USA Today Sports

Numbers game: Cappers share best stats for betting basketball

There are many ways to wager on basketball. Some look at situational spots while others ride hot or cold teams. The one thing that is common among those practices is paying attention to the stats and trends.

We asked our Covers Experts what numbers they pay attention to and which stats provide the best betting info. Whether you’re wagering on the NBA or the college kids, these stats are the ones that matter most to basketball bettors.

Sean Murphy – “In college basketball, I put a lot of weight in free-throw percentage (made of course). Teams that hit their free throws are able to close out games and cover spreads - plain and simple. There's a wide disparity between good and bad free-throw shooting teams at the college level, and ATS records tend to correlate.”

Art Aronson – “Objects in motion tend to stay in motion, so find a motivated team by checking the results of its last five games. Every good team in the league has at least one decent streak to ride. Never hurts to check out how has team has done in the last few weeks.”

Doc’s Sports – “When handicapping college basketball, we always look at the shooting percentage of road teams we are thinking of using as a selection. Generally, for a road team to have success, they need to shoot the ball well from the perimeter. Road teams can’t depend on the refs for help since generally the home team will shoot more free throws than the visitor. Therefore it is imperative that they make shots from long range. If a road team shoots less than 33 percent from the 3-point line, we will not use them as a selection.”

Marc Lawrence – “What I look for a lot are games involving teams with disparate results in their last game. The combination of 'Never is a team as good as they look in their best win, nor as bad as they appear in their worst loss', is often times cemented with a major line adjustment by the linesmakers. This creates value, and there is nothing better than value with a hungry team.”

Bryan Power –
“For me, the stat I look at in NBA Handicapping is YTD (Year to Date) point differential. I find it to be a far better predictor of future performance than simply looking at a team's win/loss record.

Jesse Schule – “For college hoops, I would be careful in putting too much stock in a team's record versus ranked opponents. The rankings change week to week, there are plenty of tough teams that are not ranked in the Top 25.

Which basketball stats are your go-to numbers when handicapping hoops? Share in the comment box below.

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Posted by macorisano
1 year ago

When the linemakers set the numbers, they based in the complete game, then I discovered a crack in the quarters. As good as a team is, at least lose 1 quater, and as bad as is, at least win 1 quater. Then I go to http://www.teamrankings.com/ and breakdown the game by quater a see which is the Average 1st Quarter Margin , Average 2nd Quarter Margin , Average 3rd Quarter Margin , Average 4th Quarter Margin, and made my pick based in this numbers.
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Posted by saksfam
1 year ago

In 2014 70% of NCAA Games with a total of 120-129 plays under nice picks so far. Yesterday 2-0
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Posted by basesloaded101
1 year ago

espn got it bro just google nba point differentials and espn has it
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Posted by darmac
1 year ago

NBA days rest is HUGE for totals.
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Posted by semaper
1 year ago

Sorry, I mean YTD point differential stats
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Posted by semaper
1 year ago

Where can I find YTD stats?
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Top Response

Posted by semaper
1 year ago

"Sorry, I mean YTD point differential stats"