Athletics +135 to beat the Mariners
Ryan Franklin pitched a gem in his last outing to beat Pedro Martinez and the Mets as +162 dogs, but that was a one-off. The rest of Franklin’s season has been mediocre at best and certainly not deserving of the Capitol Hill price tag on this one – especially against an Oakland club that is starting to feel the buzz of winning. Kirk Saarloos, the A’s No. 5 arm, doesn’t get much credit for the work he does as a contact hitter, but he’s managed to earn himself a permanent spot in the rotation. He’s pitching with improved confidence and he’s won two of his last three outings – including a notable win over the Phillies in his last start. With a good defense behind him, and a solid bullpen, Oakland is the perfect place for a pitcher like Saarloos to find some success.
Braves +125 to beat the Marlins
I like Dontrelle Willis, but I love home dogs. The Atlanta Braves are 21-11 when they have their fans chopping and chanting at Turner Field and they’ve already crushed the Marlins by a total score of 13-0 in the first two games of this series. Willis has been Cy Young-worthy this year, but he has an 8.91 ERA in his last two trips to Atlanta. The Braves’ will bring out there surprising young spot starter Jorge Sosa for his third start of the year. So far, he’s been stellar with a 2.70 ERA and a 2-0 record at a time when the Braves desperately need help on the pitching staff. The clubhouse loves this guy and they’ll be trying to get him another win.
Orioles and Blue Jays to play under eight runs
This is a two-part problem. The first part is easy: Roy Halladay will dominate as he does just about every time he takes the mound. The good doctor is not just back to his 2003 Cy Young form; he’s better. It doesn’t matter that the O’s touched him up in two meetings this season; Halladay’s improved his focus and concentration has translated into a mere six runs allowed over his last 55 2-3 innings and even Baltimore’s big bats won’t change that.
The second part of the problem is a little more difficult. Sidney Ponson has shown the ability to dominate, but he’s also got propensity to fall apart on the mound. You never really know what you’re going to get from Ponson and although his numbers aren’t assuring, he traditionally improves as the season wears on. In his last trip to Toronto, Ponson pitched a complete game and allowed just five hits and one run.
Devil Rays and Yankees to play over 10 ½ runs
Everybody’s waiting for the turning point when we can say, “finally, the real Yankees have arrived.” It looked like a 20-run explosion against Tampa Bay two days ago could have been the spark to set the batter’s box ablaze in the Bronx, but no. With Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada out of the lineup, the Yankees managed only six hits and three runs in a painful loss as –240 faves. So why should we believe the bats will be cracking in this one? Tampa Bay probably won’t have too much success against Yankee starter Chien-Ming Wang, whose got an over/under ratio of 1-7. The question is, will Tampa’s Mark Hendrickson be able to hold his ground? His history at Yankee Stadium implies that he might be in trouble. In two appearances in New York, Hendrickson has lost twice and given up enough runs to jack up his ERA of 10.00. He's been inconsistent enough this season to imply that it might happen again.
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