Kansas City (-1) at Miami
Why Chiefs cover: Kansas City averaging 32 points last three games establishing offensive identity. Chiefs tied for third in takeaways with 16. Damon Huard NFL’s second-rated passer and Larry Johnson rushed for 459 yards and scored six touchdowns past three weeks.
Why Dolphins cover: Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters out for Kansas City. Miami 5-1 when Ronnie Brown gets at least 20 carries. Dolphins have NFL’s fourth-ranked defense.
Total (40): Two teams combined 8-0-1 over last nine games.
Houston at Jacksonville (-10)
Why Texans cover: Texans 7-2 against the spread (ATS) against the Jaguars. Houston’s defense allowing average of 13 points and 234 yards past three games. Jacksonville multiple defensive injuries.
Why Jaguars cover: Houston’s third straight road game. Huge revenge for 27-7 embarrassment to Texans three weeks ago. David Garrard 6-0-1 ATS as Jaguars’ starting quarterback.
Total (37 ½): Knocked down from opening 39.
San Diego (-1) at Cincinnati
Why Chargers cover: Carson Palmer’s mechanics have been affected by his knee injury and he’s been sacked 23 times compared to 21 times last season. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 355 yards and scored six touchdowns last two games. Cincy has failed to reach 93 yards rushing five of last six.
Why Bengals cover: Chargers’ best defensive player, Shawne Merriman, suspended. Cincy’s vulnerable run defense improved holding opponents to one touchdown on the ground and 3.9 average compared to 4.6 rush average and seven rushing scores first four games. Chargers traveling west to east with early start time.
Total (48): Bengals have scored 20 or fewer points in half their games.
Cleveland at Atlanta (-9)
Why Browns cover: Warrick Dunn one 100-yard rushing effort past six games. Falcons 31st in pass defense and missing star pass rusher John Abraham. Cleveland deploying personnel better with Jeff Davidson replacing Maurice Carthon as offensive coordinator.
Why Falcons cover: Charlie Frye on pace to be sacked more times in a season than any Cleveland quarterback in team history. Michael Vick eight touchdown passes last three games after three touchdown throws first five games. Atlanta’s only home game in a four-week span and Cleveland’s lone dome appearance.
Total (42): Browns averaging 22.5 points past two games under Davidson’s aggressive play-calling compared to 14.6 points first six games with Carthon as offensive coordinator.
Baltimore (-7) at Tennessee
Why Ravens cover: Rank No. 3 in fewest points allowed. Steve McNair motivated not liking the way the Titans severed their relationship after 10 years. Titans rank last in defense and 28th in offense.
Why Titans cover: Ravens in flat spot with two-game division lead, an easy remaining schedule meeting only two teams with winning records. Baltimore 4-11 ATS last 15 away games. Back-door cover open with Baltimore allowing 28 second-half points last two weeks.
Total (37 ½): Titans have surrendered average of 202.8 yards rushing past six games.
Buffalo at Indianapolis (-12)
Why Bills cover: Even Anthony Thomas should be able to run on a defense allowing NFL-worst 5.3 per rush. Indy in letdown position after consecutive road victories against Denver and New England. Excellent special teams.
Why Colts cover: No Willis McGahee for Buffalo to exploit Indy’s last-ranked run defense. Peyton Manning vs. J.P. Losman is an obscene mismatch. Buffalo’s offense scored 50 points in four road games, 12.5 average.
Total (44 ½): Bills 2-6 under this season.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)
Why Saints cover: Let’s face it the 2-6 Steelers just aren’t very good. Ben Roethlisberger has league-high 14 interceptions. Drew Brees averaging three touchdown passes and 324 yards past three games.
Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh averaging 447 yards last four games. Saints 30th in rushing yards per carry at 3.3. Reggie Bush no rushing or receiving touchdowns.
Total (45 ½): Pittsburgh 13-0-1 over last 14 at home.
Washington at Philadelphia (-7)
Why Redskins cover: Eagles entered bye on three-game losing streak. Finally have healthy cornerbacks and momentum after dramatic last-second victory against Dallas. Offensive line playing better.
Why Eagles cover: Redskins’ 30th-rated pass defense allowed 16 touchdown passes with only two interceptions. Donovan McNabb most passing yards in the NFL. Brian Westbrook’s 5.2 highest average among top 30 running backs.
Total (42): Redskins giving up average of 25.8 points past five games.
Green Bay at Minnesota (-5)
Why Packers cover: Huge rivalry game with five of the past six regular-season meetings decided by three points each. Minnesota’s pedestrian offense has seven touchdowns in eight games with struggling wide receivers and 38-year-old Brad Johnson showing his age. Vikings 0-4 ATS as home favorite against Green Bay.
