I can’t help but feel a small connection between myself and Jason Campbell.

Maybe it’s because I always thought that I’d look badass if I grew a Lando Calrissian-style mustache like the one the Washington Redskins quarterback sports.

Or maybe it’s because this is the first time this column (NFL Underdogs) is fielding the same writer since Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie were just super-good buddies.        

Yes, we all know that Campbell’s long list of past offensive coordinators has slowed his development in the NFL. Four different play-callers in his years at Auburn and three various systems while in Washington… that’s a lot to digest for a young QB.

NFL Week 1 Betting News

Make sure you're ready for the first Sunday of the NFL season.

NFL Underdogs: Week 1

Who are Week 1's live dogs?

Sunday Night Football

NFC North rivals showdown.

NFL prop shop

Betting isn't just spreads.

Total bias: Week 1

Best Week 1 over/under plays.

NFL cheat sheet

Get the need-to-know info.

Learn from a pro

Start betting like a sharp.

NFL Spread sheet

The story behind the odds.

Covers.com staff picks

Who we like in Week 1.

Washington management flirted with acquiring Jay Cutler before the Bears snatched him, and there were whispers of the Skins possibly trading up in the draft to secure USC sophomore Mark Sanchez.

Campbell has to live with the fact that his owner would have traded him for a box of florescent-colored post-it notes if he had been able to land either Cutler or Sanchez. I share a similar pain. There were rumors that the higher-ups considered replacing me with literary expert and former Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith.

I’ve got a tough road ahead of me if the past few seasons are any indication. Favorites are 19-12-1 against the spread in Week 1 the past two campaigns.

I better hope Emmitt Smith finds more work besides those Just for Men commercials, otherwise it’s going to be no work for Mr. Guesswork.

I finished a game short of .500 (26-27-2) last year, thanks to the Cardinals’ (+4) straight-up playoff win over the Eagles. Hopefully that modest record lowers any expectations from my readers and we’ll all be pleasantly surprised when I finish the season in the black.

Now, down to bidness.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) at New York Giants

Well, I can’t write that lead about the parallels between Jason Campbell and myself and not pick the Skins. There wasn’t much to like about Campbell and his teammates’ performance in the preseason. But the group comes into its second year under head coach Jim Zorn’s offense and we’re sure to see better execution than what we witnessed during last season’s 16-7 loss to the G-Men.

The glut of unproven players at the wide receiver position isn’t what Giants backers should be concerned about. New York’s offense feeds off its running game, not Eli’s arm.

Steve Spagnuolo’s departure is the biggest issue for the Giants. Will the defense be as aggressive and unpredictable as it was under its former coordinator?

Guesswork Grewal says no.

Pick: Skins +6.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (+1)

The public is eating up the Iggles after Andy Reid finally added some weapons to the offense. And yes, there are some sexy options for Donovan McNabb to use on passing downs, but I still worry about Philly’s inability to run in short yardage situations.

Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley’s loss for the year isn’t getting the attention it deserves. You can’t just put any Joey in the middle of that defense.

I love the Panthers in this spot too. It’s their first chance to make up for that embarrassing playoff beating at the hands of the Cardinals. You don’t think Jake Delhomme wasn’t thinking about this game every time he stared at himself in the mirror at the barbershop, while getting that same bad haircut?

Pick: Panthers +1

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Okay, this is my prejudice pick of the week. I’m a lifelong Niners fan, so take this selection for what it’s worth.

There are still reasons to like my boys this weekend. Several Arizona reporters are raising warning flags about Kurt Warner’s health. He’s looked bad throughout August and some are wondering if he’s completely recovered from last spring’s hip surgery.

Arizona’s offense doesn’t go without Warner’s quick release. If his timing is off, even by a half second, he could return to the turnover machine he was before his renaissance a year ago.

Pick: 49ers +6.5

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

 FACEBOOK
 
 TWITTER
          share   SHARE   rss   RSS FEED   email   EMAIL   print   PRINT
Hide All Responses
avatar

