USA Today Sports

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 44)


Giants’ 0-3 panic vs. Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge

When things get hot and hairy for Giants coach Tom Coughlin, he usually just goes out and wins a Super Bowl. But that seems like a tall order this year. Instead, Coughlin is playing it cool and telling the media that this weekend’s trip to Arrowhead isn’t a “must-win game”. Yeah, and Miley Cyrus is a virgin.

New York matches wits with a familiar foe in Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, who has plenty of tape on the Giants from his time in Philadelphia. Reid – AKA the Kool-Aid Man since sporting the Chiefs’ red – has already taken it to NFC East teams Dallas and Philadelphia this season. Kansas City has forced seven turnovers in those games while the Giants have coughed the ball up 14 times in three weeks. Oh Yeah!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47)


Bears' yards allowed per completion vs. Lions’ yards after the catch

Detroit’s offense is squeezing every bit of extra yardage out of its receivers, with guys like Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson tacking on gains after the catch. Burleson is out with a broken arm due to a pizza-related mishap but Bush is expected to return, giving the Lions some serious pitch-and-catch weapons in the backfield.

Chicago’s defense has done a good job creating chaos and plugging up the run, but has been vulnerable to the pass against three QBs not known for airing it out. The Bears are giving up 294.3 yards through the air per game – 24th – and is watching opponents pick up 13 yards per completion – second worst in the NFL. Top CB Charles Tillman, who will be checking Johnson, has missed time with a groin injury this week, only adding to Chicago’s issues.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39)


Jets’ careless play vs. Titans’ flawless football


Even with Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez out of action, the Jets haven’t been able to avoid the comedy of errors. New York has turned the ball over eight times this year – six INTs, two lost fumbles – and hasn’t been able to erase those mistakes by forcing turnovers on the other side of the ball. The J-E-T-S have one INT and have been able to scoop up only one of their five forced fumbles.

Tennessee has a clean sheet in the turnovers category so far this year, even though they have put the ball on the ground twice. Quarterback Jake Locker is brimming with confidence after his best career showing in last week’s win over San Diego and RB Chris Johnson is as sure-handed as ever, having fumbled just 15 times on 1,532 career carries. The Titans have also been able to snatch away the football, with three INTs and two fumble recoveries.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 57.5)


Eagles’ tired legs vs. Broncos' thin-air, no-huddle attack

Chip Kelly has gassed his team in the first three weeks of the season. The Eagles, running under a new up-tempo offense, played a frantic opening schedule with three games in 11 days, and looked tired and clumsy in a five-turnover loss to Kansas City last Thursday. Sure, Philadelphia has had nine days off to recharge the batteries but will find itself running on fumes quite quickly against its Week 4 opponent.

If dealing with Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ no-huddle attack wasn’t bad enough – 71 plays per game – opponents coming to Sports Authority Field at Mile High have to do so in the thin mountain air. To quote the great Ron Burgundy, “Face it. It’s Science”. Philadelphia’s defense buckled in the crunch versus K.C. and was on the field for more than 39 minutes. The Chiefs run a pretty conservative attack compared to Denver, which averages a league-best 0.596 points per play.

If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

            share   SHARE   rss   RSS FEED   email   EMAIL   print   PRINT
Hide All Responses
avatar

Posted by lancefin
9 months ago

If I ever guarantee another game ....I will bet against myself. Why when you swear by things you stand corrected? I was winning all but 5 minutes.......4 and 0......went to 1 and 3.......YIKES!!!!! Good news...SD over....and Denver/over made for a good close out 4 pick.....bitter sweet. lol
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

WHEN ONE TALK garbage...THERES A HIGH PROBALITY THAT HE SHALL EAT IT.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

when one talk s..h..i..t!!!!!!!! theres a high probability that one shall eat it.!!!
avatar

Posted by pick2
9 months ago

been out for few months i see noting has changed from last time ive been here jets and atl cover
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

Well I just posted a 4team parlay winner...100....so far so good..HOU/NYG+4/DET-3/TAMPA BAY...my free be to the forum. madmax cashdat!...lol
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

COLTS beat the 49ers 27 -7...in a blowout ..NOT!!!....look at the box score. 7-7 in the 1st quarter...10-7 by halftime. 3points in the 3rd. 1 scoring drive would've preserved the win.....then within 1minute!!! at the END of the 4TH!! quarter..... 14 points on 2plays on 2 goalline turnovers???...lol gimme a break. The score looks like Colts DOMINATED the 9ers. And on the other hand...you are suppose to capitalize on all lapses on either side of the ball...so I give Colts credit for that. Based on what I have seen...last week...JAGUARS 17....COLTS 13 ....+300 moneyline dog!!!
avatar

Posted by jrmybon
9 months ago

Madulamaximus opps Arizona and TB and playing each other so who to take there in yoursystem?
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

Tampa Bay..0-3 @home vs 1-2 Arizona @road. Media promoting doubt...TB inhouse problems, starting a rookie. Yet wise guys have them as favorite. Arizona has star receiver in Fitzgerald..TB counters with Revis @ corner.TB went up and down the field at will..but struggled in red zone @ Pats house and choked field goals. TB defense got many stops on Brady and failed to capitalize..Arizona will be lucky to see 17pts. Glennon is no slouch. Now the line is at -2.5!!!TB..If TB lose consider me a retard and disregard all my future analysis. Madmax..Cashdat!!!
avatar

