College Four-play: Week 9 predictions

With November nearly upon us, I was beginning to get very worried. And not just because we are entering upset season, when making bets is a little like rolling dice at a craps table.

I was getting worried because we were two full months into the season and we had yet to have a rant worthy of repeating ad nauseam to everyone we come into contact with like it was somehow a greater speech than “I Have A Dream”.

And then, just when I was beginning to lose hope, Texas Tech gave up 52 points at home to a hapless A&M squad.

On behalf of college football fans everywhere, thank you Texas Tech. You inspired your coach to give us something we can torture those around us with for months to come. Maybe years.  

“As coaches, we failed to make our points more compelling than their fat little girlfriends,” said Mike Leach after the game. “Now their fat little girlfriends have some obvious advantages, but one thing is their fat little girlfriends are telling them what they want to hear, which is how great they are and how easy it’s going to be.

“We had a bunch of people that wanted to win the football game but didn’t want to play the football game.”

Leach added that he would go to some “fairly amazing lengths” this week if he had to in order to get his team’s butt in gear. 

“There will be some people inconvenienced and if that happens to be their fat little girlfriends, too bad,” he said.  

The thing I love about this is that some folks are demanding Leach apologize for his comments. And I’m like, “Apologize? For what?”

If this were any other job in the world, this would be the type of rationale that ends with you landing in one of two places very quickly – the loony bin or the unemployment line.

I somehow can’t imagine gathering my employees when things start to go a little off the tracks and saying: “Listen guys, there have been way too many mistakes in punctuation lately. I don’t know what your fat little girlfriends are telling you about possessive nouns but someone is going to be seriously inconvenienced until this changes and if it’s your fat little girlfriends, then so be it.

“You guys want the stories to be good, but you don’t want to write the stories.”

I’m just not sure it would fly.

Be advised, this quote is not for amateurs. Don’t get caught breaking it out on waiters in restaurants or your buddies who aren’t familiar with college football.

“Dude, wanna come over and crush some brews, play some fooseball.”

“Sorry bro, hanging with the lady tonight.”

“Well, tell your fat little girlfriend she’s going to be seriously inconvenienced this evening and get your ass over here.”

This will result in a minimum of one black eye for somebody. So I’d advise to proceed with caution here. 

In the mean time, as gym memberships and eating disorders soar in Lubbock, I’ll make some picks for this week and hope to keep the wins rolling.

Because I’m a man. I’m 30. And this ain’t intramurals, brother. It’s Division-I football!

(I went 3-1 last week and I’m now 17-14-1 on the season.)

Kansas vs. Texas Tech (-6.5, 69)

Break out the Twinkies and cookie dough ice cream because the FLG’s are going to need some comfort food after this one.

Pick: Kansas +6.5

Rutgers vs. Connecticut (-7.5, 46)

Not going to get into this one much because I covered it in depth last week. No one can blame the Huskies if a letdown follows after the week they’ve had.

Pick: Rutgers +7.5

Southern Miss vs. Houston (-6.5, 62.5)

Not sure this line is as low as it is, which has me a little worried. But Case Keenum has this Houston offense clicking and hopefully the Cougs learned the lesson this season about not losing to teams that aren’t as good as you are.

Pick: Houston -6.5

Michigan State vs. Minnesota (+3.5, 46)

No Eric Decker = no chance for the Gophers.

The team announced earlier this week their star receiver and only offensive threat is done for the year with a strained arch in his left foot that might need a sew job.

Decker has half of Minnesota's passing yards and five of Adam Weber’s six touchdown tosses this year. And fortunately for us, oddsmakers haven't adjusted because nobody gives a crap about this game.

Pick: Michigan State 

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Posted by slmdnk
5 years ago

For the 2nd straight week Doobie has written extensively about why Oreon will lose outright -- forget about covering. Last week DB had 8 picks and six were bad. He even had Rice. Who the fu*k picks Rice -- unless it's baseball season? He's long winded and self important. And on the Ducks he couldn't be more wrong. Prediction: DB will take Stanford over Oregon. LOL!
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Posted by bodio
5 years ago

Doobie...good stuff
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Posted by doobiebrother
5 years ago

