NFL underdogs: Week 15 picks

Lineups. Traffic. Snowstorms. Shopping rage. Maybe the holiday season is turning everybody a little mental.

Take Bobby Petrino. Arkansas did – about 13 seconds after he officially flew the coup from the Atlanta Falcons with three games to go in his first (and probably last) stab at a head coaching gig in the pros.

Now the Falcons are in a big flap about the real meaning of family - one of the staples that Petrino preached to his players. This just days after Mike Vick, the former face of the franchise, learned he’ll be spending the better part of two years in the clink. 

There’s a ton of Christmas jeer to go around this year.

We have the Cheater Bowl on Sunday in New England which has Bill Belichick’s evil Patriots pegged as 23 ½-point favorites over the Jets and Eric Mangini, his understudy and chief whistle-blower of Spygate. Now that’s going to be an interesting post-game handshake.

Shawne Merriman, San Diego’s Pro Bowl sack master and former steroid suspendee, claims Jeff Fisher put a Soprano-like hit on him in last week’s game. Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson are squabbling again in the battle of the world’s biggest ego.

And the Miami Dolphins still haven’t won a game.

Maybe the holiday day blues are getting you down too, which would explain the flood of hate mail that came in following a 0-3 showing from my last litter of underdog picks.

Thing is, only four dogs covered the number in 15 games last weekend to begin with and favorites have won nearly 70 percent of this season’s games, covering in about 53 percent of those. 

Lines are generally much sharper this time of year after oddsmakers have had a chance to get a read on teams through the first few weeks. That means there are a lot more variables to factor into your handicapping. Any team that gets an underdog tag now definitely deserves it.

Plus you have to worry about each team’s motivation as it relates to the playoff picture, coaching changes or job security, as well as any kind of weather issues that can doom your early-week bets this time of year.

Such is the life of an underdog bettor. Tread carefully.

Buffalo at Cleveland – Bills +5 ½

You knew this was coming. Surprise, the Bills are pulling a Rodney Dangerfield.

"It's no different than any other week," linebacker Angelo Crowell told reporters. "We've been trying to make a statement around here every week. No one respects us, so we're just back to work.”

That’s the beauty of this Bills club. They could easily be 9-4 if a couple bounces had gone their way and are 8-4-1 against the spread as it is.

The defense has been solid all year and Trent Edwards gives the offense a real spark. I like the Browns a lot, but I’ll take the points with Buffalo. I’ll give them some respect.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Jaguars +3 ½

What would the Jaguars be with a consistent passing attack? A legitimate contender, that’s what.

Reggie Williams is doing his part. The former first-pick started slow and didn’t make much of an impact outside of the red zone until Week 9 when he went off for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Since then he’s become a much more consistent target for David Garrard, going over the middle and moving the chains to get into scoring position instead of waiting for a 12-yard fade route in the back of the end zone.

Washington at New York Giants – Redskins +4 ½

Sometimes tragedies have a way of pulling a team together.

The Redskins lost a heartbreaking 17-16 decision to the Bills just days following Sean Taylor’s death, but rebounded to smoke the Bears 24-16 less than a week later. They pulled out the win even though they lost their starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, to a knee injury in the process.

The 36-year-old backup Todd Collins was efficient in relief and you can expect much of the same this week in a huge game for Washington. He’s not flashy, but he’s a bright guy who’s learned a lot since his last start way back in 1997. He won’t make a mistake that loses the game – he can leave that up to the sloppy Giants.

Last week’s record: 0-3
Season record to date: 20-21-1

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Posted by badkabot
5 years ago

hein what about tomm nights bears game? 10.5 seems like alot of points in that game i think, thoughts??
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Posted by badkabot
5 years ago

hein told you chiefs are done, easy win w titans (although for the record i HATE betting against the chiefs, it makes me naucious!) we didn't look all that bad today but like i stated earlier in the week on here this was an easy one! 1-0 on the day w redskins -6 tonight.
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Posted by Kippspats
5 years ago

Tonite's game I like Giants -6.5 Over 35.5 not to big just reason to watch game
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Posted by pgatimmyd
5 years ago

Nice picks, charliemai. I will cover your picks any time you like!!!
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Posted by Kippspats
5 years ago

Took at 1:00pm Under Miami/Balt 37.5 GB -7.5 Tampa -13 At 4oclock look for the wins to continue with Over Phily/Dallas 48.5 Phily +10 I'll take Oakland +11 for the longshot Good luck to all go pats
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Posted by doobiebrother
5 years ago

6 Eagles +10 NFL Game Of The Year 4 Skins/Giants under 36 3 Bills/Browns under 37 3 Jags/Steelers under 35 3 Jets/Pats under 41 2 Bills +5.5
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Posted by JHBuff25
5 years ago

Redskins!?! REDSKINS??? What are you people smoking? Sure, Eli is less than consistent but Wash can't score. Chicago threw away last week's game all on their own. Wash just happened to be there to pick it up. Also, unless you're talking hockey or baseball 8points is not impressive. It's one TD or 4 buckets. As a nobody QB it's far easier to step off the bench and take over the game. With a week of anticipation sh!++ing bricks is probably the best way to describe the mood of young whatshishame.
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Posted by Dog68
5 years ago

