USA Today Sports

NFL line watch: Which way will the Super Bowl odds move?

Things might settle down as bettors who favor blue-chip teams may determine that all things being equal, throwing money down on the best quarterback in the Super Bowl only makes sense.

Or, those in the know might check the long-range New Jersey weather forecast, see that it calls for temperatures in single-digits and winds gusting up to 40 mph and decide that Peyton Manning’s record in the cold isn’t so hot, and that it’s prudent to bet on Seattle’s defense.

All we know right now about the Denver-Seattle Super Bowl is what we don’t know, and right now those that don’t know include the oddsmakers and sportsbooks.

Some Las Vegas books opened with the game as a pick ‘em, while others had made the Broncos 1.5-point favorites. At offshore sites, which can and do move the Vegas boards, there were similar hour-to-hour adjustments. By early Monday morning the offshore lines ran from Denver -3 to Denver +2.

Denver’s passing game is dependent on decent weather, and Seahawks fans can take some comfort in the extended forecast (which isn’t worth much at this point).

AccuWeather for Feb. 2 in Northern New Jersey is calling for a high of 35 and low of 19 degrees, with a mix of snow and rain. Rain at those temps often translates into ice. And in that type of weather, Manning has often played like a wildebeest with a sprained ankle.

So expect the line to move, at least in the next few days, as early money settles in on one team or another. And that will create shopping opportunities for those with access to Vegas books or those of us with multiple offshore accounts.

Numbers folks have set the total for 47.5, which is close to the average number of points scored in an NFL game – figuring that they might as well split the difference between a terrific offensive team with weapons everywhere, and perhaps the best defensive team to make it to the Super Bowl since 2006, when the James Harrison/Troy Polamalu Steelers took down the Seahawks.

The Super Bowl brings out tons of square money, and squares love the Over. But Denver games have gone Under five straight times, and Under players have cashed on the Seahawks seven consecutive games. If the wind is blowing in the swampland of Northern New Jersey on Feb. 2, the smart money will be on yet another Under.

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Posted by SlinginDope
5 months ago

Pittsburgh's star studded defense led by James Harrison and Troy Polamalu was in 2008. Harrison was a special teamer for Super Bowl XL.
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Posted by yankeesparlayer
6 months ago

Weather whatever bottom line I don't see anything but number 18 holding Lombardi trophy right in his brothers home..
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Posted by unowon
6 months ago

Denver 34 Seattle 28
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Posted by budwiser
6 months ago

Excellent report. As I said in the other article, wait for the weather. It could be a crisp sunny day no wind, or it could be blowing. Peyton's arm strength is not what it used to be-he throws ducks more than he ever has. His accuracy is still as good as ever, and of course he has more experience now. But no sensible wager can be made without the weather report. If it's a mess, wind/rain/snow, expect a lot of Lynch, and what's Manning going to do against a tough run defense in Seattle and high winds. Good luck.
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Posted by tomnolan
6 months ago

SEATTLE 21 BRONCOS 17
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Posted by Fieldsetters
6 months ago

Seattle 27 Denver 26
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Posted by BIGVIN46
6 months ago

i personally the Super Bowl should be played at the homefield of the team with the best record.If a tie a coin toss.It works in BB why not give the home team fans a real chance to participate. so this guy gets a ticket to the Super bowl but he is all the way up in the rafters and with his binocs he sees that much closer to field level on the 50 yd line there is an empty seat,he says to himself after the half if ythat seat is still available i'm going down to it.Well after the show it is still open so he runs down to it.He sees an older fan sitting next to the open seat and he ask " is this seat still available"he responded that it was and that it had been the ticket he had purchased for his devoted wife.He than volunteered that his wife had died .So the newcomer asked "didn't you have a close relative like a son a daughter ,nephew or neice brother or sister that you could have given the ticket to.He responded "NO THEY ARE ALL AT HER FUNERAL" I KNOW ITS AN OLDIE BUT THAN AGAIN SO AM I VINNY F
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Posted by Blazayblah
6 months ago

This venue is BS. The Super Bowl should be a matchup where both teams can use their attributes to the best of there ability. I'm still curious as to how someone convinced the NFL the Meadowlands was legit.
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Posted by budhatouch
6 months ago

BOOHOO! What if the venue was Tampa, or Miami? How can you not count out flash floods or a thunderstorm? How about the Dallas superbowl few years ago when it was cold as hell and it snowed the day before the game? The venue is moot. If you want to be the best you should be able to overcome weather. Especially teams from Denver and Seattle! We are not talking about San Diego or the Saints here.
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Posted by Bruce7277
6 months ago

Denver with the best offense and Seattle with the best defense. The weather report say's it is going to be cold and windy.,.. which favor's a good ground game and a good defense. My wager is going to be Seattle to the under 48.
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Top Response

Posted by Fieldsetters
6 months ago

"Seattle 27 Denver 26"