Louisville (4) vs. Illinois (1)
When: Saturday April 2, 3:05 p.m. EST
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO
Odds: Louisville –2 ½, 147 1/2
Louisville (33-4 SU, 18-15-1 ATS, 18-16 O/U)
Louisville earned a 93-85 win over West Virginia Saturday night and preserved its backers units as an 8-point chalk, but the way the Cardinals’ perimeter defense buckled against the Mountaineers suggests they could be in trouble when they face Illinois’ backcourt in the Final Four.
WVU dropped a payload of treys on the Cardinals in the first 20 minutes of the Albuquerque Regional Final to open up a 40-27 lead by halftime. Louisville abandoned its zone in the second to press and trap the Mountaineers, which effectively took WVU out of its offensive rhythm. By getting turnovers, the Cardinals were able to claw their way back and force overtime where they easily put the Mountaineers down.
It was a gutsy win for Louisville and will have the Cards brimming with confidence in their Final Four matchup. But their backers perhaps shouldn’t be so confident after watching the Mountaineers pour in nearly 68 percent of their shots.
The Illini sport one of the best backcourts in the nation in Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head. The three guards average a combined 42.7 points per game and figure to have a field day with the Cardinals if they aren’t able to shore up the perimeter.
Early lines have Louisville as a 2 ½-point underdog, but if its to make any use of those points the team’s backers had better hope that the Cardinals leave the zone in Albuquerque and pressure the Illini from the outset.
Illinois (36-1 SU, 15-13-2 ATS, 11-18 O/U)
Illinois dropped the cash for the first time in the tourney when it slipped by Arizona 90-89 in the Chicago Regional Final as 5-point favorites, but the shaky win over the Wildcats has prompted oddsmakers to make the Illini slight 2 ½-points in their Final Four tilt with Louisville. Illinois backers haven’t had it that easy since their team was listed as a PICK against Michigan State back in early February, a game it won 81-68.
After leading the Wildcats for most of the contest, the Illini submitted an 18-6 run to Arizona in the latter half of the second and found themselves down by 15 with just four minutes remaining. But Illinois refused to die. The team took advantage of sloppy play by the Wildcats to get turnovers and were able to close the gap thanks to some clutch 3-point shooting by Head and Williams. The Wildcats put up a fight in the extra fame, but Illinois was able to hang on for the win by smothering them on their final possession.
Although they were able to hold Salim Stoudamire to nine points on 2-of-13 shooting, it was an unusually shoddy defensive performance for the Illini. Illinois allowed its opponents to shoot just over 41 percent through the season, but the Wildcats made good on 52.5 percent of its field goal attempts including 7-of-18 treys.
The Illini will have to tighten things up in that area against Louisville. The Cardinals averaged 80.8 points per game through the season on 47 percent shooting, the sixth-best offensive output in the nation.
The Illini do, however, have a weapon that Louisville may not have an answer for. Forward James Augustine averaged 17 points in the first two games of the tourney. He was held to four points on Saturday with 6-10, 235 lbs. Channing Frye guarding him, but neither Juan Palacios (6-8 245 lbs.) nor Francisco Garcia (6-7, 190 lbs.) possess the height or girth to slow the Illini’s big man.
Covers.com prediction: Illinois 79, Louisville 70
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