Jon Campbell

College four-play: Week 10 college football picks

By JON CAMPBELL - Covers Editor
November 6, 2009   27 comments

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Ohio State-Penn State is back this weekend and that means I’m practically forced to start my intro with the Big Ten because: a. I’m sick of the over-covered SEC and b. Because it looks like it features the most meaningful game outside LSU-Bama this week. 

That’s leaving me feeling a little queasy.

I mean, is anybody outside the Midwest really excited about this conference this year? Other than Iowa, what have they given us?

Not much, other than a bunch of ho-hum wins by OSU and PSU (to go with a couple of ugly losses) and a pile of teams experiencing down years. And still, the winner in Happy Valley Saturday is going to have a solid shot at a BCS bowl berth.

It’s more than a little unsettling to think that we could have a two-loss Big Ten team playing at the Rose Bowl while either an undefeated TCU or Boise State team will likely get shut out of the BCS picture (Or even a two-loss USC team for that matter).

But that’s the kind of mediocrity we’ve grown accustomed to from this conference in recent years, so why expect anything different? 

What really disturbs me though, and I never thought I’d have to say this, is that I am seriously questioning the manhood of the Big Ten right now.

It started this week when I learned of the apparently long-standing policy that this conference does not play night games in November. I don’t know how I didn’t know it, but I overlooked this controversial topic this past spring when it came up. 

Mark Rudner, the guy who looks after the TV side of things for the Big Ten, said this is due in part to the weather, in part to tradition and in part for security reasons. But let’s face it, it’s because of the weather. Why else would they miss out on being the marquee game of the week on national primetime TV this Saturday – and maybe next Saturday when Iowa faces Ohio State?

This is lame. It’s cold in the Midwest in wintertime. Deal with it. This conference only plays like two weeks in November anyway.  

The second item of questionable manhood came when Penn State’s student marketing body pulled its ‘Terrelle Cryer’ t-shirts this week. The shirt features a sympathetic Nittany Lion offering a tissue to a weeping Terrelle Pryor.

Get it? It’s a play on words. Very clever. And I’m disgusted they pulled it simply because it was deemed too insensitive.

Insensitive? Do you see the way that muscle-bound cat has his arm-leg compassionately draped around Pryor’s shoulder and offers him a Kleenex box with the other paw? That’s caring right there. That’s respect.

But if you must insist it is insensitive, isn’t that kind of the point? Honestly, if 109,000 fans can’t gang up on a 20 year old with a 54 percent completion rate, I’m not sure I want to be a part of it anymore.

But I digress. I’m really just trying to waste time to avoid talking about my mediocre 2-2 performance last week. I’m now 19-16-1 this year with only a month of juicing out left to go.

Let’s take Ohio State +5 to start things off, shall we, and hope these boys can get this one in before dark or before the temperature drops below 60 degrees.

UTEP vs. Tulane (+6.5, 57)

Know what I hate? Discrimination, that’s what. And the Dutch, of course.

This week Tulane is offering local school children an opportunity to get into the game free if they bring a paper or a report card with an ‘A’ on it. Their parents also get an endzone seat for five bucks or a sideline seat for 10.

My problem is, what about the dumb kids who try their very best but have never seen the beautiful pastures that lie beyond the C-minus plateau? Are the future sports betting journalists of the world not people too? And what about their parents who were banking on that ‘A’ to get into the game for a Lincoln?

I can see the dinner table conversation now:

"Guess we'll have to watch the game from home tonight, stupid."  

And here I thought the 50s were over.

Pick: UTEP

Kansas vs. Kansas State (+2.5, 57.5)

K-State leads the Big 12 North, is undefeated at home and is facing a Kansas squad that has lost three in a row and failed to cover five in a row.

With every game the J-birds seem to get worse while the Kitties get better. So why is K-State a home dog here?

Makes you want to over-think this one, but don’t. K-State took some time to get going but the Wildcats are playing well and will want to end the three-game losing skid to their state rival.

Pick: Kansas State

Army vs. Air Force (-16.5, 36.5)

Veterans Day/Remembrance Day is this coming Wednesday, so we’ll finish off with a much deserved look at the ones in uniform.

This line is a little strange because 36.5 is a low total for a 16.5-point spread. It’s an indication of Army’s struggles on offense this season and especially lately, when the Knights haven’t been able to top 16 points over their past five.

But they have a defense that ranks in the top 15 in the country and I think that might be enough to stop the Fly Boys from treating them like an ATM. Air Force has covered seven of the last 10 in this rivalry, including the last three.