ENTIRE NFL CARD FREE @ WWW.VEGASSPORTSEDGE.COM THEY LIKE THE PATS TODAY IN A BLOW-OUT...SNOW-OUT THEY LIKE T BAY.....WHO DOESN'T? THEY LIKE ST. LOUIS AS A "BIG" DOG GO TO THEIR SITE, COOL TALKING SITE PAL GUY.
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Posted by heinmanIam
5 years ago

p.s. eli manning is worse than putting money on a roulette wheel....pss.....apparently the Giants dont like playing in the Meadowlands anymore......at least thats what their Home/Visitor stats would show. Dallas /Philly- 10.5 that might be worth a closer look.....nfc east game.....nothing more Philly would like to do then embarrass Cowboys on their own field. 10.5 in a division rivalry. I dont like McBlabb and think he is well past his prime....but....if Philly cant get pumped for this game, what will. If they roll over.....I will definitely take NO and Buff in the following weeks....two teams that might have playoff contention pending this weekend GL all GL all
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Posted by heinmanIam
5 years ago

Stetson.....bypass the hate mail.....it's not worth the effort. One dog few expected and barked +300.....SF .....Houston....both cash dogs for me. This is definitely strange time of year.....which teams give a s**t which ones dont..... Unless Shula and 72' dolphins are subsidizing/greasing Miami's players for a win....Balt should handle them no problem....that is a team which will not give up and certainly dont want to be the laughing stock of the NFL by losing to the wahoo's, dolphins, the mammal one, whatever.....there will probably be more Balt fans at proplayer for a little winter vacation than dolphin fans. Crappy weather in Pitt? Really? no not Heintz field they just resodded. Pitts luck is going to run out on their home field and Jax is the perfect matchup to do it. IF Pitt wins it will be by a field goal.....I like +3.5 but think Jax will show everyone what an average team Steelers really are. Badkabot...if you are a diehard chiefs fan, they playing at arrowhead, and believe golf backswing has taken precedence over football....man....how can I not take Titans! Bill/Brown- the Jets found a way to lose that game with Cleve.....have to agree....other than utter beating by NE.....Bills have lost some very close games....Two come to mind that should have definitely been W's.....Miracle win by Dallas.....Miracle FG Denver.....This is a game that I feel Bills could easily win.....let alone getting 5 1/2 GIants....wont touch it...backup QB looked very impressive....Team has had a nice rest...NFC EAST....low score close game....unless Dallas is involved.
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Posted by badkabot
5 years ago

at least the titans had hearts to rip out! our star rb has been seen leaving the games in the 3rd qtr!
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Posted by badkabot
5 years ago

gameface u serious?? we are down to our 4th string rb tomm and our run defense is 25th in the nfl, ...we havn't even discussed the fact u have to score to a. win b. cover a bet, im from kc and die hard chiefs fan and am telling u to lay off the chiefs, we are a team that has packed in our bags!
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Posted by michaelfuse
5 years ago

the rams WILL cover.
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Posted by Thekidmc11
5 years ago

Yea Capone, I really like the Steelers to bounce back this week and beat the Jags by at least a TD. I also like the Bills to win that game against the Browns, and the Redskins to win as well.
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Posted by CharlieMai
5 years ago

i meant 23-13 (San Fran), yeah i smell a upset
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Posted by CharlieMai
5 years ago

Best Bet this week 23-13 (Cincy) 23-21 (Philly) 28-24 (Buffalo) 20-10 (NY giants) 13-9 (Ravens) 35-21 (Jax) 70-3 (New England Pats) 35-3 (Tampa Bay) 38-3 (Green Bay) 28-10 (Indy) 42-21 (Seattle) 38-12 (Minn Vikings) 12-0
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Posted by expertcapone
5 years ago

Bet of the Week: Steelers -3.5 Pittsburgh will win this game and cover the spread. The weather conditions are once again not going to be good in Pittsburgh. They are use to playing in these conditons by now. The jags on the other hand are definantly not use to playing in snow or cold weather. Steelers will bounce back after losing to New England. They are better than how they looked in their last game. This is an easy one guys...go with Pitt and make money
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Posted by GameFace71
5 years ago

My underdog plays are Chiefs las game at home should play well Titans had their hearts ripped out last week being up 17-3 in the 4th and lose in OT!
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Posted by cardnut29
5 years ago

I like 2 of these picks. Bills & Jags. Cleveland wins by a FG, Jags hand Pittsburgh their first home loss, and the Giants D is licking its chops on a weak O-line and a second string QB.
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Posted by Realistic_101
5 years ago

7 pt teaser folks... Jags (+10.5), Cincy (-1.5), Minny (-3), and Dallas (-3)...any thoughts?
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Posted by Shocker23
5 years ago

Picks for the weekend! Write these down Browns- Look for Evans to have his normal December but not enough. Lewis has a big game! Browns 27-17 Jaguars- Still underrated. They cover and win 24-14 Staying away from Giants and Skins. Leaning G-Men
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Posted by buckgallant
5 years ago

I have to say I like these picks. The Bills I don't like so much. I think that Cleveland will be them with the passing game and be very efficient with Jamal Lewis. I take the Browns 31-21. Jacksonville can play with anyone. Garrard just can't make a mistake and with a 1-2 punch in Taylor and Jones-Drew they can beat down the Steelers D and take this one late in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville 27-24 The Giants are the worst team in the league with a record better than .500. Write that down. If the Skins control the ball and let Eli and the Giants make mistakes/ take stupid penalties and let Coughlin make stupid coaching decisions the skins will not only cover the spread but win. Redskins 24-21
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Top Response

Posted by Dog68
5 years ago

"ENTIRE NFL CARD FREE @ WWW.VEGASSPORTSEDGE.COM THEY LIKE THE PATS TODAY IN A BLOW-OUT...SNOW-OUT THEY LIKE T BAY.....WHO DOESN'T? THEY LIKE ST. LOUIS AS A "BIG" DOG GO TO THEIR SITE, COOL TALKING SITE PAL GUY."