Why Vikings cover: Rank sixth in fewest yards allowed and seventh in fewest points given up. Brett Favre three touchdown passes and nine interceptions last five division games. Packers’ inexperienced guards and center could have problems against dominant Minnesota defensive tackles on carpet in loud dome.
Total (38 ½): Green Bay 17-4-1 over on artificial turf.
New York Jets at New England (-10 ½)
Why Jets cover: Been competitive in every game except loss to Jacksonville. Are 7-2 ATS last nine at New England. Wide receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery can make big plays as demonstrated in team’s first meeting and Patriots without Rodney Harrison.
Why Patriots cover: Jets can’t stop run or rush the passer. New England’s held Jets to 68 rushing yards or less five of last six. Jets’ 4-4 record worse that it looks with victories against teams with 9-23 combined record.
Total (38): Jets went under first time this season in 20-13 loss to Cleveland after official ruled against them on what looked to be a late touchdown catch.
San Francisco at Detroit (-6)
Why 49ers cover: Lions missing three defensive line starters, including star tackle Shaun Rogers. Lions 0-1 lone time favored this season. San Francisco defense coming off best game holding Vikings to a field goal.
Why Lions cover: Roy Williams surpassed 135 receiving yards in four games while no other NFL receiver has reached 135 yards more than once. 49ers 0-3 straight-up (SU) on the road, outscored, 116-37. Jon Kitna averaging 285 yards passing last six games operating against 49ers defense giving up NFL-worst 29.8 points a game.
Total (46): Teams are combined 11-5 over this season.
Denver (-9 ½) at Oakland
Why Broncos cover: Mike Shanahan detests his former team going 18-5 SU, 15-7-1 ATS against them. Denver No. 1 in scoring defense holding teams to 12.3 points, while Raiders last in offense averaging 11.5 points. Oakland failed to cover 10 of last 15 getting points.
Why Raiders cover: Raiders ninth in defense and second in pass defense. Denver’s defense banged up with six listed as questionable, along with wide receiver Rod Smith and running back Tatum Bell. Broncos allowed 54 points and 936 yards last two weeks against Colts and Steelers.
Total (33 ½): Down from opening 37 at a few books before Raiders were shut out Monday night.
St. Louis at Seattle (-3 ½)
Why Rams cover: Marc Bugler on pace for 4,600 yards passing, second-highest total in Rams history, and has thrown only one interception. Until shutting out the Raiders’ feeble offense Monday, the Seahawks were giving up average of 32.2 points previous five games. Rams just nine turnovers this season.
Why Seahawks cover: Seattle 11-3 (78 percent) as home favorite. Rams no interceptions last four games. Rams 28th in run defense surrendering 183 yards to LaDainian Tomlinson and 172 to Larry Johnson last two weeks.
Total (43 ½): Six of last nine in series gone under.
Dallas (-6 ½) at Arizona
Why Cowboys cover: Dispirited Cardinals dropped seven in a row. Arizona’s 25th-rated defense can’t cover Terrell Owens. Despite 4-4 record, Dallas has outscored its opponents by same margin as undefeated Colts.
Why Cardinals cover: Cowboys’ third straight road game and will host Indianapolis next Sunday. Get Larry Fitzgerald back. Two weeks to prepare.
Total (43): Cowboys averaging 27 points in Tony Romo’s two starts.
Chicago at New York Giants (-1)
Why Bears cover: First time all season Bears underdogs. Giants cluster injury problem in defensive line with Michael Strahan out and Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck doubtful. Robbie Gould 22-for-22 in field goals and has eight touchbacks.
Why Giants cover: Bears averaging a pedestrian 3.4 yards per rush. Giants 10-4 (71 percent) ATS as home favorite. Chicago’s surrendered 100-yard rushers past two weeks (Frank Gore and Ronnie Brown).
Total (37): Bears 9-1-1 over last 11 games.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-9 ½)
Why Buccaneers cover: Panthers down at linebacker without Dan Morgan. Carolina’s average win margin 3.7 points. Panthers 7-18-1 (28 percent) ATS as home favorite.
Why Panthers cover: Take away a controversial roughing the passer penalty against the Bengals that set up the winning score and Matt Bryant’s 62-yard field goal and Tampa Bay is 0-8. Cadillac Williams averaged less than three yards rushing five of eight games. Tampa Bay no touchdowns on offense in half its games.
Total (37): Buccaneers have scored only one first-quarter offensive touchdown.
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