Pick: +16.5

27 comments
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jimskelly says:
11/06/09 03:36PM

Who will check the validity of an A paper/report. No one. Remeber it's not how you play the game, it is whether you win or lose

JinnRikki says:
11/06/09 05:02PM

Someone that goes a juice paying, kiss your sister 2-2 has no business calling out a conference's manhood sweety.

bigstork311 says:
11/06/09 06:10PM

Thanks 4 nothing

Diamondjake says:
11/06/09 07:33PM

Good article. Even these clones no how bad the big Ten sucks.

Beechernic says:
11/06/09 08:04PM

Watch your mouth Wee-Man. if you are going to Knock the Big Ten for have a few loses in their top 3 (well say 3Ls total), take a peak at the BE (4), or the B12 (5). Should we even discuss watching the B12 or ACC this year? (5 and 7!). P10 (5). Yes, at the top (and it pains me to say this) SEC has the best record. But, as a conference the SEC has the worst record OOC. And actually the BIG10 has the BEST OOC record [note: this stat might be outdated, but that could be par for this article].

I have no problem with you having a job, but maybe some homework would help. 50% of the SEC has a 50/50 record or worse. PAC10-40%. BE-38% Sounds to me like those are the top conferences that like to lose, and lose consistently.

I do appreciate you comment about playing night games in the Mid-West. Its a great shot at that conference, but have you been there at night? what if a bowl or two were held up there? You think a plush conference would fair well at the Horseshoe, if thier umbrella garnished adult beverage was frozen? Do you really think the PAC10 would consistenly be successful if the Rose bowl tropical breeze was exchanged for flurries in HappyValley, or if any of them played west of the Missouri River (kudos to to Bruins for going coast-coast, but reference paragraph 2 and the SEC's bottom 9)

Maybe instead of grabbin ANOTHER drum stick and joining the Media's percussion line, try another angle. Something thats cutting edge, and new, and half way mentally arousing. Maybe come up with something my mom doesnt bring up during our monthly phone calls. Or that I didnt heard in the coffee line while visiting my Gramma at the Old Folks home.

Alas, I'll keep reading. You didnt lose a reader here, but the bar has been lowered, and this isnt the 1st time. Right now, if we used the buddy system, we would be hard pressed to find a double jointed midget short enough to do the limbo on this new one. Macarana, yes!.... Limbo, no...

PS: The real reason there arent night games...Being one of the older conferences, stadiums didnt use to have lights, so when Nov (aka DayLightSavings) came, it rendered those later games useless. So yes its tradition.

SECFootballSux says:
11/06/09 08:25PM

well said Jinn Rikki & Beechernic......

Get a job Dianmond Jake......

Bobup says:
11/06/09 09:09PM

Penn State smokes Ohio St

The game is LSU + 7.5 at bama !! LSU May Win this be onit!!

pipedoctor says:
11/07/09 12:52AM

all over the Nitany Lions at home

SECFootballSux says:
11/07/09 12:58AM

Penn St. gets SCHOOLED......they'll choke & lose by 10.....

then Iowa gets Bi tch slapped next weekend.......

who really gives a Sh_ _ about LSU / BAMA..........

mattc25 says:
11/07/09 01:09AM

....I really like Duke + 10 over North Carolina and the under 45.5. I like Saban with 2 weeks to prepare at home. Line right now is -7.5...I teased 6.5 taking Bama -1,Duke + 16.5........if want to add any to the teaser I like NW to cover + 21.5 over Iowa and Georgia Tech -7 over Wake Forest.

Jon_Campbell says:
11/07/09 08:39AM

I'd say I struck a nerve Beech... Look, it's not so much about wins and losses, it's about the quality of football in the Big Ten this year. A good conference should have a bunch of .500 teams in it.

With the exception of a small handful of games - Michigan-Michigan State and Wisconsin-Minnesota come to mind - it's the worst of the six BCS conferences to try and sit down and watch a game this year. It's sloppy, mistake-ridden football that leaves you channel surfing for a better game, unless you're a Big Ten die hard.

I love the Big Ten, I really do. That's why I demand more from it. It's been a major disappointment from an entertainment standpoint this season. Hopefully today's game will change that, but until then I gotta write what I see and I appreciate the other viewpoint.

But I'm not sure what the bowl games thing has to do with anything. I'm talking about Big Ten football in November. It's supposed to be the toughest in the land.

nascarjack says:
11/07/09 09:44AM

Big Ten doesn't have night games because their mommies want them home before dark.

mvp12331233 says:
11/07/09 09:59AM

OSU +5.5 take it now!!!!!!!!!

mvp12331233 says:
11/07/09 10:03AM

Beechernic

Great comment!!!!

mvp12331233 says:
11/07/09 10:07AM

Campbell,

Take a look at the success these BIG 10 players have in the NFL. More ready for the grind it out NFL game then the SEC, lets throw it 75 times a game and the QB's and WR's are not making the cut in the NFL. Big 10 may be SLOPPY, Mistake ridden football, but if my kid was looking at a full ride football school. I would be looking at a school like Ohio State then the THUG RIDDEN Florida schools.

