Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.Most underrated Top 25 team: Auburn Tigers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Tigers won outright at College Station Saturday, defeating Texas A&M and moving to 6-1. Their only loss came on the road to LSU and they covered the points as 17-point underdogs in that game.
Auburn ran for 379 yards versus the Aggies last week and rank eighth in the country, averaging over 300 yards rushing per game. Auburn will have four very winnable games against unranked teams before finishing the season versus Alabama at home. Most overrated Top 25 team: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-0 SU, 1-5 ATS)
The Bulldogs are undefeated and they continue to climb their way up the rankings, despite the fact that they haven't really played anybody. Not only have they been padding their stats against unranked teams, they have failed to cover the spread in all but one of their games.
The Fresno State defense has allowed an average of more than 30 points per game - ranking 89th in the nation. The Bulldogs are giving up 9.5 points on the road this week versus San Diego State and they may have to be lucky to win this game outright. Unranked team that should be ranked: BYU Cougars (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
The Cougars have now won four straight since losing the “Holy War” to Utah in September. They have some tough games coming up against Boise State, Wisconsin and Notre Dame, but all of their remaining five contests are very winnable.
The defense that was so dominant last year hasn't had as much success, but Taysom Hill and the offense are picking up the slack. Hill threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns in Houston Saturday.