Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most underrated Top 25 team: Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
The Irish hadn't lost at South Bend since October of 2011, but it was bound to happen "Sooner" or later. The Sooners are still perfect after knocking off the Irish by a score of 35-21.
Blake Bell had a big game throwing for 232 yards and two scores and running for 59 more. Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in the nation, allowing an average of just 12 points per game. When you look at its schedule, it would appear that the Sooners have a chance at running the table. Most overrated Top 25 team: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)
The Bulldogs may be undefeated, but they haven't yet covered the spread, going 0-4 as favorites. Two of their wins have come by a margin of a single point and their defense has really struggled. Fresno State has allowed an average of over 38 points per game, ranking 114th in the nation.
The Bulldogs have a pretty soft schedule, so it's likely they could continue to pile up the wins. But as far as Top 25 teams go, I think they are the weakest of the bunch.
Unranked team that should be ranked: Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS)
The Badgers got a raw deal in Arizona a few weeks ago, losing as time expired even though they should have had an attempt at a game-winning field goal. Then last week they lost 31-24 on the road in Ohio.
The good news for Wisconsin is that it only has one more ranked opponent on the schedule, when the Badgers host Northwestern in their next game. After that they play their final six games against unranked teams.