ScreamingEagle says:
11/07/09 10:07AM

Good One nascarjack, Now go back to your Double-wide, get your double barrell, and squeeze the trigger you Hillbilly. You couldn't make it in BIGTEN Country

Sydney-Carton says:
11/07/09 10:12AM

Well said Beech!

That Michigan St.- Iowa game a couple weeks ago was pretty damn good.

junghm69 says:
11/07/09 10:53AM

Good catches on UTEP as well as K state. I hadn't really looked at those games til reading this article but they look solid.

But Ohio St and Army? C'mon. You might as well flip a coin in either of those games. Penn St and Ohio St could be mirror images of each other this year and home field advantage there is worth just about 5 points. Actually Penn St has done a much better job ATS this year than OSU has. I do agree however that as far as handicapping goes, the Big 10 has been a Big Bust. It seems every week another team in that conference lowers the bar even further.

And your logic about Army seems a bit flawed. If you give up less than 300 yards a game AND you have a winning record, then that's good defense. When you do it with a 3-5 record and 2-6 ATS against a fairly soft schedule, that just means you stink on special teams and penalties so your opponents don't need to gain a lot of yards to kick your butt!

kingpin161 says:
11/07/09 11:49AM

Beechernic - You are so right...great stuff! MANHOOD, PLEASE. The SEC is the conference that lacks it. They never have to worry about windchill factors, ice, or snow. Man up and come play football in November or December at places like Penn St, Ohio St, or Wisconsin and we'll see how fast they are when there blood thickens and their fingers freeze when game time temps are in the teens and the windchill is 20 below. Heck, Auburn played a game in West Virginia in October last year at night and they were dressed like it was 10 below and it wasn't even cold out there. Imagine if that game was in December. The football gets slick and hard and the hits hurt ten times more. Ever wonder why the Florida pro teams struggle when they have to play in November and December in the north. It is a completely different game. Of course warm weather teams won't ever travel to the north unless the B(C)S decides to go to a playoff format where the the top seeds get to play at home. I know it is a dream, but that would level the playing field. I am so tired of hearing cracks at the Big Ten. The fact is that the Big Ten is something like 17-18 (road record) against the SEC in bowl games over the past 6-7 years. Nearly all of those games were all played in SEC country and certainly none even close to a Big Ten town. And then there is the "great" USC that can't even win games in Oregon or Washington. They won't play ND in late November because of the weather...yeah that is the reason they moved it to October. Wonder how they would fare if they had to play at Happy Valley instead of SoCal in January with the turf frozen like a rock? And finally, the overrated Mark Sanchez is finding out that weather makes a difference. He is already struggling with the weather and we just hit November. Can't wait to see him in December in NY when it starts to get really cold and blustery (for you fans in the south...it means really, really cold and windy). If he has to throw to win games, he'll lead the league in INT's. He is almost there now along with another overrated QB from the SEC playing in Chicago. I do agree that the Big Ten should play night games in November, but this is more a lack of common sense from the people in charge than it is a question of manhood.

bgoda88 says:
11/07/09 12:21PM

I was going to post a long winded comment, but Kingpin you did it for me. So Thank You. Secondly, how is this guy an editor and an analyst for college football, he doesnt even know what he is talking about. I am shocked that he has winning percentage in picking games... But let's be honest USC might be the most overated team in the country... Florida is a great ball club, but they shouldn't be undefeated... Top to bottom, there really isnt a conference that is superior to the rest . . . To end this discussion I propose that the NCAA force the BCS divisions to use their nonconference games to do a round robin and play one another, at least that way we would have something to argue... I am tired of seeing DIV -1A teams playing DIV - 1AA teams, besides Michigan losing a fluke game a couple years ago they are worthless...

rynothedyno says:
11/07/09 12:24PM

I would be looking at a school like Ohio State then the THUG RIDDEN Florida schools.

The dude that said that above is right on...Florida schools are a joke...why the hell Miami is even allowed to have a football team is beyond me...f@ckin pottery makers.

jimmygo89 says:
11/07/09 12:56PM

Big 10 football is GARBAGE. It is SLOW and sloppy!! They are not even competetive against southern schools during bowl season...just ask Ohio St. (the best they have to offer). In my opinion, you shouldn't even be eligible to play in a BCS bowl game unless you play a conference championship game...you hear me BIG 10, PAC-10. If you can't even line up against the best in your own conference, how can you expect to line up against the best from other conferences. Come down south to watch some real football!!

jimmygo89 says:
11/07/09 01:00PM

kingpin,

"Of course warm weather teams won't ever travel to the north unless the B(C)S decides to go to a playoff format where the the top seeds get to play at home. I know it is a dream, but that would level the playing field"

There wouldn't be any top seeds from the North!!! You would be packing your bags and coming down south.

doobiebrother says:
11/07/09 01:00PM

CFB 38-39-1 (-5.6). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted.

