College four-play: Week 13 predictions

By JON CAMPBELL - COVERS EDITOR

As I watched Darius McClure’s college football career tumble to the turf in a heap of celebratory gloom on Saturday, I couldn’t help but thinking:

“I feel ya, dawg.”

Not the blown up knee part. Not the Grammatica-esque humiliation McClure suffered from mangling his leg on a botched chest-bump following his first career interception.

OK, maybe a touch of that.

But I’m talking more about the symbolic agony I’m feeling after going 1-3 for the third straight week. I’m now 23-19-2 for the year and running out of real estate on this college season.

You know we’re getting close to the end of things when Michigan-Ohio State week rolls around. And for the first time in Four-play history, I won’t be making a play on this game. It doesn’t deserve it. Not with a 20.5-point spread.

The closest I’ll get to this game is wearing a sweater vest to work today, a la Jim Tressel, for which I have suffered multiple verbal thrashings from co-workers. I honestly don’t know how Tressel goes through life like this.

Let’s get on with the picks and start things off with the real best Big Ten game on the board this week.

Michigan State vs. Penn State (-15.5, 48)

This line seems high for what’s essentially a Big Ten title game.

The problem for Sparty is Penn happens to be pretty good at stopping the run, which means Brian Hoyer is going to have to generate some offense with his arm at some point. He is capable, but he also has a gruesome 49.5 completion percentage.

State’s defense has been tough the last three games though, so that should help him out and be enough to at least cover this number.

Pick: Michigan State

West Virginia vs. Louisville (+7, 46)

I’ve been waiting for Louisville to get good this year, but it just isn’t happening. Oddsmakers just aren’t adjusting enough, either.

West Virginia still has a decent shot at the Big East title with Cincy facing Pitt this week, so I can see a big win here.

Pick: West Virginia

BYU vs. Utah (+7.5, 54)

OMG! It’s the Holy War. The day we find out which school Jesus loves more.

If we’re sticking to biblical reasoning here, I’m going with BYU. Utes supporters have a little too much pride for my liking, the most deadly of the seven sins.

The Salt Lake City council issued a challenge this week to the Provo council that the loser of this game has to sing its opponent’s fight song in front of the winning side’s council.

"The BCS is written all over this thing for Utah," Salt Lake City councilman Eric Jergensen pronounced earlier this week.

According to a report in the Salt Lake Tribune, Provo responded with this:

"The Provo City Council accepts your challenge. Please wear blue."

Mormans and their gambling.

Pick: BYU

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma (-7, 75)

This is kind of a big game, you might have heard. Something about BCS national championship implications.

It's so tempting to take Oklahoma. It can’t be humanly possible to beat Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma all in a row, can it?

But if you look at the Sooners’ defensive numbers lately, it’s hard to come up with reasons why they’ll be able to keep Tech below 100 points on Saturday. Oklahoma has allowed at least 28 points in its last five games against some average competition and only held one of those (shoddy A&M) to fewer than 400 yards.

Sacks are what the Sooners do best on defense, where they rank second in the nation, but that’s a wash because TT is No. 2 in sacks allowed.

Tech’s defense, on the other hand, isn’t getting the credit it deserves. The Raiders have allowed a respectable 24.7 points per game and 352.4 yards over their last three against some of the best offenses in the nation.

Points will be scored in this one, but defense will ultimately decide things.

Pick: Texas Tech

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Posted by HandiMan
4 years ago

Long time reader, never really post. Doobie, I might not always agree with your picks but they're well thought out and based on good logic. As for my picks for today so far: Ohio St./Mich Second Half Over 21.5 - I missed the early games and needed some action to tide me over. Akron -2 @ Ohio - Ohio on a 3 game losing streak, and Akron 4-1 on the road this season. Almost had three wins in a row if not for that 3 point loss to Buffalo. Ohio's also 1-3 in the conference and isn't playing for much these days. Boise State -6.5 @ Nevada. Boise State is gonna be fired up to come out at Nevada this week. Their D is letting up 20 points less per game than Nevada's and will keep the Wolfpack under 24 points, while Boise's O will put up at least 30. Also like UTEP and the Oregon St. call. Good luck to all.

