Boxing fans have been anxiously waiting since August for this Saturday night’s WBC welterweight title bout between Ricky Hatton and Floyd Mayweather Jr. Bettors have had almost five months to decide who they like most.
Oddsmakers list the champion, Mayweather, as a -260 favorite as of Thursday. But this isn’t where the line started and it certainly isn’t where it will end. Oddsmakers are expecting the majority of this fight’s handle to come in during the few hours before the fight.
Here’s a look at where the odds have been and how the betting public reacted to them.
Monday, July 30, 2007
After the fight was officially announced on July 27, linemakers look at both fighters’ most recent performances as a starting point for setting odds.
While Hatton’s fourth-round knockout of Jose Luis Castillo in June was impressive, Mayweather’s sheer boxing talent and decision over Oscar De La Hoya in May sways oddsmakers to set him as a big -350 favorite with the round total set at 11 ½.
Within 24 hours of posting the opening line, bettors hammered Hatton and the under, driving Mayweather’s number down to -325 and forced books to adjust the price on the over from -275 to -225.
Friday, Oct. 5, 2007
The numbers for this fight stayed relatively steady until the fall. That’s when Mayweather dropped again, this time to -295 and later that month to -285.
This move coincidently corresponded with Mayweather’s appearance on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars. While he insisted the competition was not a distraction from his upcoming fight, perhaps sports gamblers would have rather seen the fight favorite working hard in the gym rather than practicing his foxtrot.
During the show’s taping, Mayweather was on a 12-hour-a-day training schedule. He flew from Las Vegas to Los Angeles, staying for the show from Sunday to Tuesday.
When asked why he would put himself through such a hectic pace before one of the biggest fights of his career, the always-brash six-time champion simply replied, “It's just smart business.”
Friday, Nov. 9, 2007
Since this date the number on Mayweather has fallen from -285 to as low as -225 (on Nov. 23). The odds eventually make their way back up to their current standing of -260. Oddsmakers are now getting good two-way money on the fight.
One of the reasons for this drastic line movement could have been the debut of HBO’s Mayweather/Hatton 24/7, a reality series about both fighters’ preparation for this weekend’s title bout. It debuted on Nov. 18, a day in which the line dropped by 25 cents from -265 to -240.
The show does a great job of projecting a close and heated battle between two very different characters. Mayweather is the outspoken, larger-than-life villain, while Hatton is the hard-nosed, common man from England.
“I'd say their efforts have easily doubled interest and betting volume on this bout,” boxing linesmaker Joey Oddessa says of HBO’s promotion. “The series makes the bout appealing to even the most casual fans, who are always eager to wager their money in hopes of a satisfying double payday. The heal going down and cashing a ticket.”
What to expect by Saturday
Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks expect to get a lot of late action on Hatton before the line closes Saturday night.
With the fight taking place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, British fight fans are making the pilgrimage to Vegas and bringing their pocketbooks with them. The passionate Hatton backers should move the line again before the bell rings.
Oddessa wouldn’t be shocked if the odds on Mayweather dropped below -200 in some Las Vegas books, but would expect any smart bettor to grab the champion at a discount price as soon as it did.
“Anyone looking to bet Mayweather may be better served waiting until Saturday to pull the trigger,” suggest Oddessa.