No plays until 2 pm est, so gave myself a little extra time for write-ups today. CFB 35-35-1 (-2.4) All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. 4* SMU (+15) over Tulsa – Number seems a little ridiculous as there’s not much difference between these teams. Just 4 spots separate them in my power rankings and Sagarin has them even closer (Tulsa #82, SMU #84). My statistical matchup shows Tulsa should be favored by 3. SMU actually outgained Houston on the road last week 397-394 and Tulsa is just a 4-3 team with wins over Tulane, N. Mexico, Sam Houston St., and Rice. ‘Canes also have look ahead to Houston next week. SMU 9-2 vs. Tulsa and plays in revenge for 37-31 home loss LY in which Tulsa completed 33 yard TD pass on 4th and 21. 3* Ga Tech (-11.5) over Vandy – Jackets have covered the number in 5 straight with option offense on a roll and “D” improving weekly. With toughest part of schedule behind them and only loss on road vs. quality opponent (Miami) they are thinking BCS and even have outside shot at title game. Vandy off tough loss at S. Carolina that virtually eliminated them from bowl contention, and has Florida on deck. Commodores couldn’t stop Army’s option and gave up 250 rushing yards in 15-3 home loss to Miss St.. Ga Tech offense should continue to roll, and Vandy doesn’t have the offense to answer (#98 total, #110 scoring, #119 pass efficiency.) 3* Arkansas (-36.5) over EMU – Explosive Hogs’ offense takes huge step down after playing Florida and Ole Miss, and could go for 60 or 70. Eagles #119 in total offense (265) and at 0-7 with Thursday MAC game vs. NIU in 5 days, no reason for them to even show up here. EMU 7-26 vs. non-con opponents. 3* Florida (-14.5) over Georgia – Gators are probably the best defensive team ever, returning the entire 2 deep from ‘08’s #1 scoring “D”. MSU had 2 interception returns for TDs last week, so the offense actually only scored 5. Like nearly all Florida opponents, Georgia will likely score 13 or less, and their defense has already allowed 37 to S. Carolina, 41 to Arkansas, and 45 to Tennessee. CFB’s best team kicks it up a notch here. 3* Kentucky (-3.5) over Miss St. – Despite losing some key players, Kentucky nearly pulled upset at S. Carolina (26-28), pulled the upset at Auburn, and then rolled ULM. Can’t see them giving it up here as end schedule is tough, but this win and another at home next week vs. E. Kentucky makes them bowl eligible. Wildcats have slightly better team, home field, and strong coaching. 3* S.Carolina/Tennessee under (42.5) - Teams rank #2 (SC) and #4 (Tenn) in pass defense and both are inefficient passing (Gamecocks 111.5 #93, Vols 99.8 #107). Both should have just enough success rushing to move the chains every 3 plays and thus move the clock. SC already has 26 point total vs. Ole Miss, 26 vs. Bama, and coming off 24 vs. Vandy. Under 17-2 in Tennessee SEC home games. 3* USC (-3) over Oregon – Ducks added Washington game to growing list of misleading scores as they only outgained Huskies 416-395 but won in a blowout. They seem to be one of these “find a way to win” teams but USC a tough team to find a way against. Trojans very difficult to run on (held Cal/Best to 86 yards on road) and Oregon doesn’t have a passing game (157 #108). In fact Oregon only #66 in total offense (356) and was held to 152 by Boise, 356 by Purdue, 312 by Utah, and 303 by UCLA. This Oregon team has been spunky and resilient and made timely big plays, but is not legit top 10 and not good enough to deny Trojans 8th straight Pac 10 title.
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Posted by StevenGA1011
5 years ago

NMST +44 SJST +36.5 WAST +27.5 TEX/OKST UNDER 53 USC/ORE UNDER 49
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Posted by Jon_Campbell
5 years ago

Longhorn and buckeye are correct. This line was bet down immediately after it opened, not when Decker's injury was announced. I'd say Decker is worth three points at least to Minnesota, maybe more. Somebody is going to have to step up in a big way for the Gophers if they're going to move the ball.
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Posted by Flava83
5 years ago

These were some of the tightest games on the board...GL though
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Posted by buckeye61
5 years ago

I believe the line dropped prior to Vegas catching wind of Decker sitting out. It stayed at -3.5 MSU on my book....fluctuating half a point throughout the week as well as the juice. I think MSU wins this but maybe only by a FG. They don't play well on the road but who knows, today MSU could man up and win by 14. Take MSU in a ML parlay with Fla, etc.
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Posted by carlat
5 years ago

books scared of being middled
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Posted by tabronw
5 years ago

Just saw the line movement....let me rephrase that...Minn is gonna win this one straight up and without their star player...why would the line move down if Vegas knew Decker was injured????
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Posted by tabronw
5 years ago

Mich St is gonna win this one in a close game
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Posted by LonghornHoosier
5 years ago

freightdog and absolut - are you guys just complete idiots or what... the line adjusted down from Minn +6 to Minn +3 earlier in the week because sharps and bettors thought that Minn was undervalued. this was made with the assumption that Decker would play. Now that Decker is out, Jon is saying that the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line back up closer to +6 (which would be expected with Minn loss of their best player) to reflect an anticipated hoard on Mich St. That's why this is potentially a great opp for betters. Vegas hasn't made the adjustment yet, or alternatively, they know something we don't. Conventional wisdom would say that the line would most certainly be back to Minn +6 or greater by now...
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Posted by freightdog
5 years ago

exactly bmcneill, which was the whole point of my initial post. they ARE adjusting the line, but in the opposite direction of the injury. My question was why?
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Posted by bmcneill
5 years ago

Minnesota is the DOG.. if they were adjusting (for Decker's Injury) the line would move HIGHER not lower.... 1+1=2
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Posted by Absolutxedge22
5 years ago

imjust2gud so how do you see Minnesota moving the ball without their best player on offense?
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Posted by Absolutxedge22
5 years ago

imjust2gud so how do you see Minnesota moving the ball without their best player on offense?
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Posted by imjust2gud
5 years ago

Maybe because the Spartans really arent that good and after last week's loss i will go against them every week
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Posted by Absolutxedge22
5 years ago

J_Logan if they didn't adjust for Decker's injury then what did they adjust? Decker was ruled out for the season on Tuesday. The line was Minnesota +6, +4, and now sits at 3.5. Go Green, Go White!
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Posted by Absolutxedge22
5 years ago

I agree with freightdog any insight here?
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Posted by J_Logan
5 years ago

Books haven't adjusted for Decker's injury, freightdog. If they did the line would be moving in the other direction. Go Green Go White!
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Posted by freightdog
5 years ago

You said "oddsmakers haven't adjusted because nobody give a crap" in reference to the Minnesota game, however, they did adjust. The line went from Minnesota +6 to Minnesota +3.5. Explain that one...
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Posted by wade38
5 years ago

Great article, fat lil girlfriends, lol, I am definitley a Mike Leach fan now.
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Top Response

Posted by tabronw
5 years ago

"Mich St is gonna win this one in a close game"