College four-play: Week 12 predictions

We sports bettors are a finicky lot.

 

One week, we hate a team, the next we fall in love faster than Elizabeth Taylor. And oddsmakers know it.

 

That’s why they adjust their lines according to what happened last week, as much as they don’t want to sometimes.

 

That’s the theme for this week’s picks – lines that have been set too hastily in hopes of matching public perception. But we know better, don’t we?

 

Especially after going 1-3 last week. I’m now  22-17-2 on the season.

 

Purdue vs. Iowa (-18.5, 44)

 

Oddsmakers opened the Hawkeyes as two-touchdown faves but it seems they underestimated the fetish bettors have quickly developed after watching them upset Penn State last week.

 

Penn State didn’t really look like it went into that game taking Iowa seriously. Unlike Iowa, the Nits didn’t even have heaters going on their sideline, thinking they could beat this team with only long underwear. No heaters people!   

 

Penn State went to sleep in the fourth and allowed the Hawkeyes to kick the winning field goal in the nick of time and Iowa became an instant big fave.

 

I don’t think Purdue is exactly giddy about visiting that pink locker room this week, but the Boilers should be able to keep it within a couple of scores against this blasé Hawkeye offense.

 

Pick: Purdue

 

South Carolina vs. Florida (-22.5, 49.5)

 

Whoa, what happened here? Penn State loses, suddenly waking the nation up to the fact the Gators are pretty darn good after all, and they’re made whopping faves against the ol’ ball coach.

 

Florida went from no respect to too much in just a few short weeks. I love this Gators squad but they’re going to get the Cocks’ best game this week and I’m worried that all the Bama-Florida talk could be a distraction.

 

Pick: South Carolina

 

Troy vs. LSU (-16.5, 54)

 

LSU has three losses, which is enough to make Tigers fans hate everybody. Troy, on the other hand, has a penchant for playing BCS schools tough and those in Baton Rouge will remember the too-close-for-comfort victory over the Trojans in ’04.

 

But this is still LSU. And this is still Troy - that team from the Sun Belt Conference. Some of you in Baton Rouge may have heard of it.   

 

Even though Tigers QB Jarrett Lee stinks worse than whatever is in my refrigerator, this will be a confidence builder for him. And les Tigres owe a big win to their fans after dropping two of their last three at home.

 

Pick: LSU

 

 

USC vs. Stanford (+24, 48.5)

 

OK, so this isn’t one of those games where oddsmakers have overreacted. In fact, they’ve underreacted.

 

This is the first meeting since the Cardinal pulled off the biggest upset in college football history and USC will be the punch line of that laugh-up for a very long time.

 

Pete Carroll will actually be petitioning officials to put more time on the clock so he can run up the score even more on Saturday.

 

Pick: USC

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Posted by Tyler_Reed
6 years ago

well zippy i stand corrected. . .1st half is over and i'm hurtin. . . how about Ok. St -10 first half v/s colorado?
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Posted by zippys
6 years ago

i don agree with the south carolina pick. line been going higher for florida...and with the at home advantage florida should easily win this covering by 28 points.
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Posted by testrite
6 years ago

Now onto tonights game
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Posted by testrite
6 years ago

Straight wager / 2BF83... 2008-11-15 11:07 $34.50 $65.86 $65.86 Win NCAA Football/G- (Notre Dame vs. Navy) Notre Dame Point Spread -5 (-110) 2008-11-15 12:20 Win Parlay / 728B1... 2008-11-15 11:05 $20.00 $72.89 $72.89 Win NCAA Football/G- Ohio St. @ Illinois Over 45 (-110) 2008-11-15 12:10 Win NCAA Football/G- (Notre Dame vs. Navy) Notre Dame Point Spread -5 (-110) 2008-11-15 12:20 Win
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Posted by testrite
6 years ago

Bullcrap on that ND / Navy game, But I still win
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Posted by Diamondjake
6 years ago

Go Texas I hope you guyr are right on that one.
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Posted by Tyler_Reed
6 years ago

hey where is everyone. .i'm sweating everything out purdue. . .n'western. . .navy . .texas and ohio st later on i like Minn., wake, unc, usc, and south car.
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Posted by doobiebrother
6 years ago

