Four hundred and forty eight career starts doesn’t carry much weight at the books these days.
That’s how many David Wells had under his belt when the Boston Red Sox placed him on the 15-day DL due to a reoccurring knee problem. He was slated to start No. 449 when the Seattle Mariners roll into Beantown Monday afternoon, but books are keeping the odds pretty much the same as if he were on the hill.
Lenny DiNardo, his replacement, makes career start No. 2 against the M’s.
“I don't believe you'll see a significant drop in the Red Sox price,” says Belmont.com oddsmaker Peter Childs. “Wells had been slated to be the Red Sox fifth starter, the last man in their rotation. It’s not like DiNardo is stepping in for Curt Schilling or Josh Beckett.”
Although the aging Wells and his bloated ERA don’t look any better than a minor league call up on paper, there’s always added risk in backing a greenhorn. Nerves can be much more of a factor and the kind of pitches that go for strikes in Triple A can often end up in the stands in the bigs.
But Boston bettors can take some comfort in the fact that DiNardo won’t be looking to dominate the Mariners. The 26-year-old lefty is more of a finesse hurler, utilizing a change up and pitches of different velocities to keep batters on their toes.
That held Baltimore to one earned run through seven innings when he made his lone start Sept. 2 last year. He’s also compiled 3.38 ERA through two relief appearances this season.
“It’s good that he’s more than just a fastball pitcher,” says Covers Expert Tom Stryker. “Good hitters can time a fastball. But if you’ve got a pitcher that can keep hitters off balance with off-speed pitches, that’s definitely going to work in his favor.”
One draw back of DiNardo’s style is its inefficiency. He tossed 91 pitches against the Orioles last September and is averaging 16.3 pitches per inning in his two appearances this year. Couple that with the fact that he’s more used to relief duty than starting and the bullpen takes on much greater importance in this game.
“That’s a big concern here,” notes Stryker. “Boston’s bullpen hasn’t been good for a few years now.”
It’s been decent this season with it’s 3.81 ERA ranking 13th in the majors. However, two of Boston’s last three losses occurred when the starter was pulled after four innings while the first man to take the hill lasted at least seven innings in three of the last four wins.
With DiNardo no longer available out of the pen the Sox have called up righty Jermaine Van Buren to fill the gap. He was the Chicago Cubs’ Triple A Pitcher of the Year last year, but continues to struggle with control problems and was demoted back to the minors in March.
"I thought I was going all right," Van Buren told the Boston Globe. "But the real picture was I wasn't pitching as well as I could so I think that was a good lesson for me to go down and focus on what I really needed to do."
Books have set the Red Sox as -144 home favorites for Monday's game. The run total opened at 10 1/2.
Share your thoughts on this article in the Covers posting forum.