Don’t pay attention to Week 2 results.
That’s the advice from one oddsmaker for any bettors contemplating the 38-point total for today’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos.
“I know I don’t look at that at all,” says Wynn Hotel and Casino oddsmaker John Avello referring to Denver’s 9-6 final in a game with an identical 38-point over/under on Sept. 17. “That was over two months ago.”
And Avello has good reason for his position, most significantly the fact the two teams were in much different places at that time of the season.
The Chiefs were playing their first game without quarterback Trent Green (out with a serious concussion) while the Broncos were trying to recover from a brutal loss to the St. Louis Rams in which they committed five turnovers. As a result, both coaches installed a conservative game plan and it showed as Denver escaped with the narrow win.
But Kansas City head coach Herm Edwards is expecting a different result this time around.
“I don’t think nine will be enough,” Edwards told the Kansas City Star.
For starters, the game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium where the Chiefs are a much different team. Kansas City is 4-1 in five games at home this season, averaging 26.6 points and playing over the total in three of those games.
Secondly, the Kansas City play-calling should also be different.
Green returned last week and looked comfortable in the pocket. After working the rust out early, he orchestrated a game-winning drive in the 17-13 win over the Oakland Raiders. Also returning is Green’s favorite target, Tony Gonzalez, who missed last week because of a sprained shoulder.
“He says it’s better,” Chiefs tight end Jason Dunn said of Gonzalez, the team’s leading receiver with 588 yards and three touchdowns. “He can definitely stand a lot of pain. When it comes to Thursday and the adrenaline is rushing and it’s the heat of the battle, I’m sure he’ll be all right.”
The Broncos are also a much different team than they were the last time they faced Kansas City. After scoring fewer than 15 points in their first six games, Denver has averaged 26.5 points a game over their last four, playing over in three of them. Meanwhile, their defense has struggled, giving up more than 25 points per game after allowing only 7.3 through the first six weeks.
“That always seems to be the case; when the offense is up, the defense suffers a bit,” says Avello. “Maybe it has something to do with the defense laying off knowing they don’t have to win the game themselves. Whatever it is, it always seems to happen.”
Still, the oddsmaker doesn’t anticipate adjusting the total of today’s big game.
“Thirty-seven points through to 41 points are pretty key numbers. It would take a lot to move that,” says Avello. “Besides, I like my number where it is right now.”
Oddsmakers opened the Broncos as 1-point faves. The line has since dropped to a pick ‘em at most books.
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