Posted by RMAC04
3 years ago

told you should fade this guy
avatar

Posted by rrich
3 years ago

Way to go Texans you made my 5-0 day into a 4-1 day. Oh well not bad.
avatar

Posted by doobiebrother
3 years ago

6-4 (+4.8) Saturday, 12-10 (+4.75) season. All plays 2* today. Chiefs/Ravens Under (36.5) – Baltimore upgraded a “D” that was already perennial top 10, KC is without QB Cassell and scored just 2 preseason TDs. Chiefs have averaged just 14.6 PPG in L17 away. Ravens did nothing to improve weak passing game (#28) and will content to run vs. weak Chiefs’ rush “D” (#30). Lions/Saints Over (49.5) – Saints were #1 offense, Lions #32 defense, and Detroit has allowed at least 27 in 11 of L12 road games (31> 9 times). Lions great double digit road dogs (10-0 ATS) primarily because of back door covers with excellent WRs beating backup defenders. Over is 5-0 Lions away, 7-2 Lions in Sept., 5-1 Lions away in Sept., and 11-2 Saints at home. Giants (-6.5) – NYG have the Skins number as they are 5-1 SU & ATS L6 (1-1 H) and 4-1 SU & ATS at H. Washington has averaged just 12.0 PPG in L9 trips to NY and have done little to improve their #28 scoring offense. NYG 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in Sept. Seahawks (-7.5) over Rams – Both teams have some key injuries (Rams QB Bulger will play) but Hawks still have the better team and strong home field. Lots of technical support as Seattle is 11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS home in Sept., and 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS as HF 7>. St. Louis is 0-8 SU & ATS in Sept., 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS away in Sept., 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS vs. Seattle, and 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS vs. the division (1-5, 1-5 away).
avatar

Posted by belmore49
3 years ago

Ml parlay.......den sf...mia.....pays 24-1 get some
avatar

Posted by bgoda88
3 years ago

Teams I am considering in Teasers would be: Baltimore Cinncinatti Houston
avatar

Posted by WizrduvOdz
3 years ago

I like all 3. Also like Mia +4
avatar

Posted by Ashton_Grewal
3 years ago

Hey fellas, Glad to see we're all fired up about today's full board. What's our favorite doggy pick for the early games? Is anyone liking the Jags at +6.5 to +7 now with Bob Sanders out for the Colts? I still think Indy covers, but I'd feel a lot better if the difference-making safety was in the lineup. How about the Lions... I know, I know, it's the Lions... but still 13.5 against an inconsisent Saints team? Something to consider... no? How about teasers? What's the best two-team 6-point teaser for today? I'm all ears...
avatar

Posted by MTFN50
3 years ago

I still fel the cowboys will win by doulbe digits.TB has major issues starting with the coaching staff.new cord. hired 10days ago??? They got rid of the best thing they had going for them in Grueden.Ithink Romo is out to prove its his team and he dont need TO.Looking for Willams to redeem himself and actually play up to his potential. Any thoughts?
avatar

Posted by luckyly
3 years ago

well it loks like u got 1 right....................san fran
avatar

Posted by TimTowner
3 years ago

I like the 49ers pick. They could have a winning record this year under Singletary. I think they were at .500 or slightly higher when he took over.
avatar

Posted by NY624TC
3 years ago

I can't believe Covers still pays this guy....really covers
avatar

Posted by glyde69
3 years ago

PM is a sort of email service on Covers where members can shoot each other messages or email. Look in the top right of your box and click SEND PM and you can send anyone a message. Also, e careful on the Bears. As a Bears fan, I've been fighting the allure of the Pack that has been in my face the last month. I can't fight it no more. I pounded the Pack and fully expect a rout. I'm gonna root for the Bears, don't get me wrong, but at the end of the night I think the Pack put this game away by the time Entourage and the True Blood replay start.
avatar

Posted by glyde69
3 years ago

Hey dude, I was just messing around being a cock. I apologize. Go get em' today!!!!
avatar

Posted by jfrizz123
3 years ago

where the line ends up is useless information...pay close attention to where the vegas masterminds set the line at in the beginning of the week....
avatar

Posted by jfrizz123
3 years ago

If i were going to bet a dog today...i would take a strong look at two teams...first would be the bronco's...vegas opens that line a cinci -1...and the public hammers it to -5...if the public likes cinci that much why would they only open as a 1 point favorite..hmm secondly would have to be the panthers plus 2.5 as of this morning..vegas opened them as a one point favorite and once again the public took the bait and hammered the eagles to -2.5...if you want to loose keep betting with the public...make sense let me kno
avatar