0-2 (-4.4) this week, CFB 57-42-1 (+42.0). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Wisconsin (-13.5) – Badgers need this for bowl eligibility and seniors play their last Big 10 game. Wisky has scored 34> in L6 meetings overall, and won L6 in Madison by 22.5 avg. (5-1 ATS). Badgers have averaged 270 YPG rushing in L4 H vs. Minny, and their #10 rush attack (224, 5.0) should again dominate Gophers rush “D” that ranks #65 (142, 4.2) and allowed 232 rushing yards to Michigan LW. Minny has scored just 15.5 PPG in Big 10 play. Badgers 4-0 HF 10-17. N.C. State (+3.5) - Wolfpack QB Wilson has been spectacular over his L5, going 84-142 (59.2%) for 1014 yards (7.1 YPA) with 10 TDs and no picks for 142.98 rating. This against teams with combined 29-16 record, all of which rank in top 60 in pass efficiency “D”, including BC and FSU, who rank #4 and #29. Pack offense has big play ability, something anemic #103 Wake offense (305 YPG) doesn’t have. NCS has near upsets of BC and FSU in Raleigh, and gets over the hump here to keep bowl hopes alive. Mississippi St. (+22) - Tide in double revenge and has next week off, but still must fade them here. Bama 0-11 HF 10> vs. SEC (0-2 TY) and 0-15 HF 14> vs. SEC. Bulldogs 9-1 A vs. Tide and Croom, who played at Bama under Bear Bryant, has had an extra week to prepare. MSU will overplay Bama rush attack and try to force Wilson, who’s thrown 4 picks vs. Dawgs L2Y, to beat their #2 pass “D”. MSU lacks offensive skill, but a veteran team and not overmatched athletically on either side. They will come with gritty effort to avoid bowl elimination. Tide will find a way to burn the money in this price range. Bama by 21. N. Mexico (-2) - On the surface looks like good spot for CSU, as they are still in bowl hunt with 17 senior starters playing last H game, while NM was eliminated LW at UNLV. Lobos dominated that game (yardage 380-258), but interception in end zone (returned 77 yards) and blocked punt TD gave Rebels the W. Lobo “D” has allowed just 2 first half TDs in L6 games, and TY has held TCU to 26, Arizona to 28, BYU to 21, AF to 23, and Utah to 13, despite numerous injuries. RB Ferguson and NM #15 rush attack (214, 4.6) should ramble on Rams #98 rush “D” (186, 5.2). Huge special teams edge as NM #11 in punt returns and #12 in KO returns, while CSU is #109 in net punting and #116 in KO return “D”. Lobos today will be 1st FBS team to finish season, and have 15 senior starters of their own, who will be playing their last CFB game ever. HC Long a master motivator and NM program, not bowl eligible for 1st time since 2000, will show their pride today. Texas/Kansas Over (66) – Kansas pass “D” is pitiful (#116, 276 YPG) and their L4 games have totaled 76, 84, 73, and 80. Jayhawks have averaged 44.7 PPG in L16 at H, being held below 28 just once, in recent 63-21 loss to Texas Tech, a game in which their offense rarely had the ball. Texas pass “D” can also be had (#109, 267 YPG) and the over is 18-3-1 in their L22 road games. Horns need style points, and won’t hesitate to go for a late TD, even with big lead. Iowa St. (+27) – Cyclones can surprise at H, where they’ve scored 31> in 5 of L6. They’re 5-1 SU & ATS H in Nov, 6-1 as DD HD, and have 3 SU wins and a 3 point L in L4 H vs. Missouri. Tigers barely escaped at Baylor and though Cyclones not as good, like the spot with them as huge HD with nothing to lose on senior day. Oregon St. (-3.5) – Valiant effort by Cal at USC provides good value here, as Bears are still just 1-7 SU in L8 road games, with only win at hapless WSU. Beavers are 48-11 SU at H, including current 14-1 run in which they’ve averaged 34.3 PPG. They’re also 9-1 SU H vs. Pac 10 (5-1 ATS L6) and 15-2 SU H in Nov since 1998. OSU on track for Pac 10 title and if they give it up it will be in final road game at Arizona, not on strong H field. Arizona/Oregon Over (59.5) – matchups favor offense with Oregon’s #5 rush attack (275, 5.9) vs. ‘Zona’s #52 run “D” (131, 4.0) and Cats #42 passing game (231) vs. Ducks #97 pass “D” (246). Weather is perfect, both teams have explosive return games, and I project teams to combine for 750 yards of total offense (Cats 368, Ducks 382). Auburn (+10) - Auburn hasn’t played well TY, but Tigers are 6-0 D 9> and in desperation mode, needing win today or at #1 Alabama to go bowling. Georgia plays 4th straight road game, including emotional tilts vs. LSU & Florida, and used a lot of energy in track meet at Kentucky LW. Auburn might as well be off a bye, as they hosted Ten-Martin LW. Dawgs in for a battle. Florida St. (-6) - Yeah, FSU suspended 3 WRs with 51 catches between them, but they still have starters Carr and Parker, who each have 24. The bigger question is how is BC offense that has averaged just 257 YPG in L4 and is #85 (35.7%) in 3rd down conversions going to score on FSU “D” that ranks #5 overall and #1 in 3rd downs (18.1%)? Eagles extremely fortunate vs. ND, benefitting from 5-0 TO advantage, but still could score just 17. Kicking game alone worth 3 points here as BC still searching for kicker (8-15 FG, no attempts outside 40), while FSU kicker Gano is 17-18 including 9-10 outside 40 and 5-6 outside 50. Seminoles 10-2 SU at H, scoring 24> in 9 of L10. Illinois (+9) - Would like this better if not for bad weather, but still must back Illini, who need win for bowl eligibility, are 6-1 vs. OSU, and 9-2 SU at H. All plays 3 units.
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Posted by DaShowStopa
6 years ago

