Kentucky basketball fans are known for being as subtle as a Britney Spears song.
When Tubby Smith couldn't land top recruits and sunk the Wildcats to the middle of the SEC, Lexington voiced its concerns in so many swear words.
When Billy Gillispie lost his second game as UK coach to Gardner-Webb and then followed that with two opening losses last year, Lexington wanted his head on a pike.
And when John Calipari was named head coach of the Wildcats this summer and brought with him his talented freshman stable, Lexington wanted “University of Kentucky” engraved on the national championship before the season even began.
But things aren't going as planned for UK.
Sure, the team is off to a 6-0 start. But a couple close calls, like the overtime win against Stanford (a team predicted to finish at the bottom of the Pac-10) as well as unimpressive victories over Moorehead State, Miami (Ohio) and Sam Houston State, and the fan boys in Lexington suddenly aren't as optimistic.
Don't worry Wildcats backers. Like Axl Rose once sang, all you need is just a little patience.
With the whitewash to the program, there are bound to be some growing pains – even with a guy like John Wall. But while the word “patience” may calm those in Kentucky, “patience” means something entirely different to sports bettors. It means profits.
The Wildcats have covered in just two of their five lined games and would have fell short of the spread if books had tagged their 102-92 win over the Bearkats with odds last week. Kentucky faces NC-Asheville in what will be a unlined game before taking on another team in a similar situation, North Carolina, next weekend.
Betting against programs dealing with a turnover in talent, on the floor or on the sideline, is a love-hate relationship. You've got to know when to fade and know when to play. Here are a few more programs that are ripe with fade value now, but should be considered a solid play once they work out the kinks come conference competition.
Oklahoma Sooners (2-2, 0-3 ATS)
Everyone expected the Sooners to miss Blake Griffin this year but no one mentioned the loss of his brother, Taylor Griffin. He may have averaged just under 10 points but was Oklahoma's top defender and pulled in almost six rebounds and blocked a shot a game. Heading into Thursday's game against Houston, the Sooners have struggled to stop teams, allowing almost 73 points per game.
They aren't used to not having the Griffin brothers under the basket, bailing out the perimeter guys. The big bodies of freshman Keith Gallon and Ryan Wright take up space but are far from athletic superfreaks like the Griffins. Oklahoma has yet to face elite competition, and has some offensive powers on the schedule with Arkansas (ranked fourth in scoring) and Arizona (which has already played top-tier teams) next week.
UCLA Bruins (2-1, 0-1 ATS)
People couldn't believe that a program like UCLA, which has been a mainstay of the Final Four in recent years, could lose to Cal State Fullerton to open the season. But this year's Bruins squad is a completely different beast than the one that went deep into the tournament two seasons ago and is even a far cry from last year's squad that finished 13-5 in conference play. With the turnover in experience, UCLA must rely on three sophomores in the starting five and turn to three freshman a sophomore and a junior off the bench.
The Bruins get a boost from the reinstatement of senior Nikola Dragovic, their best forward, who is up on felony charges in connection to a fight at a concert. Coach Ben Howland has a lot to work with but won't have this team where he wants it until at least the middle of January. As for the four points UCLA is giving against Portland at the 76 Classic Thursday, I wouldn't touch the Bruins with a 10-foot “Wooden” pole.
North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
Following Syracuse's win over UNC last weekend, many people asked me what was wrong with the Tar Heels. My answer isn't so much what is wrong with North Carolina, but what is right about Cuse. The Orange came into the season knowing their role. Each player is clear on what they should do and who they are. The Heels don't have that – yet. Roy Williams is known for caring less about non-conference scores and more about finding which lineups work and who wants to take the big shots. The defending national champs have as much talent as any other program in the land. But like Kentucky, UNC will take a little while to figure out who it is as a team.
Bettors saw a similar trend the year Williams brought in Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Deon Thompson. That team failed to cover in their first three lined games. This season is a bit different with the bulk of experience coming in sophomore form. The upcoming schedule is insane with a possible Final Four tour featuring Michigan State, Kentucky and Texas over the next month not to mention a tough game against WAC favorite Nevada this weekend.
Pittsburgh Panthers (4-1, 1-4 ATS)
The Panthers should have never gotten fewer than 10 points from oddsmakers when they faced the Texas Longhorns this Tuesday. Pitt is still a solid team in the Big East, but losing your three best players is a big hill to climb at this point in the season. On top of that, star returnee Jermaine Dixon is nursing a busted wheel and top reserve Gilbert Brown is out until the second semester with academic issues.
Sure, the Panthers made the Horns work for it. But right now Rick Barnes isn't thinking about non-conference records. He's tinkering with his loaded roster and trying to figure out who goes where before Big 12 play starts. Panthers coach Jamie Dixon wishes he had that problem. Pitt is still narrowing down who will shoot the basketball. The Panthers offense has sputtered, scoring only 67 points through their first five games. Scrappy could get Pitt through until Big East play starts in January. But scrappy doesn't always cover – especially when books are still treating the Panthers as one of college hoops' elite programs.