5* Pitt (-21.5) over Syracuse – Loss of WR Williams was huge for Orange as he was #1 in Big East and #6 in CFB in receptions (49), with next guy on team having just 18. Third down back Bailey (17 receptions) is also out. With Syracuse tough vs. run (88.9 #7) but horrible vs. pass (274 #117), Panthers will go deep early and often. They have the best WRs in the league and QB Stull will match his #6 efficiency (161.2) vs. Syracuse #114 efficiency “D” (158.5). Panthers do have ND on deck but come off bye and have another bye after Irish.

5* Wisconsin (-12.5) over Indiana – Badgers 37-0 trouncing of a good Purdue team was impressive. Their only losses are to undefeated Iowa and at Ohio St. in a game they dominated (yardage 368-184). Hoosiers have played 8 straight weeks including 5 road games, and heartbreaking loss at Iowa last week virtually eliminated them from bowl competition. Badgers had bye before Purdue game and should overpower weary hoosiers at line of scrimmage.

5* Arkansas (-7) over S. Carolina – Tough spot for Gamecocks who have not had a week off this year. They play 10th straight week and 3rd road game in 4 weeks including Bama and Tennessee. They’ve already clinched bowl eligibility and have home game with Florida on deck. They have allowed 24 sacks and now will be without 360 lb. LT King, who protects QB Garcia’s blind side. Arkansas DL coming on like gangbusters and could have a field day. SC DE Mathews (39 T, 8 TFL, 5 sacks) is also out. Razorbacks had only EMU last week and must win 2 of next 3 at home to clinch bowl eligibility heading to LSU for season finale.

3* UConn (+17) over Cincinnati – Huskies have had some adversity but still are 7-1 L8 and 6-1 on road. Cincy has faced only one other team with strong running game and should have lost at home (Fresno 28-20). Bearcats may be looking ahead to WVU on Friday. Cincy often wins via HC Kelley outcoaching foes but nobody outcoaches Edsell.

3* Florida (-35) over Vanderbilt – Commodores likely to end up with 0 here as they are #93 in total offense, without QB Smith, and down to their 3rd teamer at LT. Vandy “D” spunky, but Tebow and Gator offense will be on the field all day and might make 35 look small.

3* SMU (-18) over Rice – Normally this would be a trap game with SMU coming off road games at Houston and Tulsa, and Rice off a bye, but Mustangs have 3 of final 4 at home and need 2 wins to clinch first bowl berth since 1984. Despite recent success, SMU still underrated. Their win a Tulsa was no fluke (yardage 429-322) and they outgained Houston in loss (397-394). June Jones run and shoot could explode vs. # 114 Rice “D” (470). No letdown here as Mustangs can take sole control of 1st place in CUSA West if Houston loses at Tulsa.

3* Kansas St. (+2.5) over Kansas – Jayhawks keeping burning money (0-5) but public not betting against them, and as long as lines maker continues to get equal money on both sides or more on Kansas, he will continue to set bad line. KSU coming on strong under brilliant guru Snyder and their comeback vs. tough Oklahoma “D” last week was impressive. Wildcats have trounced Colorado and A&M by combined 82-20 in L2 home games and should be favored here.

3* Penn St. (-5.5) over Ohio St. – Both teams play great “D” (OSU #5 & #6 scoring PSU #6 & #1), but Lions have big edge on offense (#24 to #63) and at QB (#20 eff. To #60). With OSU K Petrey out, they also have special teams edge. Home field alone worth 6 points here. L5 meetings decided by 7>.

3* Stanford (+7) over Oregon – Letdown spot for Ducks after big USC win and despite a couple of misleading score, have yet to play a really good road game. They lost at Boise, trailed UCLA at the half and gained just 300 yards, and barely outgained Washington (416-395). Cardinal had LW off and are 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS at home. Their OL and power running game will have success and outright upset would not surprise.

3* USC (-10) over Arizona St. – Devils simply not good enough to keep angry and embarrassed Trojans from taking out their frustrations.

StevenGA1011 says:
11/07/09 01:17PM

CFU +35

CFU/TEX UNDER 47.5

UVA +14

WAST +32

ORE/STAN UNDER 58.5

VAN +34.5

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