Everyone would like to see a fairy tale ending to the New Orleans Saints' long and horrific road back to the Superdome.
Everyone, that is, except for bettors.
Sportsbooks are reporting one-sided action on the Atlanta Falcons for the New Orleans homecoming, forcing them to move Monday night’s line from Atlanta –3 to – 4 at most books and - 4 1/2 at a number of others.
Oddsmakers felt solid about setting the line at a field goal, but have seen a rush of Atlanta action roll in since the game hit the board last Monday morning.
“We put the line up at three and saw a lot of big money come in fast,” says Shane Catford of betCRIS.com. “I’d have to say we have a 3-1 ratio of bettors taking the Falcons.”
Most online books are reporting the same one-sided action, with both public and professional bettors banking on the Falcons.
“The smart money came betting at -3 and the public is driving the line further up,” say bookmakers at Bodog.com. “For a game to move off such an important number like three in the NFL, there has to be a huge amount of money. Right now, it looks like about 90 percent of betting action is on the Falcons.”
Oddsmakers are surprised by the one-sided handle, but expect that public bettors will even out the money before game time. The biggest reason they expect a late push on New Orleans is because of the amount of exposure this Monday night game is getting. ESPN is covering it live from the ‘Big Easy’ all day leading up to the 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“I expect to see (the action) balance,” says Catford. “I couldn’t see it going to -5 or -5 1/2, but dropping back to –4. There is a lot of appeal with this game, a lot of big names like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. Some big name talent for bettors to jump on New Orleans.”
The importance of this game is not lost on the players.
Monday’s contest has seen 500 media credentials issued and will have a Super Bowl feel with bands like U2 and Green Day performing in a pregame show. Superdome officials have sold out the 68,000 season tickets available for the remainder of the season, expecting Monday’s game to be a big step forward in the rehabilitation of the city.
“The most important thing is our focus and preparation to the third game of the season,” Saints coach Sean Payton told reporters. “Obviously there's uniqueness in this game, being it's the first game back in this city for quite a while. There's not just a uniqueness, but an excitement being that both teams are 2-0.”
Books have had a hard time pinning down these teams' spread value with all the hoopla surrounding the contest, but have factored the 2-0 records into Monday’s line.
“I don't think it is overrated,” Catford says of the Saints' undefeated record. “But they will have a tough time stopping the Falcons running game with their defense. That could be one of the bigger issues for New Orleans in this game.”
Atlanta has the top rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 6.1 yards per carry for an amazing 279 yards per game. The Falcons one-two punch of Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn will be the focus of the New Orleans defense on Monday night.
The Saints defense will have an edge against the Falcons attack, with the sold-out crowd expecting to blow the roof off the $180 million renovated Superdome.
“We give these people something to cheer about for three hours," running back Deuce McAllister told reporters. "(It's) something to think about instead of wondering if they're going to continue to haggle with their insurance people or have to continue to work on their home."
Books have set Monday's total at 44.
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