow morning flattery will get you everwhere. Let's spank the books hard with a couple of winners. Peace!!!
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Posted by doliver517
3 years ago

wow......I called the Saints as soon as the Cards won last week (don't know what u were watching last week) and if you think Dirty Sanchez will go 4 straight games without a turnover??????? I just think ur waaaayyyyyyyy off on this card "Mr . Expert"....all home teams win for once....and yes, that means Favre moves on
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Posted by 01ITR
3 years ago

In all the 6 playoff games up to this point. The favouring consensus is 0-6. In Sundays games they lean on Minnesota and San Diego. I will be damned if it is 0-8 by the end of the weekend because I think San Diego will smoke the Jets by 10+ and Favre should pull out a win over Dallas. Let the games begin
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Posted by mvp12331233
3 years ago

DALLAS
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Posted by homerpicks
3 years ago

Love the article!
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Posted by lbig
3 years ago

Here is a response to the guy who sucked last week and is about to suck again this week. This guy writing this article either knows nothing about pro football or he is being paid by vegas to give you losers. As Donald trump(covers) would/should say " I should fire myself for having you around." Listen up good, I will make you some money. Here is my method, keep it simple. Through stats out the window. Here is the facts, Home field advantgage for NO is huge, Rest even bigger, turnover ratio. End of story "Saints Big." This from lbig who went 6-0 last sunday, unlike this bitter jabroni picking the underdogs again. That was last weeks winners, go favorites in the divisional rounds. Peace out!!
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Posted by No_Contest
3 years ago

Ronnie, is that 4 out of 5 SU or ATS?
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Posted by ronnie101
3 years ago

no one speaks of the card record down in the big easy losing 4 out of 5 NO for me and th over
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Posted by bikinibabesrbes
3 years ago

Speaking of last weeks game....that has to affect AZ's recovery time...that was a marathon ...and now they are playing a well rested team...at home ...in the dome...a fact that may come into paly in the second half..Good Luck to All...!!!
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Posted by Rvrshark
3 years ago

If the Cardinals are smart, they will establish the run early. Beanie could have a good day against a soft Saints run D. Keeping Brees off the field is always a good idea, I don't think ARZ wants to go thru the same game as last week.
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Top Response

Posted by DIRTYSTEVECTOWN
3 years ago

"Jets keep it close early with the running game and solid defense. Field goals will not win this one, Chargers get up 10 by halftime and Sanchez has to throw on obvious throwing downs this one could get ugly. CHARGERS Defense kind of like Saints e..."