Posted by jrmybon
9 months ago

TB, Houston, Giants, Arizona, Pitt all lost by double digits last week....so your system says they all cover this week? Also San Fran and St Louis lost by double digits last week.....do you just pick the best team in this one? Exclude Arizona who is on a buy When you say bet the double digit loser against the spread the next week does that mean even if they are giving points as well or always take the points? Example TB -1 Pitt -3
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

I mean, when the spread is -10 or more in value..example: 49ers lost as a -10.5 favorite. Lots of public doubt based on "last years" competitive matchup. Yet,the wise guys offered 49ers at -3 to -3.5?? Based on what I have experienced time and time again..70+% of the time(barring any key injury) if they are favored again...that -10 or more point favorite team that previously lost, will cover next time out. Of course you do your matchups on the regular..but there are times when I utilize things I call "betting proverbs" that allow you to pick and win without going into picparalysis by over analysis.
avatar

Posted by habs420
9 months ago

I just don't see how the Giants cover? Eli will be sacked every other snap.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

The 4pack madmax sp...PIC# 1)TAMPA BAY-1... PIC #2)NYG+4...PIC#3)HOUSTON+1 PIC#4)DETROIT-3.......100 TO WIN 1200. I NEED ALL WINS....ALL THE TIME. LIKE ALL THESE CAPS!!!!!!!!
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

4 pick closing!!!!!
avatar

Posted by petersrealpicks
9 months ago

DEN + GM+JET+SEA+BUFF THEYALL GOOD THIS WEEK!!!!!! GUYS GOOD LUCK
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

@JASON LOGAN...I really hope this blogline hangs around in efforts of regaining capper relations. My opinion is that the ppl here are mature intelligent minded ppl with great info and game analysis collectively in pursuit of one goal....BANGIN THE BOOKS!!!!!!!
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

The TRAP GAMES WILL BE.......JAGUARS+300........GIANTS+170.....No matchups just a betting philosophy that holds true..MOST of the time. Everybody including wheelchair bound kin will bet against the Jaguars. Heres the secret that's not really a secret if you been at this a while. Bet the double digit loser ATS the next game...You all see how 49ers vs Rams turned out....prophetic ..right? And Bet against the winner taking the points..OR straight out moneyline with no points. I REPEAT....INDIANAPOLIS WILL LOSE...OR THEY WILL NOT COVER.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

Look at tonights game with BYU...BYU just lost as a 7pt favorite straight out. Now they respond by covering -23.5 point spread. Poetically prophetic..huh. Just try before you buy and see for yourself.
avatar

Posted by WinsNow999
9 months ago

These four games; personally i see two dogs and two favorites covers....Dogs are NY jets and NY Giants ( Should be covered 4). and Favorite teams are Denver and Detroit...peace out!
avatar

Posted by future213
9 months ago

Chiefs easily covers. Denver covers. Chicago wins and covers ats. jets covers or maybe a push +3. (geno needs to prove he could win at road)
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

The interesting thing I seen in Geno...was his deep ball accuracy. The teams defense is ferocious..now with a qb with promise the D is even more turned up. But that Chiefs pick??? Giants just lost 38-0?? and looking for 1 win...That's a moneyline +170 dog scenario folks.The undefeated teams will reduce week by week. NFL teams respond at a pretty good clip. Beware of the hype is all im sayin.
avatar

Posted by nikki_santoro
9 months ago

lions are gonna lose this game straight up more less cover.. bears are the real deal and will prob split with gbay and win their division this year
avatar

Posted by besmith
9 months ago

just like Gmen mismatch with Carolina lmao
avatar

Posted by LIanafranks5
9 months ago

Jets, Lions and Giants will cover. I don't see the point of this article.
avatar

Posted by madulamaximus
9 months ago

How you got 43 thumbs down? These cappers got a lot to learn. That's a solid 2 pick with a shaky 3rd pick. And due to so much public disagreement is indicative of success. For some reason the payout lines are short and sweet. How are Bears "the real deal" beating a rebuilding Steeler team. NYG just lost 38-0 ..looking for win #1. Jets QB is an excellent deep passer and under the radar thus far..and Geno is playing hungry trying to prove himself...behind a defense that holds under 20pts. But vs TITANS AT HOME???? That's a pick you may wanna reconsider.
avatar

Posted by Ice4Blood
9 months ago

getmoney you are delusional if you don't see how close to complete collapse this team is right now... Denver is the last team they want to see, and I don't see how they are supposed to suddenly transform into a different team that what we've seen the past two weeks... its one thing to put your defense on the field for two-thirds of the game... but if your offense isn't producing points while you do it, that's a recipe for disaster in the longterm...
         1   2    next page    last page
You are currently not logged in.
Login | Signup | Help
You must be logged in to post a comment.

Top Response

Posted by Ice4Blood
9 months ago

"getmoney you are delusional if you don't see how close to complete collapse this team is right now... Denver is the last team they want to see, and I don't see how they are supposed to suddenly transform into a different team that what we've seen the..."