Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.Most underrated Top 25 team: Baylor Bears (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
I said that Baylor deserved to be in the Top 25 last week and I took some criticism from readers who noted that the Bear's victory in Week 1 came against an FCS team. Now, they did beat Wofford by a score of 69-3, and this is the same Terriers team that played a relatively close game losing to South Carolina 24-7 just nine months prior.
For those that weren't convinced by Baylor's Week 1 performance, perhaps a 70-13 win over the Buffalo Bulls will raise some eyebrows. Note that the Bulls played Ohio State in Week 1 and, trailing by just 10 points in the third quarter, a penalty nullified a touchdown that would have narrowed the gap to just a field goal. Most overrated Top 25 team: TCU Horned Frogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
There’s no shame in losing to LSU, but the Horned Frogs didn't come away with a lot of positives in that game. Their offense is struggling and losing starting quarterback Casey Pachall certainly won't help.
TCU defeated the South East Louisiana Lions in Week 2, but prior to this game the Lions had never scored more than 10 points against a BCS team. They had 14 points at halftime and trailed by just a field goal. Winning 38-17 was not an impressive result for a team that’s supposed to be one of the Top 25 in the country.
Unranked team that should be ranked: Northern Illinois Huskies (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
The Huskies only lost once last season and they avenged that loss with a win over Iowa Week 1. Looking at their schedule, they could be favored to win in each of their remaining 11 games. Jordan Lynch threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener and his speed makes him tough to defend.