Everything looks wonky in the Mountain West Conference, with the Air Force Falcons and Wyoming Cowboys sitting atop the conference standings at 2-0.
Air Force had recorded three straight losing seasons under former head coach Fisher DeBerry, but based on last Saturday’s 20-12 win as 7-point underdogs in Salt Lake City, casual bettors might wonder if there’s a power shift underway in the Mountain West.
After all, hadn’t new man Troy Calhoun promised to spice up the Falcons’ triple-option with more passing? Isn’t it possible that Air Force has overcome its recruiting handicap through sheer strategy?
In a word, no.
Air Force toppled a limping Utah Utes squad with the same attack it always features in recent years: running, running and more running. The Falcons gained 334 yards on the ground compared to just 56 through the air against Utah. Add in Air Force’s opener against South Carolina State, when the Falcons rushed for 279 yards, and you’re looking at one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the nation … again.
“Zero. Zero,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told the Colorado Springs Gazette after the loss to the Falcons when asked if he saw huge differences in this year’s Air Force attack compared to previous seasons.
“Different formations, same stuff. They’re going to beat you with what they’ve always hung their hat on – the double- and triple-option. It’s just coming from different formations, but it’s the same attack.”
Don’t think TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson hasn’t noticed. He watched the tape of Air Force’s win over the Utes and said in the weekly MWC teleconference that Air Force is running the ball more than ever.
Which brings us to Thursday night’s game in Colorado Springs, in which TCU is an 8-point road favorite.
Air Force loyalists say there’s no better time to face the preseason MWC faves, with the Falcons coming off an upset win and the Horned Frogs fresh off a 21-point loss. Personally, I think that last week’s results give TCU betting value that wouldn’t have been imagined in the preseason.
After all, this is the same school that’s smoked Air Force by scores of 48-10 and 38-14 since joining the Mountain West in 2005.
The same TCU that is 23-4 straight up (SU) and 19-7 against the spread (ATS) since the start of 2005, compared to Air Force’s 10-15 SU and 10-14 ATS over the same span.
The same Horned Frogs who smoked a Big 12 opponent 27-0 to open the 2007 season while the Falcons took on a second-tier school.
The same small conference powerhouse that led the No. 7 Texas Longhorns, in Austin no less, for 44 minutes last Saturday before an unfortunate fourth quarter led to an uglier final score than the Frogs deserved.
The same overwhelming preseason conference favorites who started the season in the national rankings and who feel slighted that a single road loss to a powerhouse bumped them to the “others receiving votes” category.
The same defense that features Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, NFL-bound ends with something to prove after being handled by the Horns. Air Force quarterback Shaun Carney ran for 113 yards last week at Utah but might be running for his life this week against Blake and Ortiz.
TCU is a football school reacting to last week's loss the right way: the Frogs are ornery and grateful they only have to wait five days to lay a licking on an opponent.
There’s no power shift in the Mountain West – this is the week in which the conference order is restored. It starts on Thursday night.