Posted by doobiebrother
4 years ago

7-11-1 (-16.2) LW. CFB 61-47-1 (+30.9). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. BC/Wake Forest Under (40)- Deacons will have trouble on offense as they are #101 overall, have no running game (#112, 112 YPG, 2.8 YPR) and face Eagles “D” that’s #5 vs. pass efficiency and #8 overall. WF “D” will have to keep them in the game, and should be able vs. BC offense #89 overall, #98 passing (174), and #104 efficiency (103.6). Ohio St. (-20.5) – Michigan plays 8th straight week and 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Their #105 offense has no hope vs. OSU’s #13 “D”, which has held 19 of 23 opponents to 17< at H. Buckeye offense and QB Pryor starting to roll, and will have no problem vs. Michigan “D” that’s allowed 473> yards in 4 of L6. Tressel knows the importance of this one in the recruiting wars, and will pour it on. Tennessee (+3) – Fulmer may be a lame duck, but you can bet his players got an earful about Volunteer pride after embarrassing home L to Wyoming. He was born and raised in Tennessee and has been on the sideline in one form or another since enrolling as a player in 1968. Vols have won 26 of 27 vs. Vandy, and Commodores are 1-27 SU H in Nov. Vols #7 “D” (276) vs. Vandy #116 offense (267) is a mismatch, especially with an extra week to prepare. Despite rivalry, could be let down spot for Vandy, after finally clinching rare bowl berth LW. Not often you get a motivated dog with huge talent advantage. Texas Tech/Oklahoma Over (76) – Neither offense can be stopped and neither will slow it down to keep the other off field. Raiders average 47.9 PPG TY, with 35 the low, and have averaged 43.1 in L11 A. Oklahoma has already allowed 28 to Nebraska, 31 to Kansas, and 26 to Cincy in Norman. Sooners average 49.4 in L14 at H. Over 6-0 TT L6, 4-0 TT A vs. Big 12, 9-1 Sooners L10, and 11-2 Sooners H. Penn St. (-15.5) - MSU the most fortunate team in CFB this year, and has not remotely as well as their record, outgaining foes by just 12 YPG. Penn St. has 15 seniors starting last H game, playing in revenge for Big 10 championship and Rose Bowl berth. Ringer gets nothing vs. nasty Lions run “D” (102, 3.0) and they’ve had poor QB play (#75 efficiency). Spartans “D” can’t stop run (149, 4.3) and has allowed 459> total yards in 3 of their 4 road games. TCU (-20) – Air Force has played over their heads all year while TCU has legit top 15 talent. Frogs quick “D” should have no problem shutting down AF option, especially with a week off to prepare. TCU 9-1 HF 12>, off bitter L to Utah, and in revenge for miracle comeback win by Falcons LY. UTEP (+17) – This line a knee jerk reaction to Houston’s blowout of Tulsa. Miners a better team than most think getting solid play from QB Vittatoe, who’s #17 in efficiency (148.0). UTEP 6-1 DD RD and catches Cougars in sandwich between Tulsa and next week’s road game at Rice, which will likely decide the CUSA West champ. Oregon St. (+2.5) – OSU still not getting the respect they deserve, as they should be 10-1 and have outplayed their opponent in every game save one (PSU). This team has no weakness with great passing, running, and return game, plus solid #15 “D” (289) featuring 8 seniors. Despite freak losses at Stanford and Utah TY, Beavers still 25-7 SU L32, just 3 wins less than USC over same period. Arizona improved, but Riley vs. Stoops is a coaching mismatch, and OSU program on verge of perennial top 15 status. 5 on Ohio St., 4 on PSU, all others 3.

Posted by doobiebrother
4 years ago

Oops, wrong game. Penn St. is a 4 unit play. the 5 unit play (at noon) is on Ohio St. Ohio St. (-20.5) – Michigan plays 8th straight week and 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Their #105 offense has no hope vs. OSU’s #13 “D”, which has held 19 of 23 opponents to 17< at H. Buckeye offense and QB Pryor starting to roll, and will have no problem vs. Michigan “D” that’s allowed 473> yards in 4 of L6. Tressel knows the importance of this one in the recruiting wars, and will pour it on.