Notre Dame -3.5 Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team. Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. In their most recent game, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple! In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. The game is technically on a "neutral site" in Baltimore but it is basically a home game for Navy. Go with the Irish.
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Posted by mvp12331233
6 years ago

Hey BARRY NICE juice on the OSU ML. Way to go out on a limb?
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Posted by Diamondjake
6 years ago

Hey Barry when your shift ends at Taco Bell give me a call so I can sign up for your service LOL.
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Posted by Diamondjake
6 years ago

BYU lay the points boys they are going to put the beat down on Air Force. We are talking blood bath...AF cannot stop BYU passing game.
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Posted by xraydonnie
6 years ago

ND over 52 to the BANK $$
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Posted by OhCanadiens
6 years ago

BARRY, you paid for those services? My 2 month old daughter gave me the same picks free. TAKE UGA TO THE BANK. Arf Arf.
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Posted by Tyler_Reed
6 years ago

definitely going with Purdue - last weeks win for Iowa was a too good of a highlight for such a garbage season they've had . . . Purdue played PSU tight this year as well, although coming up with a loss. I have alot more pics, but I'm hungry and I'm a be back after breakfast. . hhahaha
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Posted by letsgamble23
6 years ago

EARLY XMAS GIFT!!! BAYLOR AND A&M OVER 59. BET IT!!!!!
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Posted by LogansMichael
6 years ago

Notre Dame takes care of navy for sure.
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Posted by jeffr_52
6 years ago

maryland over carolina and notre dame over navy.
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Posted by ShadowWarrior
6 years ago

OOPS! I meant NOTRE DAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted by ShadowWarrior
6 years ago

Ohio St. or Navy!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted by barozzi
6 years ago

florida state by 17 georgia by 21
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Posted by lildurlee5
6 years ago

NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!
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Top Response

Posted by doobiebrother
6 years ago

"0-2 (-4.4) this week, CFB 57-42-1 (+42.0). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Wisconsin (-13.5) – Badgers need this for bowl eligibility and seniors play their last Big 10 game. Wisky has scored 34> in L6 meetings overall, and won L6 in Mad..."