Padres primed for a letdown?

On the surface, it seems like the San Diego Padres would be a good bet to go ‘over’ their regular season over/under win total of 77 ½.

This is a team, after all, which won the weak National League West Division last year going 82-80. They have a great No. 1 pitcher, Jake Peavy, a top closer, Trevor Hoffman, improved outfield defense and more depth at catcher.

Just don’t be shocked if the Padres completely collapse this season. I like the Padres to finish under 78 ½ wins, which is their current over/under number at Olympic sportsbook. Several other books list the Padres’ over/under at 77 ½.

The Padres are an old team whose key players are highly susceptible to injuries. Their hitters are hindered playing at Petco Park, perhaps the worst hitting park in the majors. Except for Peavy, their starting pitchers aren’t good enough to take advantage.

Once you get past Peavy and promising Chris Young, the Padres’ starting staff is composed of 39-year-old Woody Williams, Shawn Estes and Chan Ho Park. Those are three very bad pitchers, and Peavy and Young each were hindered by shoulder problems last year.

Some may argue Peavy could be the best pitcher in the National League this season, but his fragility makes him vulnerable. If Peavy has injuries problems, the Padres have the worst starting staff in the National League West. They may already own it even with Peavy.

Hoffman, at 38, also is a high injury risk. He could be this year’s Troy Percival.

As far as San Diego’s offense, where is the power going to come from? The corners are manned by 34-year-old Ryan Klesko, who has back problems and is psyched out by Petco, and a washed-up 38-year-old Vinny Castilla.

The starting outfield consists of Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron and Brian Giles. None is under 33. Roberts relies on speed, but has hamstring problems. Cameron can’t hit and that isn’t going to change playing at Petco. The 35-year-old Giles has averaged a meager 14 home runs per season over the past four years.

The catchers are 37-year-old Mike Piazza, who can’t throw, and 35-year-old Doug Mirabelli, who can’t hit.

The middle infield is Khalil Greene at shortstop and either rookie Josh Barfield or Mark Bellhorn at second base, both of whom are having excellent spring trainings so far.

Greene is promising, but has yet to play more than 139 games in a season. He’s missed time the past two years with a broken toe and broken finger.

Barfield also has potential, but it would be surprising if second base turns out to be an area of strength for the Padres.

One of the keys in winning an over/under regular season win total wager is gauging how much upside a team has.

Aside from their middle infield – and that’s a huge if – the Padres have no upside. Yeah, Peavy could win the Cy Young Award, but the chances are just as likely he gets hurt with his awkward delivery. Shoulder pain, missed starts and strange rib fractures don’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence in his health.

The Padres have only the third-best odds of winning the NL West, according to current numbers at Pinnacle sportsbook. Pinnacle lists the Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite at +166 followed by the San Francisco Giants at 2-1.

The Padres’ division odds are slightly under 4-1. The Arizona Diamondbacks are next at slightly more than 7-1 with the Colorado Rockies rounding out the division at 12-1.

Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies appear improved. The Giants, like the Padres, are an aging team but they have veteran named Barry Bonds, Jason Schmidt and Moises Alou and they have several outstanding young pitchers.

The Dodgers have the best pitching depth in the division and added several free agent stars, including Rafael Furcal and Nomar Garciaparra.

And with the Pittsburgh Pirates looking better, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Padres contend with the Florida Marlins for worst record in the National League.

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