Double-digit college football bowl favorites 8-4 ATS since 2011
There is a bounty of double-digit spreads on the college football board this bowl season. Seven, actually, which is the most double-digit bowl spreads since 2008, when six teams were giving double digits during bowl season.
It would seem that, according to the oddsmakers, the powers that be behind these bowl games failed at their attempts to make for the most intriguing matchup available. But hey, that’s why we have pointspreads.
Looking back over the past 11 years (2003-2013), there have been 45 teams tabbed as double-digit bowl favorites, with those hefty faves going just 22-23 ATS in that span. However, big bowl chalk has come through for backers in recent years, posting an 8-4 ATS record since 2011.
Size matters when it comes to betting bowl favorites. Double-digit faves between 18 and 12 points are 11-6 ATS since 2003. At the top of the chalk is Oklahoma State, which was an 18-point favorite against Purdue in the Heart of Dallas Bowl on New Year’s Day 2013, winning easily 51-14.
This bowl season, the biggest favorites on the board are the Baylor Bears at -16.5 versus the UCF Knight in the Fiesta Bowl on January 1. In fact, just one of the seven 2013-14 double-digit bowl favorites is under that 12-point magic number – Texas A&M -11.5 versus Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Big spreads usually mean big points. Those 45 bowl games with double-digit spreads have gone a balanced 24-20-1 Over/Under since 2003, but much like the current ATS trend, the Over is a profitable 7-5 O/U since 2011.
Here are the seven bowl games with double-digit spreads as of Dec. 18:
St. Petersburg Bowl: East Carolina (-14) vs. Ohio
Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame (-14.5) vs. Rutgers
Alamo Bowl: Oregon (-13.5) vs. Texas
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (-14) vs. Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M (-11.5) vs. Duke
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (-16.5) vs. Central Florida
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-15) vs. Oklahoma