Posted by doobiebrother
4 years ago

Still typing up all the plays, but my big one goes at noon. The rest will be up in about 15 minutes. Penn St. (-15.5) - MSU the most fortunate team in CFB this year, and has not remotely as well as their record, outgaining foes by just 12 YPG. Penn St. has 15 seniors starting last H game, playing in revenge for Big 10 championship and Rose Bowl berth. Ringer gets nothing vs. nasty Lions run “D” (102, 3.0) and they’ve had poor QB play (#75 efficiency). Spartans “D” can’t stop run (149, 4.3) and has allowed 459> total yards in 3 of their 4 road games. 5 PSU

Posted by XtremeSelectee
4 years ago

Looks like another 1-3 week. Good luck anyways!

Posted by MR219
4 years ago

Yeah, it is alot of games but I am having a very good season picking CFB games. I need to get the action while I still can lol! I am adding two more plays: Arizona -2.5 and Ole Mis +3.5, 1 unit each. Good luck everyone with your selections!

Posted by tstort10
4 years ago

Not that I care. But if you did a write up about Islam, Black Theologian Religion, Hindu, etc like you did with the BYU vs Utah game about Mormons, joking about the holy war and who Jesus loves more, you would be fired and called a racist. However, if you consider Jesus your God, you are fair game to anytype of jokes, etc. Things like this show the double standard in the country. I dare you to do a sarcastic write up like that about Islam when you find a connection to a player or school who supports that religion. Maybe do a sarcastic write up like that about Grambling or any black school. Or, are you a coward

Posted by KasperNV
4 years ago

I like them all except BYU. I wonder if the Tabernacle Choir knows the Utes fight song.

Posted by bern2002
4 years ago

MR219, too many picks my friend!

Posted by MR219
4 years ago

6-1 in posted CFB plays last week. Here are my plays. Too tired for a write-up this week. 1 Wake Forest -2.5 @ -110 Risk: 110.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 2 Purdue -9.5 @ -140 Risk: 140.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 3 Notre Dame -20.0 @ -110 Risk: 165.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 150.00 4 Texas Tech +7.5 @ -125 Risk: 125.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 5 Boise State -6.0 @ -120 Risk: 120.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 6 BYU +7.5 @ -120 Risk: 120.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 7 Minnesota +7.5 @ -140 Risk: 280.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 200.00 8 West Virginia -6.5 @ -120 Risk: 120.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 9 Memphis -4.0 @ -130 Risk: 130.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00 10 Florida Atlantic +4.5 @ -120 Risk: 120.00 Straight Potential Winnings: 100.00

Posted by DallasLoanGuy
4 years ago

Yeah... I fear that the Sooner D will be their achilles heel. That, and special teams. But I will have my Sooner garb on and a beer in hand.... and will enjoy this big game!! Boomer Sooner, Ya'll!!

Posted by QMICH
4 years ago

"OMG! It’s the Holy War. The day we find out which school Jesus loves more". HEY JON, THE ND - BC GAME HAS ALREADY BEEN PLAYED!

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Posted by doobiebrother
4 years ago

"Still typing up all the plays, but my big one goes at noon. The rest will be up in about 15 minutes. Penn St. (-15.5) - MSU the most fortunate team in CFB this year, and has not remotely as well as their record, outgaining foes by just 12 YPG. Pen..."

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Featured Free Play

MLB: Chi. Cubs vs. Pittsburgh

Pick:: Pittsburgh
Start:: May 21, 2013 - 7:05 PM
Capper:: Bryan Power
Offered at:: betonline @ -132 Pittsburgh
Analysis:

1* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Good matchup here for the surging Bucs taking on the struggling Cubs. Having won 8 of 10, at home, and with a hot pitcher on the mound, Pittsburgh should roll here.

The Pirates have won both series so far on the current homestand, including taking two of three over the weekend against Houston, their old NL Central rival. Now they play a current division foe, one that's lost three of five. Pittsburgh has revenge on its mind here after dropping two of three early in the season here at PNC Park. Fortunately, they have Wandy Rodriguez on the mound for Tuesday's series opener. The southpaw has won back to back starts, allowing only two runs over 13 innings. His ERA in four home starts thus far is a sparkling 1.35.

The Cubs come in averaging just 2.7 runs per game vs. lefties, batting .217. They are not a good road team either, averaging only 2.9 runs while batting .218. Pittsburgh is 15-9 at home. Chicago will go with Matt Garza for the 1st time in 2013 Tuesday. An injury to his right elbow caused him to miss almost the entire second half of 2012. A lat injury has caused him to miss the first two months of this season. He will be on a strict pitch count. He'll also have to deal with Pittsburgh having Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup. 1* Pittsburgh.

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