Posted by extreme2420
3 years ago

OH AND GLYDE69 I KNOW YOU MEANT IM LOL. GL ALL
avatar

Posted by extreme2420
3 years ago

hey glyde69 whats a PM? and to a point i know what you mean about ashtons picks. but i must say and i dont like most of his picks but he has been right some time lol.some times hey but thats part of trying to pick football games with spreads. Now if anyone here was any type of big players or winners you woundnt be here at covers looking for an edge. as far as his first weeks pick oh please great football god please make him wrong this week lol. i have car qb on my fantasy team but guess what hes on the bench and i have kurt starting from ariz. now i have to say washington might cover but ive and even out right win. car is going to be in a world of hurt today. mark my words PHILY WILL OUT RIGHT WIN AND WIN GOOD. why you ask they want it bad. they know last year they lost alot of support from the fans and expect more from phily plus westbrook is in the line up. ariz will will by 7 close game at the end but old rusty kurt will win by a touchdown late in the game. now if you want a good play of the day. BEARS +4 AND BEARS +175 MONEY LINE 1 UNIT OUTRIGHT TO WIN 4 UNITS AT +4. BEARS HAVE A QB looking for a teaser or small par try this one today. bears +4 miami +4 dallas -5 cinnci -5 DONT WASTE YOUR MONEY ON GREENBAY TO BEAT THE BEARS. BEARS ARE +4 AND WILL AT LEAST COVER THE SPREAD BUT IM SURE THELL DO BETTER THEN JUST COVER OUTRIGHT WIN. +175 AND +4 ON THE SPREAD.
avatar

Posted by rrich
3 years ago

I like his picks. Here are my best 5 at the number I got them at. Jax +7 (Always play the Colts close) SF +7 (Zona will take a step back, 9ers a step up this year) Skins +7 (Rivalry produces close game every year) Hou -4 (Jets mediocre, Texans look good if healthy) New Eng - 10 (Buffalo will win 3 games this year, Brady looking to impress) If you are going to rip my picks make sure you come back after the games to eat crow.
avatar

Posted by CSFurious
3 years ago

Skins are a bad pick this weekend. The other two are good picks. I think that you forgot that before the Plaxico incident last season that the G-men were off to an 11-1 start. Jason Campbell cannot play QB in this league. Lay the points, take the G-Men.
avatar

Posted by ronnie101
3 years ago

Skins never start out good from the gate i actually have g men on the money line -280 shouild be an easy 100
avatar

Posted by StevenGA1011
3 years ago

NYJ +4.5 JAX +6.5 SF +6 NYG -6.5 CHI +4
avatar

Posted by hitthard38
3 years ago

Balt no nyg. Gbay n get money
avatar

Posted by glyde69
3 years ago

This guy couldn't pick a winner if it slapped him in the face, and he has to pick three teams I really like. My luck Ashton, shoot me a PM and I'll show you how it's done!
avatar

Posted by MrMannix
3 years ago

Agree with Frito.
avatar

Posted by Nasterdamus
3 years ago

Here are my 3 dogs: Kansas City +13 Jax +7 Miami +4
         1   2    next page    last page
You are currently not logged in.
Login | Signup | Help
You must be logged in to post a comment.

Top Response

Posted by NY624TC
3 years ago

"I can't believe Covers still pays this guy....really covers"

                  (+0)     (-0)

Sports Betting Headlines »

Featured Free Play
MLB: Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick:
Detroit
Start:
May 25, 2013 - 4:08 PM
Capper:
Will Rogers
Offered at:
bet365 @ -1.5 -105 Detroit
Analysis:

It's two teams going different ways when Minnesota and Detroit play Saturday afternoon and with the price being where it is, I'll be selecting the Tigers on the Run Line (-1.5).  Detroit has taken the first two games of this series, 7-6 and 6-0.  I envision the game today playing out like yesterday's where Anibal Sanchez took a no-hitter into the 9th inning.  Minnesota has now lost 10 in a row.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Recent Results - While the Twins have been losing, the Tigers have been winning - four straight, in fact. Detroit is averaging over seven runs per game during this time frame.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is struggling badly.  Four players in yesterday's lineup came in batting .212 or worse on the season.  Any time a team has lost 10 games in a row, there's a multitude of things going wrong. Such is the case with the Twins right now.

2.  Homefield Advantage - The Tigers continue to get the job done at Comerica Park this season.  They are 15-7 at home and averaging more than six runs per game there. Obviously, it's going to be tough for Minnesota to match that kind of production.

3. X-Factor - The Tigers have a deep rotation and after having to deal with Sanchez yesterday, the Twins face Doug Fister Saturday afternoon.  Fister threw his own complete game shutout against Minnesota the last time he faced them, which was last September. He's a perfect 4-0 at home this season with a 3.00 ERA. 

Selection:  This is a Run Line Play (-1.5) on the Detroit Tigers (1*).

show more show less